The writing was on the wall. It was inevitable that someday the uneasy alliance between football and basketball factions in the Big East would deteriorate to the point that a split would be discussed openly and publicly. I won't recount the tale of how the Big East has come to this point but I will say that the basketball schools are much to blame for the current dilapidated state of the Big East because they never allowed the football schools to exercise enough power to keep the football conference stable. What has happened is that the 7 basketball schools Providence, St John's, Seton Hall, Villanova, Georgetown, and DePaul are unhappy with the current state of the Big East and either want more power or the right to leave. They could vote to disband the conference. With only 10 full members--the others being Cincinnati, UConn, and South Florida, currently in the conference that are not scheduled to depart and thus obliged to abstain in voting they would have the necessary two-thirds majority to do so. There seems however that there is problem though. Temple claims that they have the right to vote as well despite being only a football affiliate this year and not becoming a full member until next year. Conference Commissioner Mike Aresco seems to agree with Temple that they do have a vote and if Temple has a vote and votes no then the 7 Catholic schools no longer have the requisite majority.
The Atlantic Ten has already extended their hand to the 7 Catholics. Offering a 21 member conference with two divisions and a 20-game conference schedule in basketball. This would give the 7 Catholics a conference home, television dollars from the A-10's NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Shares, and the A-10's automatic bid to the tournament. The downside is that the A-10 has a lot of dead weight programs like Fordham, Rhode Island, and St Bonaventure that either are terrible at basketball, have no television market or following, or both.
Another idea I have been a proponent of is the creation of a new conference by cherry picking the best of the A-10. The only problem is this new conference would begin on a shaky financial grounds. All the schools involved would likely old their old conferences exit fees, the new conference would have no stockpile of tourney shares, and no immediate automatic bid to the tournament. This would be harder to accomplish.
I think their is one way that the Catholic 7 could pull off dissolution of the Big East and thus escape the Big East exit fees and give themselves a better financial footing regardless of whether they chose to go to the A-10 or found a new league. This would essentially require buying Temple's vote. The Catholic 7 could offer membership in their new league and payment of whatever fees required to put the Owls back into MAC football. (It might also require giving Temple back the $1 Million bribe they were required to pay Villanova in order to get in the Big East.) This might not be a bad idea for Temple. It would keep them with Northeastern basketball schools (for those who don't know Temple is a northeastern school that is good at basketball), sparing them the lengthy roadtrips in basketball and Olympic Sports that they would have to make if they stayed with the football faction. With the BCS era and the playoff era beginning the football schools no longer have an advantage over the MAC when it comes to access to the biggest post season stage in college football and as this season has demonstrated, when the MAC has a good year they are capable of breaking the glass ceiling.
Getting out of the Big East without paying exit fees would give the Catholic 7 and Temple a much better financial situation and they would be better able to afford starting their own league and lure away the cream of the A-10 to create a dream urban Catholic League spanning the Northeast and Midwest.
If dissolution by vote and/or an amicable split between the factions cannot be attained then I think, like I have reiterated multiple times on this blog, the Big East should simply start behaving like two conferences under one umbrella. Add ECU and Tulsa as full members and put them in a division with the football schools while UConn and Temple play with the Catholic 7 in two divisions of 9. Each division plays double round-robin conference schedule and a handful of crossover games with the other division to fill out the conference schedule. The Catholic 7's association with the "unworthy" C-USA upgrades would be minimized as would the effect on their RPI by playing weaker schools.
Tuesday, December 11, 2012
Sunday, December 9, 2012
Reviving the Old 16-Team WAC in the Mountain West Conference
Some off us remember the old 16-member WAC. It was with us just 3 short seasons from 1996 to 1998 and was the first attempt at a mega conference. Teams were divided into 4 4-team scheduling pods that looked like this:
Pod 1: Hawaii, San Diego St, Fresno St, San Jose St
Pod 2: UNLV, Air Force, Colorado St, Wyoming
Pod 3: BYU, Utah, New Mexico, UTEP
Pod 4: Tulsa, Texas Christian, Southern Methodist, Rice
The 16 member WAC was the product of the collapse of two conferences, the Big West's football conference and the Southwest Conference, and the WAC taking pity on those homeless programs and taking them in. It unfortunately was aborted pre-maturely by a consortium of old guard schools known as "the Gang of Five", who were unhappy that they did not get to play each other as they did prior to expansion, at a secret meeting at the Denver Airport laid plans to create a new conference, the Mountain West. Of course, after that fateful airport meeting 8 members departed and a ninth, TCU, followed in 2001. Gradually, more WAC schools drifted into the MWC including schools like Boise St, Nevada, and Utah St who were not part of the original 16-team WAC but joined the conference in the years following 1999 to replace the departed schools. The MWC has gone to the WAC to grab replacement schools because Utah departed for the Pac 12, TCU for the Big 12, a disgruntled BYU declared independence, and Boise St and San Diego St became embroiled in a desperate attempt by the Big East to stay relevant by adding football only members in the western United States.
Internet rumor de jour is that the MWC has not only been trying to lure San Diego St and Boise St back into the fold but SMU and Houston as well. The Big East, which those four schools are slated to join in 2013, received a crushing blow during the Thanksgiving Raids, losing its two best remaining programs, Louisville and Rutgers to the ACC and Big Ten respectively. The Big East is terribly unstable and its list of cast members in 2014 is hardly an all-star cast; it can't even be called a Conference USA all star cast because it included C-USA cellar dwellers Memphis and Tulane. Since I brought up Tulane I should probably mention that the Big East's solution to losing Rutgers and Louisville was to invite Tulane as an all sports member and East Carolina as a football only member. East Carolina also received a halfhearted promise from the Big East that they would consider bumping them up to full member status once this round of realignment finished shaking out and the Big East figured out who their 14th football school was going to be and whether or not school #14 was going to require full membership; if they did, the ECU presumably would as well.
If the MWC was able to bring/keep those 4 programs into the fold it would give the conference 14 members for football. 14 member conferences are all the rage and very en vogue right now but going to 16 has some advantages besides mere nostalgia. The ability to pick out two schools in proximity to them to come along to the MWC is one of the "carrots" the MWC has extended SMU and Houston. This would be a win-win for both sides as SMU and Houston would get travel partners but the MWC would get an even stronger presence in the football-loving and very populous state of Texas. The leading candidates to be SMU and Houston's "prom dates" are UTEP, Tulsa, and UTSA.
UTEP has some history with the current MWC schools. UTEP was an old guard member of the WAC; they were there from 1967-2005 and left the WAC with a block of former SWC members (including SMU) to join an expanded and football-centric C-USA (which included another SWC refugee, Houston). The Miners have a solid following; they attracted an average of just over 29,000 fans a game this past season. The downside to the Miners is that they bring the smallest market of the candidates I mentioned (98th largest nationally) and they have not had much success on the gridiron in recent years. There also might be some bad blood between UTEP and some current MWC schools in that UTEP abandoned some of them when they left the WAC. It is also likely that there are some hard feelings on the part of the MWC schools because they have repeatedly sought out UTEP for membership (like back when they added San Jose St and Utah St) and UTEP rebuffed their advances. Another thing to consider is that UTEP left to go be in C-USA to be with East Texas schools because UTEP wanted to be associated with the East Texas schools, not because the East Texas schools had any particular fondness for trips out to El Paso.
Tulsa is a small private school but they have been the most successful of the programs I'm considering for MWC membership winning C-USA West 4 times and going on to win the C-USA title game twice. They would bring both a new market (61st nationally) and a new state into the WMC. They were also part of the 16-team MWC and have spent the past 8 years with Houston and SMU in C-USA. Their average attendance is quite a bit smaller than UTEP's--they only averaged a home game attendance average of 20,418 this past season. This is purely speculative but I believe than Houston and SMU also have considerable respect for Tulsa, SMU in particular because both schools are private, religious schools.
UTSA is the third school I'm going to throw into the mix. The program is a young start up. They bring no pedigree, history, or ties with any MWC schools but what they do bring is loads of potential and television sets. They are in the largest market of these three leading candidates as San Antonio is the 37th largest in the US. It is also a large market free of competition from a local NFL team in a state that loves football. UTSA's attendance this year was comparable to UTEP's so folks in San Antonio are clearly showing some interest in the new program. I think the UTSA program has enormous growth potential and that is why I think the MWC would be foolish to overlook the Roadrunnners.
I imagine that there are a few other candidates out there as well. Brigham Young is the obvious one but I am not entirely convinced that BYU can be lured back into the fold without giving them some considerable concessions regarding revenue sharing and tier 3 media rights. It's also up in the air whether or not BYU would want to be in a "Forgotten 5" league. Independence seems to be treating them alright and they get a nice television contract with ESPN but they do lack access to the playoff and playoff money which would be one perk of MWC membership. Tulane is another school that could be in the mix. SMU and Houston liked the Green Wave enough to allow them to become part of the Big East and while they have been atrocious on the gridiron lately the program is making strides and demonstrating a commitment to football by building an on campus stadium. New Orleans is also a pretty big television market, albeit they have to compete with the Saints and Hornets for fans. New Mexico St could be thrown on the list too but they offer very little to the MWC compared to the other schools I mentioned. The same with Rice--while they were in the old WAC U of H already would give the MWC a Houston presence.
The new 16 member MWC should definitely go back to the Pod system of the old WAC. Many of the schools involved were part of the old 16 member WAC and would be in the same pods with the same pod-mates as they were over 2 decades ago (I've bolded members of the 16 member WAC):
Pod 1: Hawaii, San Jose St, Fresno St, San Diego St
Pod 2: Nevada, UNLV, Boise St, Utah St
Pod 3: Wyoming, Colorado St, Air Force, New Mexico
Pod 4: Southern Methodist, Houston, 2 of Tulsa/UTEP/UTSA
As far as basketball goes I think the MWC will be alright with 15 members and giving Hawaii full membership won't be necessary. For basketball and other sports the MWC could go to a 3-pod system for scheduling where each school would play each of their 4 pod-mates twice and the other 10 members once for a total of 18 games:
Pod A: San Jose St, Fresno St, San Diego St, Nevada, UNLV
Pod B: Boise St, Utah St, Wyoming, Colorado St, Air Force
Pod C: New Mexico, Southern Methodist, Houston, 2 of: Tulsa/UTEP/UTSA
I am going to give my endorsement for MWC membership to Tulsa and UTSA. Tulsa brings a strong program and UTSA brings a television market and loads of potential. Tulsa and San Antonio are both far larger than El Paso and if its one thing we have all learned from conference realignment these past few years it is all about television markets. This is very unfortunate for UTEP, as they would be left out of the loop and stuck in a watered down C-USA that no longer had the same strong East Texas presence but UTEP has had multiple chances to get into the MWC and now they could very well find themselves without a spot.
Pod 1: Hawaii, San Diego St, Fresno St, San Jose St
Pod 2: UNLV, Air Force, Colorado St, Wyoming
Pod 3: BYU, Utah, New Mexico, UTEP
Pod 4: Tulsa, Texas Christian, Southern Methodist, Rice
The 16 member WAC was the product of the collapse of two conferences, the Big West's football conference and the Southwest Conference, and the WAC taking pity on those homeless programs and taking them in. It unfortunately was aborted pre-maturely by a consortium of old guard schools known as "the Gang of Five", who were unhappy that they did not get to play each other as they did prior to expansion, at a secret meeting at the Denver Airport laid plans to create a new conference, the Mountain West. Of course, after that fateful airport meeting 8 members departed and a ninth, TCU, followed in 2001. Gradually, more WAC schools drifted into the MWC including schools like Boise St, Nevada, and Utah St who were not part of the original 16-team WAC but joined the conference in the years following 1999 to replace the departed schools. The MWC has gone to the WAC to grab replacement schools because Utah departed for the Pac 12, TCU for the Big 12, a disgruntled BYU declared independence, and Boise St and San Diego St became embroiled in a desperate attempt by the Big East to stay relevant by adding football only members in the western United States.
Internet rumor de jour is that the MWC has not only been trying to lure San Diego St and Boise St back into the fold but SMU and Houston as well. The Big East, which those four schools are slated to join in 2013, received a crushing blow during the Thanksgiving Raids, losing its two best remaining programs, Louisville and Rutgers to the ACC and Big Ten respectively. The Big East is terribly unstable and its list of cast members in 2014 is hardly an all-star cast; it can't even be called a Conference USA all star cast because it included C-USA cellar dwellers Memphis and Tulane. Since I brought up Tulane I should probably mention that the Big East's solution to losing Rutgers and Louisville was to invite Tulane as an all sports member and East Carolina as a football only member. East Carolina also received a halfhearted promise from the Big East that they would consider bumping them up to full member status once this round of realignment finished shaking out and the Big East figured out who their 14th football school was going to be and whether or not school #14 was going to require full membership; if they did, the ECU presumably would as well.
If the MWC was able to bring/keep those 4 programs into the fold it would give the conference 14 members for football. 14 member conferences are all the rage and very en vogue right now but going to 16 has some advantages besides mere nostalgia. The ability to pick out two schools in proximity to them to come along to the MWC is one of the "carrots" the MWC has extended SMU and Houston. This would be a win-win for both sides as SMU and Houston would get travel partners but the MWC would get an even stronger presence in the football-loving and very populous state of Texas. The leading candidates to be SMU and Houston's "prom dates" are UTEP, Tulsa, and UTSA.
UTEP has some history with the current MWC schools. UTEP was an old guard member of the WAC; they were there from 1967-2005 and left the WAC with a block of former SWC members (including SMU) to join an expanded and football-centric C-USA (which included another SWC refugee, Houston). The Miners have a solid following; they attracted an average of just over 29,000 fans a game this past season. The downside to the Miners is that they bring the smallest market of the candidates I mentioned (98th largest nationally) and they have not had much success on the gridiron in recent years. There also might be some bad blood between UTEP and some current MWC schools in that UTEP abandoned some of them when they left the WAC. It is also likely that there are some hard feelings on the part of the MWC schools because they have repeatedly sought out UTEP for membership (like back when they added San Jose St and Utah St) and UTEP rebuffed their advances. Another thing to consider is that UTEP left to go be in C-USA to be with East Texas schools because UTEP wanted to be associated with the East Texas schools, not because the East Texas schools had any particular fondness for trips out to El Paso.
Tulsa is a small private school but they have been the most successful of the programs I'm considering for MWC membership winning C-USA West 4 times and going on to win the C-USA title game twice. They would bring both a new market (61st nationally) and a new state into the WMC. They were also part of the 16-team MWC and have spent the past 8 years with Houston and SMU in C-USA. Their average attendance is quite a bit smaller than UTEP's--they only averaged a home game attendance average of 20,418 this past season. This is purely speculative but I believe than Houston and SMU also have considerable respect for Tulsa, SMU in particular because both schools are private, religious schools.
UTSA is the third school I'm going to throw into the mix. The program is a young start up. They bring no pedigree, history, or ties with any MWC schools but what they do bring is loads of potential and television sets. They are in the largest market of these three leading candidates as San Antonio is the 37th largest in the US. It is also a large market free of competition from a local NFL team in a state that loves football. UTSA's attendance this year was comparable to UTEP's so folks in San Antonio are clearly showing some interest in the new program. I think the UTSA program has enormous growth potential and that is why I think the MWC would be foolish to overlook the Roadrunnners.
I imagine that there are a few other candidates out there as well. Brigham Young is the obvious one but I am not entirely convinced that BYU can be lured back into the fold without giving them some considerable concessions regarding revenue sharing and tier 3 media rights. It's also up in the air whether or not BYU would want to be in a "Forgotten 5" league. Independence seems to be treating them alright and they get a nice television contract with ESPN but they do lack access to the playoff and playoff money which would be one perk of MWC membership. Tulane is another school that could be in the mix. SMU and Houston liked the Green Wave enough to allow them to become part of the Big East and while they have been atrocious on the gridiron lately the program is making strides and demonstrating a commitment to football by building an on campus stadium. New Orleans is also a pretty big television market, albeit they have to compete with the Saints and Hornets for fans. New Mexico St could be thrown on the list too but they offer very little to the MWC compared to the other schools I mentioned. The same with Rice--while they were in the old WAC U of H already would give the MWC a Houston presence.
The new 16 member MWC should definitely go back to the Pod system of the old WAC. Many of the schools involved were part of the old 16 member WAC and would be in the same pods with the same pod-mates as they were over 2 decades ago (I've bolded members of the 16 member WAC):
Pod 1: Hawaii, San Jose St, Fresno St, San Diego St
Pod 2: Nevada, UNLV, Boise St, Utah St
Pod 3: Wyoming, Colorado St, Air Force, New Mexico
Pod 4: Southern Methodist, Houston, 2 of Tulsa/UTEP/UTSA
As far as basketball goes I think the MWC will be alright with 15 members and giving Hawaii full membership won't be necessary. For basketball and other sports the MWC could go to a 3-pod system for scheduling where each school would play each of their 4 pod-mates twice and the other 10 members once for a total of 18 games:
Pod A: San Jose St, Fresno St, San Diego St, Nevada, UNLV
Pod B: Boise St, Utah St, Wyoming, Colorado St, Air Force
Pod C: New Mexico, Southern Methodist, Houston, 2 of: Tulsa/UTEP/UTSA
I am going to give my endorsement for MWC membership to Tulsa and UTSA. Tulsa brings a strong program and UTSA brings a television market and loads of potential. Tulsa and San Antonio are both far larger than El Paso and if its one thing we have all learned from conference realignment these past few years it is all about television markets. This is very unfortunate for UTEP, as they would be left out of the loop and stuck in a watered down C-USA that no longer had the same strong East Texas presence but UTEP has had multiple chances to get into the MWC and now they could very well find themselves without a spot.
Tuesday, December 4, 2012
The Big East's next realignment move--Tulsa or UTSA
The Big East recently lost Rutgers and Louisville in the Thanksgiving realignment and picked up Tulane for all sports and East Carolina for all sports, however it's believed that East Carolina will likely get promoted to full member status once this round of realignment sorts itself out.
As it stands now the Big East of 2014 will have 16 full members ( 9 of whom play FBS football) and 3 football affiliates. However if Navy does indeed join as a football affiliate in 2015 then the league will be unbalanced at 13 football schools and will need an additional school to reach equilibrium.
BYU, Air Force, and even Fresno St are not interested. They aren't coming, plain and simple. It is time for Mike Aresco to consider other western options that will hopefully keep football affiliates Boise St and San Diego from darting.
The schools Aresco should be considering are UTSA and Tulsa. Both would fit nicely in a western division alongside San Diego St, Boise St, Houston, Southern Methodist, Tulane, and Memphis. Tulsa is a private school that has a history of success and some history with SMU and Houston from their WAC and C-USA days. Memphis, UCF, and Tulane were also members of C-USA during Tulsa's tenure there. The media market they would bring is a modest one, the 61st largest but the school has a loyal following. The Golden Hurricane also bring with them a respectable basketball pedigree having a history of success in the NIT in years that Memphis carried the C-USA banner at the big dance.
Another option out there is a start up program with a ton of upside--the UTSA Roadrunners. Yes, their football team is brand new and they have zero pedigree to speak of but they are in the 37th largest television market in America, a market that, aside from the Spurs, is devoid of professional sports competing for attention with UTSA. It's a program that could grow from nothing in much the same way that USF and UCF did.
The addition of either of this programs, alongside the promotion of ECU to full member status, would bring the Big East up to 18 members. At this point for basketball the Big East should consider divisional play, rather than full round-robin and playing a rival twice. Basketball divisions could be:
North---Providence, UConn, St John's, Seton Hall, Villanova, Temple, Georgetown, DePaul, Marquette
South--Cincinnati, ECU, USF, UCF, Memphis, Tulane, Houston, SMU, Tulsa
This would keep the C-USA legacies together and preserve the Northeastern and Catholic bonds among the remaining Big East founders. This would also probably result in more games with television appeal as their would be more clashes against regional rivals who have history together.
As it stands now the Big East of 2014 will have 16 full members ( 9 of whom play FBS football) and 3 football affiliates. However if Navy does indeed join as a football affiliate in 2015 then the league will be unbalanced at 13 football schools and will need an additional school to reach equilibrium.
BYU, Air Force, and even Fresno St are not interested. They aren't coming, plain and simple. It is time for Mike Aresco to consider other western options that will hopefully keep football affiliates Boise St and San Diego from darting.
The schools Aresco should be considering are UTSA and Tulsa. Both would fit nicely in a western division alongside San Diego St, Boise St, Houston, Southern Methodist, Tulane, and Memphis. Tulsa is a private school that has a history of success and some history with SMU and Houston from their WAC and C-USA days. Memphis, UCF, and Tulane were also members of C-USA during Tulsa's tenure there. The media market they would bring is a modest one, the 61st largest but the school has a loyal following. The Golden Hurricane also bring with them a respectable basketball pedigree having a history of success in the NIT in years that Memphis carried the C-USA banner at the big dance.
Another option out there is a start up program with a ton of upside--the UTSA Roadrunners. Yes, their football team is brand new and they have zero pedigree to speak of but they are in the 37th largest television market in America, a market that, aside from the Spurs, is devoid of professional sports competing for attention with UTSA. It's a program that could grow from nothing in much the same way that USF and UCF did.
The addition of either of this programs, alongside the promotion of ECU to full member status, would bring the Big East up to 18 members. At this point for basketball the Big East should consider divisional play, rather than full round-robin and playing a rival twice. Basketball divisions could be:
North---Providence, UConn, St John's, Seton Hall, Villanova, Temple, Georgetown, DePaul, Marquette
South--Cincinnati, ECU, USF, UCF, Memphis, Tulane, Houston, SMU, Tulsa
This would keep the C-USA legacies together and preserve the Northeastern and Catholic bonds among the remaining Big East founders. This would also probably result in more games with television appeal as their would be more clashes against regional rivals who have history together.
Thursday, November 29, 2012
The Thanksgiving 2012 Realignment
In a span of 8 days, the landscape of college athletics was radically altered. First came the announcement that Maryland and Rutgers were headed to the Big 10. Then came word of a preemptive strike by the Big East who took Tulane as a full member and East Carolina for football only. After a few days of mulling, the faction of the ACC led by Boston College and Florida St prevailed over the Tobacco Road voting block and Louisville became an ACC school, much to the chagrin of Connecticut, who thought they were the obvious choice, and Cincinnati, who at the eleventh hour had started to campaign for inclusion. C-USA, having lost 2 schools opted to get their numbers back to 14 by taking Middle Tennessee and Florida Atlantic of the Sunbelt Conference. Somewhere in that melee Denver decided to depart the dying WAC for the more stable Summit Conference and was promptly replaced with Grand Canyon University from Division II in an effort to keep the WAC alive for another season or two.
While on the surface it looks like things may have subsided, I am doubtful that this round of expansion has come to a halt. The ACC took Louisville with the understanding that Cincinnati and Connecticut would still be around if they needed them. This would, of course be because the Big 12 decided to raid the ACC. There is also an internet rumor circulating that the Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC will work in tandem to strip the ACC of its best universities, creating larger shares of the playoff and television pot for themselves. The theory is that the Big Ten would take Virginia and North Carolina, which would them allow the SEC to take North Carolina St and Virginia Tech. The Big 12 could then take their pick of what is left, either selecting their 6 favorite schools to become a 16 member conference like the SEC and Big Ten, or merging with the remaining ACC programs. Do I believe this rumor? No; but stranger things have happened in the wacky world of college sports.
Things are also not completely settled out in the Big East. As of now, the Big East has 16 all-sports members for 2014--7 non-football and 9 football playing members. Should all the affiliates stay their will be 3 football affiliates in 2014--Boise St, San Diego St, and East Carolina, with a fourth, Navy, coming in 2015. Even if the Big East maintains all of it members and those schools who have pledged to join in the near future they will still need one more football school in 2015 to get to an even 14. It might require handing out a full membership at this point to entice a school to join at this point. If so, then ECU probably gets full membership as well.
Big East expansion will likely come at the expense of C-USA. Tulsa could perhaps be their choice. This would mean that once more C-USA would have to look for the Sunbelt for replacements. One rumor is that they would likely consider Western Kentucky and or WAC orphan New Mexico St.
The Sunbelt is already down to 10 members, 8 of whom play football. They will inevitably have to look to FCS for their replacements but there is a wide selection to choose from--leading candidates are Georgia Southern and Appalachian St but other possibilities include Jacksonville St, James Madison, Liberty, Lamar, and Sam Houston St. Taking back former member New Mexico St is another option on the table for the Sunbelt.
The Sunbelt dipping into FCS to replenish its ranks would spread the cascade. The SoCon would look to the Big South or perhaps the OVC to replace its lost schools. Big South football is already down to 6 programs and the loss of any more would bring the question of the league's survival as a football conference into question. Then there is the unstable Colonial Athletic Association; should other FCS dominoes start to move this hybrid league could face serious trouble and be forced to reevaluate its future and possibly let America East take over administration of the football league.
There is also the what ifs of the Big East's western gambit. If Boise St is no longer satisfied with the Big East's line up and no longer see that league as an upgrade then they could decide to forgo those plans and stay in the MWC and San Diego St would follow. Perhaps, for the right financial incentives BYU might move back as well. This would likely mean robbing C-USA of 1 to 3 schools or sending New Mexico St a lifeline by including them in their plans.
In conclusion, realignment is not yet over; it has only begun.
While on the surface it looks like things may have subsided, I am doubtful that this round of expansion has come to a halt. The ACC took Louisville with the understanding that Cincinnati and Connecticut would still be around if they needed them. This would, of course be because the Big 12 decided to raid the ACC. There is also an internet rumor circulating that the Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC will work in tandem to strip the ACC of its best universities, creating larger shares of the playoff and television pot for themselves. The theory is that the Big Ten would take Virginia and North Carolina, which would them allow the SEC to take North Carolina St and Virginia Tech. The Big 12 could then take their pick of what is left, either selecting their 6 favorite schools to become a 16 member conference like the SEC and Big Ten, or merging with the remaining ACC programs. Do I believe this rumor? No; but stranger things have happened in the wacky world of college sports.
Things are also not completely settled out in the Big East. As of now, the Big East has 16 all-sports members for 2014--7 non-football and 9 football playing members. Should all the affiliates stay their will be 3 football affiliates in 2014--Boise St, San Diego St, and East Carolina, with a fourth, Navy, coming in 2015. Even if the Big East maintains all of it members and those schools who have pledged to join in the near future they will still need one more football school in 2015 to get to an even 14. It might require handing out a full membership at this point to entice a school to join at this point. If so, then ECU probably gets full membership as well.
Big East expansion will likely come at the expense of C-USA. Tulsa could perhaps be their choice. This would mean that once more C-USA would have to look for the Sunbelt for replacements. One rumor is that they would likely consider Western Kentucky and or WAC orphan New Mexico St.
The Sunbelt is already down to 10 members, 8 of whom play football. They will inevitably have to look to FCS for their replacements but there is a wide selection to choose from--leading candidates are Georgia Southern and Appalachian St but other possibilities include Jacksonville St, James Madison, Liberty, Lamar, and Sam Houston St. Taking back former member New Mexico St is another option on the table for the Sunbelt.
The Sunbelt dipping into FCS to replenish its ranks would spread the cascade. The SoCon would look to the Big South or perhaps the OVC to replace its lost schools. Big South football is already down to 6 programs and the loss of any more would bring the question of the league's survival as a football conference into question. Then there is the unstable Colonial Athletic Association; should other FCS dominoes start to move this hybrid league could face serious trouble and be forced to reevaluate its future and possibly let America East take over administration of the football league.
There is also the what ifs of the Big East's western gambit. If Boise St is no longer satisfied with the Big East's line up and no longer see that league as an upgrade then they could decide to forgo those plans and stay in the MWC and San Diego St would follow. Perhaps, for the right financial incentives BYU might move back as well. This would likely mean robbing C-USA of 1 to 3 schools or sending New Mexico St a lifeline by including them in their plans.
In conclusion, realignment is not yet over; it has only begun.
Monday, November 19, 2012
The Big East Divorce
With the loss of Rutgers and presumed loss of UConn the Big East is left dazed and confused. ESPN is reporting that future football affiliates San Diego St and Boise St are in discussions with the Mountain West about cancelling their Big East departure and remaining in the conference. Furthermore, it's been speculated that the Big East's top remaining Catholic basketball schools--Georgetown, Villanova, and St John's, could be part of a bold move by the ACC to claim the Eastern Seaboard and capture the basketball glory of the old Big East. The Big East could also potentially be losing some of their best remaining football programs to an expanding Big 12. The US Naval Academy is supposed to be joining the BE for football in 201 but at this point if I'm Navy I'd be cancelling those plans and remaining independent.
Provided UConn, Rutgers, San Diego St, Boise St, and Navy are all lost on the football side and in basketball the Big East loses Georgetown, Villanova, and St John's, we're looking at a Big East consisting of:
Providence
Seton Hall
DePaul
Marquette
Temple*
Cincinnati*
Louisville*
Memphis*
USF*
UCF*
Southern Methodist*
Houston*
At this point I think its time for a divorce. The football and basketball factions are better of separate than together at this point.
For the four basketball schools I would consider asking the top members of the Atlantic 10 about joining them in a new league. St Louis, Xavier, Dayton, UMass, Richmond, George Washington and Duquesne are schools I'd be looking at but that's not to say that I'd take them all. I think the goal should be 12 schools, 6 in the Midwest and 6 in the Northeast. If Villanova no longer in the picture I'd consider adding St Joeseph's as well to keep the Philadelphia market--or--I'd see if Temple could work out a deal to go with the basketball schools but play as a football only member of the new conference created by the old BE football schools. This conference would be attractive in large markets in the Northeast and Midwest.
As for the football schools, I think their best is to recapture the essence of the old Metro/C-USA. I would go after the best programs and markets remaining in the current C-USA to do it. East Carolina, Tulane, and Tulsa all seem like logical picks but I think I'd also gamble on a couple up-an-comers like UTSA and Charlotte. This league could potentially look like this:
WEST EAST
UTSA Charlotte
SMU East Carolina
Houston USF
Tulsa UCF
Tulane Cincinnati
Memphis Louisville
Provided UConn, Rutgers, San Diego St, Boise St, and Navy are all lost on the football side and in basketball the Big East loses Georgetown, Villanova, and St John's, we're looking at a Big East consisting of:
Providence
Seton Hall
DePaul
Marquette
Temple*
Cincinnati*
Louisville*
Memphis*
USF*
UCF*
Southern Methodist*
Houston*
At this point I think its time for a divorce. The football and basketball factions are better of separate than together at this point.
For the four basketball schools I would consider asking the top members of the Atlantic 10 about joining them in a new league. St Louis, Xavier, Dayton, UMass, Richmond, George Washington and Duquesne are schools I'd be looking at but that's not to say that I'd take them all. I think the goal should be 12 schools, 6 in the Midwest and 6 in the Northeast. If Villanova no longer in the picture I'd consider adding St Joeseph's as well to keep the Philadelphia market--or--I'd see if Temple could work out a deal to go with the basketball schools but play as a football only member of the new conference created by the old BE football schools. This conference would be attractive in large markets in the Northeast and Midwest.
As for the football schools, I think their best is to recapture the essence of the old Metro/C-USA. I would go after the best programs and markets remaining in the current C-USA to do it. East Carolina, Tulane, and Tulsa all seem like logical picks but I think I'd also gamble on a couple up-an-comers like UTSA and Charlotte. This league could potentially look like this:
WEST EAST
UTSA Charlotte
SMU East Carolina
Houston USF
Tulsa UCF
Tulane Cincinnati
Memphis Louisville
The Big Ten Appocalypse--Delany opens Pandora's Box What does this mean for everyone else?
Well, just when you think things are about to settle in college sports all chaos ensues. The Big Ten is taking Maryland and Rutgers in order to penetrate Eastern television markets. This is a big blow to both the ACC and the Big East and could in fact end the Big East as we know it depending on how the ACC reacts to the loss of Maryland.
It is strongly believed by most the Connecticut of the Big East will get tapped to replace Maryland in the ACC. There is also conjecture that the ACC will not stop at Connecticut and in order to regain their lost eastern markets they could reach out and take Villanova, Georgetown, and St. John's of the Big East to shore up eastern basketball and the result would be a 14 member football conference and an 18 member basketball conference. This would be the best end result for the ACC. The problem is that the Big 12 could get nervous about this realignment and start making overtures to ACC members like Clemson and Florida St. The loss of these members could potentially cripple the ACC as a football conference.
And now we come to the Big East: If the ACC expansion comes to pass we are potentially looking at a Big East consisting of Providence, Seton Hall, Marquette, DePaul, Temple, Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, South Florida, Central Florida, Houston, Southern Methodist, and football affiliates Boise St, San Diego St, and Navy. I don't even know if a league like that has the will to stay together as a cogent athletic conference. They would be devoid of all of their most attractive members and markets and the basketball product would not be that great as I only see maybe 4 marketable programs on that list. There is also the possibility that the Big 12 becomes active in the expansion game and seeks out schools like Louisville, BYU, and other programs that I'm hesitant to speculate about.
The Big East's survival really depends on who is left there when this conference bloodbath is finished. It might be best for the remaining members to go their separate ways, with the upper south, Florida, and Texas schools starting a new league reminiscent of the old Metro Conference with their old C-USA friends Tulsa, Tulane, East Carolina, and up-and-comers UTSA and Charlotte. Marquette, DePaul, Seton Hall, Providence, and Temple could seek refuge in the Atlantic 10 or attempt to cherry pick the A-10 for its most attractive programs.
This expansion is bound to send shock waves across the landscape of college athletics--the A-10 will be effected and likely the CAA as well and once the shock wave hits the CAA is impacted so too could every small conference on the Eastern seaboard--the SoCon, the Patriot, America East, NEC, MAAC, Big South, Atlantic Sun, and maybe even in land with the Ohio Valley Conference. The shuffling panic caused by the football contingent will no doubt create a cascade among C-USA, the Sunbelt, and FCS super powers, among them Appalachian St and Georgia Southern. Should the Big 12 get caught up in the ruckus then the raids will spread to the heartland and no conference would be safe.
It is strongly believed by most the Connecticut of the Big East will get tapped to replace Maryland in the ACC. There is also conjecture that the ACC will not stop at Connecticut and in order to regain their lost eastern markets they could reach out and take Villanova, Georgetown, and St. John's of the Big East to shore up eastern basketball and the result would be a 14 member football conference and an 18 member basketball conference. This would be the best end result for the ACC. The problem is that the Big 12 could get nervous about this realignment and start making overtures to ACC members like Clemson and Florida St. The loss of these members could potentially cripple the ACC as a football conference.
And now we come to the Big East: If the ACC expansion comes to pass we are potentially looking at a Big East consisting of Providence, Seton Hall, Marquette, DePaul, Temple, Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, South Florida, Central Florida, Houston, Southern Methodist, and football affiliates Boise St, San Diego St, and Navy. I don't even know if a league like that has the will to stay together as a cogent athletic conference. They would be devoid of all of their most attractive members and markets and the basketball product would not be that great as I only see maybe 4 marketable programs on that list. There is also the possibility that the Big 12 becomes active in the expansion game and seeks out schools like Louisville, BYU, and other programs that I'm hesitant to speculate about.
The Big East's survival really depends on who is left there when this conference bloodbath is finished. It might be best for the remaining members to go their separate ways, with the upper south, Florida, and Texas schools starting a new league reminiscent of the old Metro Conference with their old C-USA friends Tulsa, Tulane, East Carolina, and up-and-comers UTSA and Charlotte. Marquette, DePaul, Seton Hall, Providence, and Temple could seek refuge in the Atlantic 10 or attempt to cherry pick the A-10 for its most attractive programs.
This expansion is bound to send shock waves across the landscape of college athletics--the A-10 will be effected and likely the CAA as well and once the shock wave hits the CAA is impacted so too could every small conference on the Eastern seaboard--the SoCon, the Patriot, America East, NEC, MAAC, Big South, Atlantic Sun, and maybe even in land with the Ohio Valley Conference. The shuffling panic caused by the football contingent will no doubt create a cascade among C-USA, the Sunbelt, and FCS super powers, among them Appalachian St and Georgia Southern. Should the Big 12 get caught up in the ruckus then the raids will spread to the heartland and no conference would be safe.
Wednesday, November 14, 2012
Looking at Big East Expansion Candidates (Again)
Alright, same story different day. The Big East still needs to add a member and no one is really jumping up and down screaming "Pick me! Pick me!" right now. So let's take a look at the candidates in order of appeal:
Brigham Young---BYU is the best program available. They have a broad nationwide following among Mormons. They are also a western school, which fits with the Big East's plan to secure its new western flank. BYU does has its setbacks. They are quite demanding in what they want from the Big East regarding televsion revenue and media rights for byuTV. Joining the Big East would mean giving up a lucrative tv deal with ESPN and giving up their new found scheduling independence. BYU also has its eyes on the Big 12.
Air Force---This service academy has a nationwide following and a ton of appeal to media partners. They also fit into the Big East's master western plan. They would be a natural cross-division rival for Navy as well. The problem that the Big East has ran into with AFA is that they are steadfastly loyal to the Mountain West Conference. This is surprising because of their old voting block, "The Gang of Five", Colorado St and Wyoming are the only other members that remain in the league. It would be nice if AFA would simply make arrangements to play these two schools annually out-of-conference (along with their other rival Army) and join up with the Big East.
Army---Army is in this discussion only because they have national appeal and could be used as leverage to get Air Force into the conference. Army struggled when it spent a few seasons in the old C-USA and this conference is better than the first generation of C-USA. Army doesn't want that kind of embarrassment again. Army would really only make sense in the Big East desired to go to 16 members and they were part of a package deal with AFA.
Fresno St---The Bulldogs make it onto this list as an alternative to BYU and AFA should neither of those schools avail themselves to the Big East. They are a solid western mid major, thus fitting into Aresco's plan to secure Boise and San Diego St's membership. Fresno St would jump at the opportunity if it presented itself.
East Carolina--I still hold out hope for the Pirates. They don't fit into the western scheme at all but what I like about them is that they pack their 50,000+ seat stadium each week and they travel well to bowl games. It would be prudent to add them in order to secure bowl tie ins with southern bowl games. In 2014 the bowl deals all get renegotiated and current Big East bowls like the Russell Athletic, Belk, BBVA Compass, and Beef O'Brady Bowls will all be free to pursue deals with the expanded ACC and SEC. It would behoove the Big East to pick up a southern school with a large fan base known for traveling well.
Brigham Young---BYU is the best program available. They have a broad nationwide following among Mormons. They are also a western school, which fits with the Big East's plan to secure its new western flank. BYU does has its setbacks. They are quite demanding in what they want from the Big East regarding televsion revenue and media rights for byuTV. Joining the Big East would mean giving up a lucrative tv deal with ESPN and giving up their new found scheduling independence. BYU also has its eyes on the Big 12.
Air Force---This service academy has a nationwide following and a ton of appeal to media partners. They also fit into the Big East's master western plan. They would be a natural cross-division rival for Navy as well. The problem that the Big East has ran into with AFA is that they are steadfastly loyal to the Mountain West Conference. This is surprising because of their old voting block, "The Gang of Five", Colorado St and Wyoming are the only other members that remain in the league. It would be nice if AFA would simply make arrangements to play these two schools annually out-of-conference (along with their other rival Army) and join up with the Big East.
Army---Army is in this discussion only because they have national appeal and could be used as leverage to get Air Force into the conference. Army struggled when it spent a few seasons in the old C-USA and this conference is better than the first generation of C-USA. Army doesn't want that kind of embarrassment again. Army would really only make sense in the Big East desired to go to 16 members and they were part of a package deal with AFA.
Fresno St---The Bulldogs make it onto this list as an alternative to BYU and AFA should neither of those schools avail themselves to the Big East. They are a solid western mid major, thus fitting into Aresco's plan to secure Boise and San Diego St's membership. Fresno St would jump at the opportunity if it presented itself.
East Carolina--I still hold out hope for the Pirates. They don't fit into the western scheme at all but what I like about them is that they pack their 50,000+ seat stadium each week and they travel well to bowl games. It would be prudent to add them in order to secure bowl tie ins with southern bowl games. In 2014 the bowl deals all get renegotiated and current Big East bowls like the Russell Athletic, Belk, BBVA Compass, and Beef O'Brady Bowls will all be free to pursue deals with the expanded ACC and SEC. It would behoove the Big East to pick up a southern school with a large fan base known for traveling well.
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