Saturday, March 31, 2012

A Catholic Holy League where Basketball is God

I probably should have first written a post on why the Big East, which consists of 8 Catholic schools who do not play FBS football in the conference and 8, mostly public, schools who do and establish how the Catholic schools have long been a leech on the conference and how their shortsightedness and desire for self preservation inevitably doomed the league and despite multiple chances to right the ship and save the conference they always chose to ignore that football was king and that a strong football conference was beneficial for all parties involved.  No; that post would raise my blood pressure through the roof and result in me needing to see a cardiologist.  As I can't afford a trip to a cardiologist I will focus this post on why its beneficial for the 8 Catholic Big East schools to strike out on their own and build a new conference and explore  who they should add it their new Vatican sanctioned basketball league.

The Big East, as it will exist in 2013 includes 18 full members--football playing members UConn, Rutgers, Temple, Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, South Florida, Central Florida, Houston, and Southern Methodist (as well as football associates Boise St and San Diego St) and non-football members Notre Dame, Villanova, Georgetown, Seton Hall, St John's, Providence, Marquette, and DePaul.  In addition Navy is slated to bring their football program to this behemoth in 2015.  This amalgam of programs was the product of trying to salvage a football league that was so irreparably damaged by the ACC and Big 12 raid that it is an insult to other conferences who are a shadow of their former selves to group this one with them.  The Catholic basketball schools even meddled with the latest expansion by insisting on their being a basketball flavor to it leading to Memphis and their strong hoops program being admitted despite a lousy football team, lousy football attendance, and a lousy football stadium over much more qualified programs like East Carolina.  Of the football schools, only UConn was there at the league's founding in 1979 and their football team didn't join into 2004.  It's also the only football school the Catholic schools have any real attachment to.  The rest are either outside of the Northeast, had lousy basketball (Rutgers), or despite having strong basketball have been cock blocked by an existing Big East member (Temple).  An 18 team conference results in watered down rivalries and tradition and an exuberant number of mouths to feed from the television contract and the NCAA tournament.  The Catholic schools would be far better served by intensifying their rivalries amongst one another and break away to form a new league where basketball was the priority and they were no longer saddled with the interests of football schools.

Who to add
In addition to the 8 schools that would be departing the Big East I think that there are six schools that stick out as expansion possibilities.  I will list each of their pros and cons.

Xavier
Pros--strong Catholic university, located in the Cincinnati market, great fan following in a city with a large Catholic population, sustained success in the Atlantic 10 and the NCAA tournament, pairs well as a travel partner for Notre Dame
Cons--has to share that tv market and fan pool with the Cincinnati Bearcats

St. Louis
Pros--strong Catholic university, located in the St Louis tv market, large Catholic population in St Louis, fits well in a Western Division
Cons--spotty success in Atlantic 10 and the NCAA tourney, lacks a natural travel partner

Dayton
Pros--strong Catholic university, successful A-10 program, fits well in a western division
Cons--doesn't bring a new tv market if Xavier is also in the new league, not as strong a brand name as other candidates

UMass
Pros--successful A-10 program, travel partner for Providence, gives a stronger hold on New England markets, strong brand name, lots of Catholics in Massachusetts
Cons--not Catholic, wants to be in the Big East

Richmond
Pros--successful A-10 program, pairs well with Georgetown for travel, Tidewater tv market,
Cons--not Catholic (but at least they are private), there are stronger brand names out there, not a huge alumni base

Duquesne
Pros--could fit in either the West or East division-wise, lots of Catholics in Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh tv market
Cons--not a strong name, doesn't have sustained success, sits in the shadow of Pitt

A 10 Team Model
A 10 team league has a lot of benefits.  It concentrates the tv and NCAA money among the fewest number of schools.  Travel costs are greatly reduced and traveling partners can be utilized.  It also means a double round robin regular season so we get all of the big match ups twice each year.  The drawbacks with 10 is that you may have to pass up on a stronger program that has more potential as a tournament team (and money maker that way) for a school that has a better television market.

For a 10 team league I think Xavier is a given; I really had to stretch things to find a con for the Musketeers. For #10 it becomes a real toss up between whether to go with a split between 5 Midwestern schools and 5 Northeastern schools or to go with convenient traveling pairs.  St Louis is the best candidate market-wise in the former scenario while I think pairing UMass with Providence is the most logical in the later.

A 12 Team Model
While 12 means more mouths to feed it also means more members that have a potential to gain a tournament  berth.  Through geographic divisions (Midwest and Northeast) it also means that the big games are still preserved as Home&Aways (ND-Xavier, ND-Marquette, G'town-'Nova, etc) and the tv partner and fans all get each high profile cross regional game each year too.

Once again I consider Xavier a no brainer giving the Midwest 4 and the Northeast 5 members.  In the west I'm inclined to give St Louis a spot on the grounds that they are in the #21 television market.  That leaves Dayton and Duquesne for the last spot.  Dayton has a better product on the court but they are in the #64 tv market (and presumably a share of Cincinnati's #34) while Duequesne sits in the #23 but shares it with Pitt.  Personally I'd pick Dayton but my guess is that league executives go with Duquesne but since Duquesne has a shot of being picked up in the eastern division we will hold off the final decision.

In the East there is only one slot available and UMass, Richmond, and Duquesne all vying for it.  While UMass itself isn't in a huge market it has inroads into #7 Boston.  Richmond sits in #58 but probably would attract viewers in some other markets.  UMass would bolt at the first sign of a Big East invite while the other two would be unswervingly loyal.

Ultimately, in this set up I think the teams picked are Xavier, St Louis, Duquesne, and UMass but it could just as easily be Dayton instead of Duquesne and Duquesne in the place of UMass; its really a matter of how much loyalty, market value, program success, and Catholic identity are valued by the powers at be.

Success of this League
This league would be by no means a mid major.  I think 4 tournament bids a year should be expected which is more than the current Atlantic 10 gets and its considered by many to be a major league in basketball.  Villanova, Goergetown, Notre Dame, Marquette, and Xavier should anchor this league with programs like St John's and St Louis occasionally jumping to the lead pack.  Financially, I think it will be a success as well.  Many of these schools are household names.  They are primarily urban schools and while they may not have huge alumni bases they are popular within their media market and should be able to command a sizable tv contract.  They certainly stand to earn more per school than in the watered down, new-look Big East.

A Wild Prediction
I see two events triggering the creation of this league.  It will either happen in the months following the 2012 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament or immediately after the announcement of when Pittsburgh and Syracuse will leave or their actual departure.  MAY 9 UPDATE--SWUNG AND MISSED WITH THE POST-TOURNEY PREDICTION BUT WITH MARINATO'S FIRING ALL BETS ARE OFF AND ANYTHING COULD HAPPEN IN THIS HOUSE OF CARDS.
LATE MAY UPDATE:  BIG EAST COMMISSIONER JOHN MARINATTO HAS BEEN FIRED WHICH INDICATES UNREST IN THE BIG EAST.

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