The Missouri Valley Conference is currently a hybrid league of 5 football schools (all public) and 5 non-football schools (4 of whom are private). The league is also affiliated with but does not directly administer the Misssouri Valley Football Conference--which consists of the 5 FCS scholarship-granting MVC schools as well as Summit League members North Dakota St, South Dakota, St. South Dakota, and Western Illinois as well as the Horizon League's Youngstown St. In basketball the league's two crown jewels are Creighton and Wichita St but the former is currently being thrown around as a potential future member of the new conference being started by the Big East's Catholic 7. Should Creighton leave the balance of power in the MVC would be tipped in favor of the football schools.
I personally would like to see the Missouri Valley football schools mix things up. I think the 5 football schools--Indiana St, Illinois St, Southern Illinois, Missouri St, and Northern Iowa, as well as basketball power Wichita St should consider voting as a block 6-3 to disband the league and walk away without exit fees and then form a new conference with the 4 Dakota schools, Western Illinois, and Nebraska-Omaha. 5 of those 6 are Summit League members.
This would give the new conference 12 all-sports members, 10 football schools, and a relatively simple travel arrangement as a product of going to divisional play for basketball and Olympic sports:
North
North Dakota
North Dakota St
South Dakota
South Dakota St
Nebraska-Omaha (no football)
Northern Iowa
South
Wichita St (no football)
Missouri St
Western Illinois
Illinois St
Southern Illinois
Indiana St
The result would be shedding the weaker private schools while bringing in some solid state schools into the fold and creating a league that runs its football conference in-house. Youngstown St could be retained as a football affiliate if the league wanted to keep the Penguins around.
The Fall Out
As a product of this move 3 private schools who were part of the MVC would be set adrift--Drake, Bradley, and Evansville. The Summit League's eastern flank--Oakland, IUPUI, and IPFW as well as Denver would also be left in a league that no longer met the NCAA's minimum membership requirements. Rather than these two groups merging, I see the 9-member Horizon League whose membership is mostly public schools in the Great Lakes region likely picking out their 3 favorites from that pool and going to a 12 member league. The remaining schools' best bet would be to join Chicago St and UMKC in a Midwestern wing of the Western Athletic Conference.
The Horizon could look like this:
East: Oakland*, Detroit Mercy, Youngstown St, Cleveland St, Wright St, Evansville*
West: Valparaiso, Loyola (Chicago), UIC, Bradley*, Milwaukee, Green Bay
and the WAC like this:
Midwest: IUPUI*, IPFW*, Chicago St, Drake*, UMKC, Texas-PanAmerican
West: Denver*, Utah Valley, New Mexico St, Grand Canyon, Cal St Bakersfield, Seattle
Thursday, February 28, 2013
Wednesday, February 13, 2013
An Even Bigger Big Ten
The Big Ten wants to go to 9 or perhaps even 10 conference games and have announced that the conference is going to refrain from scheduling FCS opponents. I seriously think that the Big Ten may be gearing up for a dramatic expansion. I think the wheels are already starting to turn and we are going to get a 16 member conference and perhaps as many as 20 members.
As I stated in my last blog article, if the SEC chose to, they could make a huge power play and lock down the entire Southeastern United States. The Big Ten needs to be prepared to preempt or at least give a strong rebuttal if they do so. The Big Ten needs to go for the ACC's jugular. Maryland is already in, so I think the next natural progression is to go after UNC and UVA. They are excellent academic schools in states that are growing rapidly.
The ultimate goal of hitting the ACC hard is to drive Notre Dame away from them and force them to finally accept Big Ten membership. the loss of UNC and UVA would certainly spark a mass exodus from the ACC to the SEC or Big 12. In order to accommodate the addition of Notre Dame (or perhaps ensure that the UVA/UNC grab can be facilitated) that Duke University is the logical choice.
With the addition of these 4 schools the Big Ten would be a 18 member league. I think the best set up for them to consider is a zipper model where each member would have 2 crossover rivals from the opposite division. For example--Nebraska and Minnesota would both have Iowa and Wisconsin as crossover rivals. Much like they did with Nebraska's addition, the goal would be to create competitively balanced divisions that could be tweaked down the road to A) adjust for competitive balance and B) allow schools who never get to play each other due to the league's enormous size an opportunity to face each other. I would say that every 4 years would be a good interval for which to mix things up. I think the zipper model also accomplishes something else important--it ensures that games between members on opposite ends of the conference footprint occur. Iowa-Nebraska is a great game but its appeal is somewhat regional. Now Nebraska-Penn St is of interest to fanbases in multiple regions. This also boosts the appeal and value of the Big Ten Network.
My 20 Member Model
If the 18-member zipper model is to complex and contains too many working parts I think the Big Ten could easily go to 20 members and simultaneously create a more harmonious pod set up and lock down the Northeastern US television markets. This would be by adding Boston College and Syracuse in addition to Notre Dame, UNC, Duke, and UVA. The result would be 5 pods of 4--
Pod 1--Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa
Pod 2--Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern
Pod 3--Notre Dame, Ohio St, Michigan, Michigan St
Pod 4--Penn St, Syracuse, Rutgers, Boston College
Pod 5--Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke
Each school would always play their pod mates (3 games), one member from 3 of the other 4 pods (3 games), and all 4 more members of the 5th pod (4 games) for a 10 game conference schedule. The 2 teams that go to Indianapolis would be the 2 teams with the highest ranking.
If the 18-member zipper model is to complex and contains too many working parts I think the Big Ten could easily go to 20 members and simultaneously create a more harmonious pod set up and lock down the Northeastern US television markets. This would be by adding Boston College and Syracuse in addition to Notre Dame, UNC, Duke, and UVA. The result would be 5 pods of 4--
Pod 1--Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa
Pod 2--Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern
Pod 3--Notre Dame, Ohio St, Michigan, Michigan St
Pod 4--Penn St, Syracuse, Rutgers, Boston College
Pod 5--Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke
Each school would always play their pod mates (3 games), one member from 3 of the other 4 pods (3 games), and all 4 more members of the 5th pod (4 games) for a 10 game conference schedule. The 2 teams that go to Indianapolis would be the 2 teams with the highest ranking.
Friday, February 8, 2013
An SEC Super Conference
Normally I don't advocate for making the SEC any stronger than it already is on this blog but today I am going to propose a plan that would insure that the SEC would be the biggest power broker of college sports. I believe the way that the SEC achieves ultimate football superiority and maxes out profitability is actually breaking up the conference.
DON'T stop reading! I didn't say what you think I just did. The SEC is in a solid position not only competitively but geographically. They have some of the nation's most elite and historic programs and the heart of the conference rests right in the middle of the southeastern United States. Flanking the SEC to East and somewhat overlapping it is the ACC and to the West is the Big 12. Both of these conferences have elite programs but from top to bottom they don't compare to the SEC's line up and both conferences are burdened with weaker members that don't add market value or do not have a history of sustained football success. With both of those conferences experiencing defections in recent years there's been talk of those two conferences working in tandem to keep up with the arms race that is college sports--a likely theory is that the Big 12, with a Grant of Rights in place (an agreement that keeps the football revenue from its members in the conference even if one or members leaves the conference), will be cherry picking the Atlantic Coast Conference's best programs.
I think the SEC could make a fortune and tip the balance of power in college sports if they decided to think outside of the box and make a radical expansion move--expand to 24 members and then split into two conferences each with two 6-team divisions.
From the ACC add: Miami, Florida St, Georgia Tech, Clemson, NC State, and Virginia Tech
and From the Big 12 add: Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, and Texas Tech
This is how it would look:
I am going to refer to the Eastern wing of this football confederation the SEC and the Western wing the SWC. I think the reasoning is self-explanatory.
The SEC will be divided as zipper. The 6 new members of the conference who came from the ACC should be familiar with this set up; they will make up the PRIDE DIVISION. The six members of the original SEC EAST will be the TRADITION DIVISION. Within the new SEC each team will have a crossdivisional rival that they will play on an annual basis while they will rotate playing the other members of the opposing division. The divisions and crossover pairs are as follows:
DON'T stop reading! I didn't say what you think I just did. The SEC is in a solid position not only competitively but geographically. They have some of the nation's most elite and historic programs and the heart of the conference rests right in the middle of the southeastern United States. Flanking the SEC to East and somewhat overlapping it is the ACC and to the West is the Big 12. Both of these conferences have elite programs but from top to bottom they don't compare to the SEC's line up and both conferences are burdened with weaker members that don't add market value or do not have a history of sustained football success. With both of those conferences experiencing defections in recent years there's been talk of those two conferences working in tandem to keep up with the arms race that is college sports--a likely theory is that the Big 12, with a Grant of Rights in place (an agreement that keeps the football revenue from its members in the conference even if one or members leaves the conference), will be cherry picking the Atlantic Coast Conference's best programs.
I think the SEC could make a fortune and tip the balance of power in college sports if they decided to think outside of the box and make a radical expansion move--expand to 24 members and then split into two conferences each with two 6-team divisions.
From the ACC add: Miami, Florida St, Georgia Tech, Clemson, NC State, and Virginia Tech
and From the Big 12 add: Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, and Texas Tech
This is how it would look:
I am going to refer to the Eastern wing of this football confederation the SEC and the Western wing the SWC. I think the reasoning is self-explanatory.
The SEC will be divided as zipper. The 6 new members of the conference who came from the ACC should be familiar with this set up; they will make up the PRIDE DIVISION. The six members of the original SEC EAST will be the TRADITION DIVISION. Within the new SEC each team will have a crossdivisional rival that they will play on an annual basis while they will rotate playing the other members of the opposing division. The divisions and crossover pairs are as follows:
PRIDE TRADITION
Virginia Tech Kentucky
NC State Tennessee
Clemson South Carolina
Georgia Tech Georgia
Florida St Florida
Miami Vanderbilt
Meanwhile the SWC will consist of two geographical divisions, an East consisting of the original 6 members of the SEC West, and a West consisting of Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Texas, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech. The SWC will not have permanent crossover rivalries.
WEST EAST
Missouri Auburn
Oklahoma Alabama
Oklahoma St Ole Miss
Texas Mississippi St
Texas A&M LSU
Texas Tech Arkansas
Why do this?
For starters it kills off two rival conferences, the ACC and Big 12, by depriving them of their strongest, and most financially lucrative members. It also concentrates the profit share that teams will earn by lessening the number of schools who can claim to be in an upper echelon conference. It also geographically hems in the Pacific 12 Conference--the Pac-12's expansion options become incredibly bleak with Texas and Oklahoma in the SEC/SWC Confederation. The other thing that it does is it forces the Big Ten to over expand. The Big Ten is currently at 14 members. It's expansion possibilities, aside from Notre Dame, are far less alluring than the programs that the SEC/SWC has picked up. At a minimum, the Big Ten will have to expand to 16 with Notre Dame and a companion school but Commissioner Jim Delany will likely become over ambitious and go to 18 or even 20 by adding programs like Virginia, North Carolina, and possibly Duke, Syracuse, Boston College, Pittsburgh, or Kansas. This expansion into new markets will no doubt dilute the Big Ten football product and unlike the SEC, with its abundance of strong programs and convenient lines by which they can divide geographically and still maintain meaningful historical rivalries, the Big Ten will have an impossible task of trying to create competively balanced, geographically harmonious divisions. There simply aren't 10 programs that you can add to the Big Ten's 14 to do what the SEC/SWC did so that option is likely off the table. There is no way that long time Big Ten members are going to agree to go into the sub-conference with the eastern newcomers and forsake decades of tradition.
There is also the profitability of the television contracts that the SEC and SWC will garner to consider. The 12 member and now the 14 member SEC was incredibly profitable and commanded a large inventory of meaningful games that people wanted to watch. The big match ups between nationally ranked teams is what made the SEC so valuable. Imagine its value when you add in every meaningful, high profile game that the Big 12 and ACC had into the pool? --the value of these new conferences increases exponentially. If the two new conferences collaborate with one another when negotiating deals with ESPN/ABC, CBS, FOX, and NBC the SEC and SWC will be able to name their price for their Tier 1 and Tier 2 rights. I would imagine they would work with two or perhaps even three networks, offering each of them a combined bundle of Tier 1 and 2 games featuring a mix of games from both conferences in order to maximize profits by forcing Tier 2 games on the networks for inflated prices in order to secure the lucrative Tier 1 games. The SEC and SWC would also be free to create a conference owned network or networks to showcase their Tier 3 rights and with the shear size of the league their should be plenty of inventory to air. With the popularity of college football in the southern United States its no doubt that any network or networks created by these two conferences would be a must have in every Southern household and that they would be able to charge an even higher subscriber fee than the the Big Ten Network.
The SEC and SWC should also be able to secure a large number of bids to the playoffs and the other high profile bowl games that are going to be associated with the new system. And, as I said before, by leaving the ACC and Big 12 for dead the playoff and bowl money will be divided among fewer schools. The remnants of the ACC and Big 12, whether they merge or rebuild by raiding the Big East or Mountain West will be relegated to the ranks of those 5 conferences vying to land their champion into the guaranteed slot for an access bowl. The big checks will be split four ways--the SEC, the SWC, the Pac 12, and the Big Ten and the Big Ten schools will be dividing whatever checks they get 14, 16, or 18 ways while the checks the Pac 12, SEC, and SWC cash will only be split 12 ways.
Possible Tweaks
This is simply my best approximation of how to maximize value for the SWC and SEC with the influx of new members. There are a number of minor adjustments you could make:
If the combined SEC/SWC would rather have Louisville or West Virginia than Texas Tech (with the Longhorn and Aggies in the Red Raiders might not be necessary) Vanderbilt could easily move from the SEC TRADITION Division to the SWC EAST Division.
Kansas or Kansas St might make more sense to add to the SWC than Texas Tech too. For one, it would give Missouri a more natural rival.
Missouri might decide they'd rather join the Big Ten if the Big Ten offered them a spot. If they did I'd either swap them out for Kansas St (the more successful of the two Kansas schools), or move Vanderbilt to the SWC like I said above, and add Louisville or WVU to the SEC.
The SEC might rather have UNC over NC State but I think NC State is the right call for a couple of reasons. UNC is not likely to move without Duke and by leaving UNC and Duke both available for the Big Ten it only offers Jim Delany further temptation to over-expand and add schools who are not traditional football powers. I also think NC St fits better with the culture of the SEC whereas UNC is more snooty and academic.
Tuesday, February 5, 2013
The Magnolia Conference
There has been recent conjecture that someday that mega-conferences of 16 to 18 members will become the new norm with the SEC, Big Ten, Pac 12, and probably the best elements of the Big 12 and ACC emerging as the only major conferences. This would likely mean that a number of smaller, private, academically minded universities could be left homeless. With this said I think NCAA conference realignment bloggers and enthusiasts should consider the creation of a Magnolia League.
The Magnolia League is not a new idea, in fact its a very old one. Several decades ago a group of schools put forth the idea that the South's prestigious private schools should band together to create an athletic conference with high academic standards paralleling the well known northeastern academic juggernaut the Ivy League.
Who would be part of the Magnolia League?
It really depends on who is left standing after all the dominoes fall. You could potentially have a membership that looks something like this:
Wake Forest (from ACC)
Duke (from ACC)
Tulane (from Big East)
Southern Methodist (from Big East)
Rice (from C-USA)
Tulsa (from C-USA)
Baylor (from Big 12)
Texas Christian (from Big 12)
Should Vanderbilt ever decide to leave the SEC (which is highly doubtful) they too would be a prime candidate for membership.
Another private school, albeit a non-southern school that could be left out of the realignment shuffle that might have interest in such a league would be Boston College.
Any state school left out of the power conferences who was a member of the Association of American Universities, a consortium of the nation's top research universities, would also be welcome to join. This might include someone like Georgia Tech.
I think the Magnolia League could be a tremendous success. It would stand as a bold defiance to the mindset that college conference membership should be driven by greed, television markets, and Darwinian/Machiavellian sabotage of rival conferences. It would be a conference built upon shared values and beliefs about the role of college athletics.
The Magnolia League is not a new idea, in fact its a very old one. Several decades ago a group of schools put forth the idea that the South's prestigious private schools should band together to create an athletic conference with high academic standards paralleling the well known northeastern academic juggernaut the Ivy League.
Who would be part of the Magnolia League?
It really depends on who is left standing after all the dominoes fall. You could potentially have a membership that looks something like this:
Wake Forest (from ACC)
Duke (from ACC)
Tulane (from Big East)
Southern Methodist (from Big East)
Rice (from C-USA)
Tulsa (from C-USA)
Baylor (from Big 12)
Texas Christian (from Big 12)
Should Vanderbilt ever decide to leave the SEC (which is highly doubtful) they too would be a prime candidate for membership.
Another private school, albeit a non-southern school that could be left out of the realignment shuffle that might have interest in such a league would be Boston College.
Any state school left out of the power conferences who was a member of the Association of American Universities, a consortium of the nation's top research universities, would also be welcome to join. This might include someone like Georgia Tech.
I think the Magnolia League could be a tremendous success. It would stand as a bold defiance to the mindset that college conference membership should be driven by greed, television markets, and Darwinian/Machiavellian sabotage of rival conferences. It would be a conference built upon shared values and beliefs about the role of college athletics.
Tuesday, January 29, 2013
Figuring Out the Big East's Future
I don't know this for a fact but I am willing to be that their have been more blog articles written in regards to the future of the Big East Conference than any other athletic conference in America. For those who don't know the Catholic 7, Rutgers, and Louisville are all leaving the Big East and San Diego St and Boise St have decided not to come. Pending the determination of the exit dates of those schools, in 2014 the Big East will consist of:
UConn
Temple
South Florida
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Memphis
Tulane
Southern Methodist
Houston
East Carolina (fb only but presumably will be names a full member)
Navy is supposed to join in 2015 for football only but they may decide to cancel those plans. The Big East needs to have a long conversation with officials from the Naval Academy to determine for certain whether or not the midshipmen still consider the Big East a suitable home and/or if the departure of any certain school (or schools) would change Navy's mind.
I also think East Carolina is owed full membership due to their willingness to sign on to this league in their hour of need.
Once things are straightened out with Navy and ECU the Big East needs to determine what course of action they are going to take. Adding Tulsa seems like a no brainer--they are a competitive team that has a history with all of the western members of the Big East particularly fellow private schools Tulane and SMU.
Tulsa's addition would put the Big East at 11 members for all sports and 12 for football provided Navy is still honoring their agreement. I think this is a tenable set up. Scheduling for Olympic sports might be a little hectic but I think this is the best possible scenario for the Big East (unless of course Army decided they would like to be a football affiliate and then the Big East would be in the position where they would need a 12th all-sports/14th football member.
UMass keeps getting thrown into the Big East expansion conversation but the Minutemen simply are not ready for Big East play. They were pitiful in their first year of FBS in the MAC and their average attendance was around 10,000 a game. This simply will not be tolerable in the Big East. The problem is that Temple is pulling for them and UConn either is agreeing with Temple or at least not vocally opposing Temple's suggestion. Their are two schools of thought regarding UMass--one says that the best way to get UMass up to par is to go ahead and add them; the other is to wait and let them prove themselves in the MAC. The potential problems associated with adding them now are quite obvious. They could be a flop and the BE would be permanently stuck with them unless their were terms written into their BE contract that would allow the BE to expel them if certain performance and attendance benchmarks were not met. the other potential problem with them is that if another if the ACC loses another member then UConn is the next school to join that conference. Depending on how hard the ACC is hit in a future raid the BE's other northeastern member Temple might even work their way into that conversation. This would saddle the rest of the Big East with a geographic outlier, UMass.
UConn
Temple
South Florida
Central Florida
Cincinnati
Memphis
Tulane
Southern Methodist
Houston
East Carolina (fb only but presumably will be names a full member)
Navy is supposed to join in 2015 for football only but they may decide to cancel those plans. The Big East needs to have a long conversation with officials from the Naval Academy to determine for certain whether or not the midshipmen still consider the Big East a suitable home and/or if the departure of any certain school (or schools) would change Navy's mind.
I also think East Carolina is owed full membership due to their willingness to sign on to this league in their hour of need.
Once things are straightened out with Navy and ECU the Big East needs to determine what course of action they are going to take. Adding Tulsa seems like a no brainer--they are a competitive team that has a history with all of the western members of the Big East particularly fellow private schools Tulane and SMU.
Tulsa's addition would put the Big East at 11 members for all sports and 12 for football provided Navy is still honoring their agreement. I think this is a tenable set up. Scheduling for Olympic sports might be a little hectic but I think this is the best possible scenario for the Big East (unless of course Army decided they would like to be a football affiliate and then the Big East would be in the position where they would need a 12th all-sports/14th football member.
UMass keeps getting thrown into the Big East expansion conversation but the Minutemen simply are not ready for Big East play. They were pitiful in their first year of FBS in the MAC and their average attendance was around 10,000 a game. This simply will not be tolerable in the Big East. The problem is that Temple is pulling for them and UConn either is agreeing with Temple or at least not vocally opposing Temple's suggestion. Their are two schools of thought regarding UMass--one says that the best way to get UMass up to par is to go ahead and add them; the other is to wait and let them prove themselves in the MAC. The potential problems associated with adding them now are quite obvious. They could be a flop and the BE would be permanently stuck with them unless their were terms written into their BE contract that would allow the BE to expel them if certain performance and attendance benchmarks were not met. the other potential problem with them is that if another if the ACC loses another member then UConn is the next school to join that conference. Depending on how hard the ACC is hit in a future raid the BE's other northeastern member Temple might even work their way into that conversation. This would saddle the rest of the Big East with a geographic outlier, UMass.
Rice also
gets talked about in Big East conversations because they are old friends of
SMU, Tulane, and Tulsa. But Rice also has a tiny alumni base and are
completely overshadowed in their own media market, a market that the Big East
already has with Houston being a member.
Southern
Mississippi, a stand up member of C-USA also gets talked about in Big East
talks but they don't bring any sort of media market and media markets are the
driving force of expansion nowadays.
I am
putting UTSA in the Big East expansion conversation because I think they are
program on the trajectory to have the same meteoric rise as USF and UCF.
Their attendance is amazing even though they have only played lackluster
opponents thus far. They are also in a top 40 media market that is
without the NFL. Maybe they don't get added right now but this is a
program to watch closely. Maybe the Big East adds them in a couple years
alongside UMass if UMass improves. The thing with the UTSA Roadrunners is
that the MWC is also monitoring the program closely. The MWC would love to get
into Texas and UTSA would be a great add for them as well. If the Big East
wants them they will have to move before the MWC does.
I am also
going to slide an FCS program on this list but only because I think they have
the potential to make the same kind of FCS to FBS jump that UConn did.
The school I am talking about is Delaware. They are a perrenial Top
5 school in FCS attendance so they can draw enough fans to support an FBS
program (which UMass has yet to prove). They are also a highly
competitive conference, the CAA, and they are an FCS playoff regular.
In my
mind, the 2015 Big East should look like this:
East:
UConn, Temple, Navy*, East Carolina, Central Florida, South Florida
West:
Cincinnati, Memphis, Tulane, Tulsa, Southern Methodist, Houston
by 2017
UMass or Delaware could be added to the East and UTSA to the West.
Thursday, January 24, 2013
Is 16 C-USA's target?
C-USA has been one conference that has not shied away from radical expansion recently. In total they have lost six of the twelve members from their 2005 line up. It is expected that they will soon lose a seventh as Tulsa has set it's sights on the Big East and a reunion with many of its old conference mates. C-USA has not only restocked but raised their status quo from a 12 member league to a 14 member league. They've taken a fairly balanced approach to expansion--adding for both television markets and taking into consideration on field performance---North Texas, UTSA, FAU, FIU, Charlotte, Old Dominion, and to some extent Middle Tennessee augment the league's media presence in large southern cities while LA Tech and Middle Tennessee bring very competitive programs into the fold.
Tulsa's departure is probably going to necessitate adding at least one more member but they could go for three and bring league membership to 16 and in doing so probably cripple their less affluent rival the Sunbelt. Personally I am a fan of the Sunbelt and I would hate to see C-USA kill them just for the sake of eliminating rivals but college sports alignment is a cut throat world where only the most Darwinian and Machiavellian survive.
The options for C-USA are fairly obvious--there are the 8 Sunbelt football schools and New Mexico St available for discussion:
Western Kentucky--WKU is first on this list because they are the one of the most likely to get a call up. They have a good relationship and healthy rivalry with nearby Middle Tennessee and I think the Blue Raiders will campaign for, rather than try to block the Hill Toppers' inclusion.
UL Lafayette--The Ragin' Cajuns are among the top tier of the SBC. They have great attendance and they make bowl games most years. What they lack is a strong media market. There is also the fact that LA Tech styles itself the third best (if not 2nd best) school in Louisiana and may want to fend off competitors. For years the Bulldogs played in the far flung WAC rather than join the SBC because they felt they were superior to their instate rivals.
UL Monroe--Despite recent strong seasons the Warhawks prospects at getting a C-USA are even worse than UL Lafayette as they are the weaker of the two ULs and in LA Tech's backyard. They also have no television matket to speak of.
Arkansas St--the Redwolves don't have much of a market but their attendance and on field performance has been solid. On the bright side, C-USA has no schools within the state that would try to block them.
Troy--Good football, decent attendance, lousy location. UAB already gives them a presence in the state and I doubt the Blazers would want them in.
South Alabama--On the contrary, South Alabama is in Mobile which is an alright market. Including them probably means landing the GoDaddy.com Bowl and UAB is probably less likely to oppose their inclusion because unlike Troy, the Blazers are better than the Jaguars.
Georgia St--Great television market, lousy team, lousy attendance. People in Atlanta have yet to get excited about the Georgia St Panthers. Then again, expansion is often market driven so they could sneak in. They are just a start up and will hopefully get better...then again people said that about UAB two decades ago.
Texas St--The Bobcats could quickly become UTSA's little brother. Letting them in would give them in would solidify the san Antonio market and maybe get a sliver of Austin but the Bobcats are probably a superfluous add unless UTSA (and UTEP) are actively campaigning for them which I don't expect to happen.
New Mexico St--The lone non-SBC candidate. The only reason I see them getting in is if UTEP is pushing for them but UTEP is eying MWC membership so I am not sure that NMSU to C-USA is a realistic possibility. I'm under the impression that both UTEP and the MWC's New Mexico want to keep the Aggies down and I don't see either school having a sudden change of heart. It would also be silly for C-USA to replace a departed UTEP with NMSU because the loss of UTEP would allow the league to significantly shrink the conference footprint and eliminate some long and costly flights.
WKU is probably the first school to be taken by C-USA. If the idea is to indeed go to 16 then I think the next two call ups are Arkansas St and Georgia St. Should UTEP also leave necessitating 4 additions to get to 16 then either South Alabama or UL Lafayette would be the next in line.
Tulsa's departure is probably going to necessitate adding at least one more member but they could go for three and bring league membership to 16 and in doing so probably cripple their less affluent rival the Sunbelt. Personally I am a fan of the Sunbelt and I would hate to see C-USA kill them just for the sake of eliminating rivals but college sports alignment is a cut throat world where only the most Darwinian and Machiavellian survive.
The options for C-USA are fairly obvious--there are the 8 Sunbelt football schools and New Mexico St available for discussion:
Western Kentucky--WKU is first on this list because they are the one of the most likely to get a call up. They have a good relationship and healthy rivalry with nearby Middle Tennessee and I think the Blue Raiders will campaign for, rather than try to block the Hill Toppers' inclusion.
UL Lafayette--The Ragin' Cajuns are among the top tier of the SBC. They have great attendance and they make bowl games most years. What they lack is a strong media market. There is also the fact that LA Tech styles itself the third best (if not 2nd best) school in Louisiana and may want to fend off competitors. For years the Bulldogs played in the far flung WAC rather than join the SBC because they felt they were superior to their instate rivals.
UL Monroe--Despite recent strong seasons the Warhawks prospects at getting a C-USA are even worse than UL Lafayette as they are the weaker of the two ULs and in LA Tech's backyard. They also have no television matket to speak of.
Arkansas St--the Redwolves don't have much of a market but their attendance and on field performance has been solid. On the bright side, C-USA has no schools within the state that would try to block them.
Troy--Good football, decent attendance, lousy location. UAB already gives them a presence in the state and I doubt the Blazers would want them in.
South Alabama--On the contrary, South Alabama is in Mobile which is an alright market. Including them probably means landing the GoDaddy.com Bowl and UAB is probably less likely to oppose their inclusion because unlike Troy, the Blazers are better than the Jaguars.
Georgia St--Great television market, lousy team, lousy attendance. People in Atlanta have yet to get excited about the Georgia St Panthers. Then again, expansion is often market driven so they could sneak in. They are just a start up and will hopefully get better...then again people said that about UAB two decades ago.
Texas St--The Bobcats could quickly become UTSA's little brother. Letting them in would give them in would solidify the san Antonio market and maybe get a sliver of Austin but the Bobcats are probably a superfluous add unless UTSA (and UTEP) are actively campaigning for them which I don't expect to happen.
New Mexico St--The lone non-SBC candidate. The only reason I see them getting in is if UTEP is pushing for them but UTEP is eying MWC membership so I am not sure that NMSU to C-USA is a realistic possibility. I'm under the impression that both UTEP and the MWC's New Mexico want to keep the Aggies down and I don't see either school having a sudden change of heart. It would also be silly for C-USA to replace a departed UTEP with NMSU because the loss of UTEP would allow the league to significantly shrink the conference footprint and eliminate some long and costly flights.
WKU is probably the first school to be taken by C-USA. If the idea is to indeed go to 16 then I think the next two call ups are Arkansas St and Georgia St. Should UTEP also leave necessitating 4 additions to get to 16 then either South Alabama or UL Lafayette would be the next in line.
What is the Sunbelt to do?
The 2012 realignment cycle has hit the Sunbelt Conference hard. About a year ago the Sunbelt looked poised and well positioned going into the future with 10 football members and 12 members overall with the additions of football playing members Texas St and Georgia St and non-football school Texas-Arlington. Conference USA has gone to the Sunbelt to replenish its depleted ranks, taking Florida Atlantic, Florida International, North Texas, and Middle Tennessee from the league (as well as WAC refugees LA Tech and UTSA, FCS upgrade Old Dominion and Charlotte's football program which will play its first down this fall).
These leaves the SBC in a precarious position. It has just 8 football playing members---
Western Kentucky
Georgia St
Troy
South Alabama
UL Lafayette
UL Monroe
Arkansas St
Texas St
and non-football members---
Arkansas-Little Rock
Texas-Arlington
Tulsa's imminent departure from C-USA to the Big East will likely deprive the SBC of yet another member and should other shifts occur (another C-USA school to the BE or UTEP to the MWC) the situation could become even worse.
The SBC desperately needs to get commitments from FCS programs willing to upgrade to the FBS level if they are going to continue as a conference. Fortunately for the SBC, the Southeastern US has plenty of potential candidates that could make the jump. They should also consider bringing in New Mexico St in as a full member and maybe even Idaho as a football affiliate.
Georgia Southern is a natural addition--they would be the easternmost member of the SBC but they have a natural rivalry with Georgia St as they have long fought over which university owns the initials "GSU". Georgia Southern is an FCS powerhouse too. Georgia Southern is also feeling somewhat threatened by their upstart rivals in Atlanta which could prove as a motivator for the transition.
Appalachian St would be a dream addition but courting them seems to be a challenge. They seem comfortable where they are in FCS in the elite SoCon but if their rival Georgia Southern announces they are moving attitudes in Boone, NC could change.
Jacksonville St is an Alabama school with some history with Troy. They are one of the Ohio Valley Conference's top programs and they have solid attendance. They aren't a sexy pick put they are an available option.
James Madison is a school in Northern Virginia that is equipped to make the move provided they are willing to commit to traveling the SBC's Deep South conference footprint. Their attendance, facilities, and on field performance are all top notch. There is also the fact that their current home in FCS, the Colonial Athletic Association is very factionalized and the conference's commitment to playing FCS football at a high level is waning as only 4 full members currently sponsor the sport.
Liberty University in Lynchburg, Virginia would be a natural companion for the James Madison Dukes. The university's chancellor has already expressed his desire to take the Flames up to college football's highest level of competition and styles his school as the Evangelicals' Notre Dame. They too would have to commit to some serious increases in travel expenditures by moving to the SBC but their FCS home, the Big South, is currently in shambles and is down to 6 football members.
Encouraging Texas-Arlington and Arkansas-Little Rock to revive their dormant football programs would also help the SBC's woes. Texas-Arlington has a suitable on-campus stadium already and I've suspected that an expressed interest in reviving the program helped get them included the last time the SBC expanded. UALR could play in War Memorial Stadium, where the Arkansas Razorbacks play when they make their annual visit to the state's capital city. I suspect that that the Razorbacks will be resistant to any attempts by their little brother to play college football however.
There are also options within the Lone Star State that the SBC could explore. Schools like Stephen F. Austin, Sam Houston St, and Lamar come to mind. These schools would struggle to meet FBS attendance requirements (but them again Georgia St has yet to prove they can get their average over the 15,000 mark and over half of the MAC meets that requirement. Sam Houston St has appeared in back-to-back FCS title games so they could definitely come in and make a respectable showing in the SBC.
An honorable mention should go out to UT Chattanooga. UT Chattanooga of the SoCon could attempt to make the jump with Georgia Southern and Appalachian St. The Mocs aren't at the same level as some of the other candidates but they could turn to them if others pass on the SBC.
Missouri St could also work their way in to the conversation if they are willing to part ways with the Missouri Valley Conference. They are in Southwest Missouri and not a terribly long trek from Arkansas St. Their name change to Missouri St a few years ago seems to indicate to me that they are looking to go to a higher level. It also fits with the "Fill in the blank" St theme the conference has going (i.e. Arkansas St, Texas St, Georgia St).
That's a total of ten programs that they could pursue to make the jump up to FBS. And that total does not include New Mexico St or Idaho, nor the revival of football at UALR or UT-A. I also heard a rumor that the University of North Florida in Jacksonville was considering adding football; presuming they want to follow the same path as FAU and FIU the SBC would be the perfect place to start. Another idea floating out there is that SBC should recruit some of the bigger HBCU's to join their league--Florida A&M, Alabama St, Tennessee St, and Jackson St. Bringing in the HBCU's would certainly elevate the quality of SBC halftime performances.
These leaves the SBC in a precarious position. It has just 8 football playing members---
Western Kentucky
Georgia St
Troy
South Alabama
UL Lafayette
UL Monroe
Arkansas St
Texas St
and non-football members---
Arkansas-Little Rock
Texas-Arlington
Tulsa's imminent departure from C-USA to the Big East will likely deprive the SBC of yet another member and should other shifts occur (another C-USA school to the BE or UTEP to the MWC) the situation could become even worse.
The SBC desperately needs to get commitments from FCS programs willing to upgrade to the FBS level if they are going to continue as a conference. Fortunately for the SBC, the Southeastern US has plenty of potential candidates that could make the jump. They should also consider bringing in New Mexico St in as a full member and maybe even Idaho as a football affiliate.
Georgia Southern is a natural addition--they would be the easternmost member of the SBC but they have a natural rivalry with Georgia St as they have long fought over which university owns the initials "GSU". Georgia Southern is an FCS powerhouse too. Georgia Southern is also feeling somewhat threatened by their upstart rivals in Atlanta which could prove as a motivator for the transition.
Appalachian St would be a dream addition but courting them seems to be a challenge. They seem comfortable where they are in FCS in the elite SoCon but if their rival Georgia Southern announces they are moving attitudes in Boone, NC could change.
Jacksonville St is an Alabama school with some history with Troy. They are one of the Ohio Valley Conference's top programs and they have solid attendance. They aren't a sexy pick put they are an available option.
James Madison is a school in Northern Virginia that is equipped to make the move provided they are willing to commit to traveling the SBC's Deep South conference footprint. Their attendance, facilities, and on field performance are all top notch. There is also the fact that their current home in FCS, the Colonial Athletic Association is very factionalized and the conference's commitment to playing FCS football at a high level is waning as only 4 full members currently sponsor the sport.
Liberty University in Lynchburg, Virginia would be a natural companion for the James Madison Dukes. The university's chancellor has already expressed his desire to take the Flames up to college football's highest level of competition and styles his school as the Evangelicals' Notre Dame. They too would have to commit to some serious increases in travel expenditures by moving to the SBC but their FCS home, the Big South, is currently in shambles and is down to 6 football members.
Encouraging Texas-Arlington and Arkansas-Little Rock to revive their dormant football programs would also help the SBC's woes. Texas-Arlington has a suitable on-campus stadium already and I've suspected that an expressed interest in reviving the program helped get them included the last time the SBC expanded. UALR could play in War Memorial Stadium, where the Arkansas Razorbacks play when they make their annual visit to the state's capital city. I suspect that that the Razorbacks will be resistant to any attempts by their little brother to play college football however.
There are also options within the Lone Star State that the SBC could explore. Schools like Stephen F. Austin, Sam Houston St, and Lamar come to mind. These schools would struggle to meet FBS attendance requirements (but them again Georgia St has yet to prove they can get their average over the 15,000 mark and over half of the MAC meets that requirement. Sam Houston St has appeared in back-to-back FCS title games so they could definitely come in and make a respectable showing in the SBC.
An honorable mention should go out to UT Chattanooga. UT Chattanooga of the SoCon could attempt to make the jump with Georgia Southern and Appalachian St. The Mocs aren't at the same level as some of the other candidates but they could turn to them if others pass on the SBC.
Missouri St could also work their way in to the conversation if they are willing to part ways with the Missouri Valley Conference. They are in Southwest Missouri and not a terribly long trek from Arkansas St. Their name change to Missouri St a few years ago seems to indicate to me that they are looking to go to a higher level. It also fits with the "Fill in the blank" St theme the conference has going (i.e. Arkansas St, Texas St, Georgia St).
That's a total of ten programs that they could pursue to make the jump up to FBS. And that total does not include New Mexico St or Idaho, nor the revival of football at UALR or UT-A. I also heard a rumor that the University of North Florida in Jacksonville was considering adding football; presuming they want to follow the same path as FAU and FIU the SBC would be the perfect place to start. Another idea floating out there is that SBC should recruit some of the bigger HBCU's to join their league--Florida A&M, Alabama St, Tennessee St, and Jackson St. Bringing in the HBCU's would certainly elevate the quality of SBC halftime performances.
The moral of this blog post is that the Sunbelt Conference can
survive but to do so they need to start bringing in new blood and do so quickly
before C-USA returns to pick them clean once more.
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