...And C-USA strikes first blood

Today's announcement about C-USA is a clear sign, in my mind, that the announcement that AQ status has gone away has soured the relationship between MWC and C-USA and C-USA is now looking after their own interests.  If things were all peachy with the two leagues I would have expected for the announcement of both leagues' expansion moves would come at the same time.  I also think that going after UTSA first is a sign that C-USA has abandoned their collaboration with MWC--landing UTSA (and presumably North Texas shortly)  shores up C-USA's western flank.  The MWC will no longer be able to get a foothold in eastern or central Texas and since C-USA has all of the east Texas markets in their camp UTEP isn't going to be flirting with a westward move any time soon.  The MWC's current best expansion candidates in or near their footprint are Utah St and San Jose St---after that the tv markets and teams on the field get pretty shabby.  Meanwhile, C-USA has ample expansion targets and can quickly get to 12 and their own title game without the MWC involved.  FIU and North Texas are virtually locks for spots #10 and #11 and LA Tech or Charlotte will get #12.

As I mentioned in a previous post, there is a silver lining in all of this realignment and that is if between the MWC, C-USA, and the SBC, if enough members are pulled from the WAC it could collapse that league and leave Boise homeless and thus the Broncos, and by extension the Aztecs, will have to return to the MWC and abandon their Big East ambitions.

• The loss of UTSA makes 10 WAC members (6 for football)
• MWC taking Utah St and San Jose St makes 8 WAC members (4 for football)
• If the MWC is astute and sees the benefits of taking Denver to balance out Hawaii that makes 7 
• If LA Tech is indeed part of C-USA's expansion to 12 that leaves 6 WAC members (3 for football)
• Now the SBC gets involved:  Texas St and New Mexico St are both real possibilities (La Tech too if they are still around).  UT-A might be in the mix too if they want a non-fb member but I think they pass and take Charlotte as a fb-only member provided C-USA didn't tale them in lieu of LA Tech.  I'll lean on the side of caution and say they decide to take 2 WAC schools leaving just 4 WAC members
• The WAC needs to maintain 7 members and theoretically the conference could stay alive by adding Utah Valley, Cal St Bakersfield, and UT-Pan Am but I don't think that will work.   At this point any football member left has to be really nervous and thinking FCS doesn't look so bad. Idaho has to be considering the Big Sky.  If NMSU and Texas St the Southland is there to catch them.  Also I think at this point UT-A would also be looking to go back to the Southland too--there is even a spot left open for them.
• At least one school bails and Boise no longer has a conference.  The MWC gets them back and the ridiculousness that is conference realignment finally subsides.