Penn St football will never be the same again after the sanctions that Mark Emmert and the NCAA forced upon them. (Personally I think they had no business penalizing the program and should be focusing their efforts on preventing violations not reacting to them with their sanctimonious penalties.) This leaves the Big Ten Conference in a pickle because for the next 2 seasons only four members of the 6-team Leaders Division are eligible for postseason play--the Leader's two strongest brands and two out its three strongest teams cannot win the division. This leaves a terrible imbalance between the two divisions and will likely mean that we will see a Leaders Division "Champion" make the title game over a much more deserving 2nd place team from the Legends Division due to the sanctions in place. last year in the Pac-12 a 6-6 UCLA "won" the South Division with a 5-4 conference record because USC was ineligible to carry the South's flag at the title game. That UCLA was crushed by Oregon while a far superior Stanford team sat at home. The same could happen in Big Ten Country the next 2 seasons. I have two suggestions for the Big Ten:
A) Immediately enact a new rule stating that if one or more members of a division are facing postseason bans then the second place team of the opposite division will go to the Big Ten title game if they have a better conference record than the team that would ordinarily represent the division in the title game. This could mean that they would be replacing a team who won the division by default because, like in UCLA's case, the actual winner was ineligible OR as the result of sanctions weakening one or more elite teams that division was utterly noncompetitive compared to the other.
B) Scrap Leaders and Legends and go to geographic--East/West divisions. Leaders and Legends was built on the premise that the 4 biggest money makers/brand names--Penn St, Ohio St, Michigan, and Nebraska--would be split up evenly and that each division would also get one of the two up-and-coming programs--Wisconsin and Michigan St. It was a good idea at the time but with the Penn St program in shambles for the next decade and Ohio St facing issues over their own because of Terrell Pryor's tattoos this paradigm no longer works. Put Penn St, Ohio St, Michigan, Michigan St, Indiana, and Purdue in an East Division and Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, and Nebraska in the West. Let Indiana and Illinois keep a preserved crossover rivalry and the same with Purdue and Northwestern. All the trophies are thus protected. Ohio St, Michigan, and Michigan St hallmark the East while the trio of Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Iowa provide the backbone of the West. When Penn St recovers the conference can reconsider going back to the old divisions but for the time being Leaders and Legends just don't work.
Wednesday, July 25, 2012
Sunday, July 22, 2012
Examining the One-and-Done Rule: The University Perspective
This is the first part of a two-part article examining college basketball's one-and-done rule requiring players to either play a year of college basketball or sit out until they are 19 before entering the NBA draft. As the resident expert on collegiate sports on this blog I will be looking at it from the perspective of college basketball.
The one-and-done rule is infuriating to the college basketball fan. The most gifted and talented players in the sport will play one season before packing their bags, declaring for the draft, and collecting a big paycheck in the process. The one-and-done rule undermines the principle of the college athletes being students first and athletes second. Programs like John Calipari's Kentucky Wildcats exploit this rule to create a revolving carousel of talented players who regularly make deep NCAA Tournament runs while the bench players go to class, study hard, and graduate to keep the program from facing probation and other sanctions for not meeting the NCAA's requirements for APR (Academic Progress Rating).
While many players have played a season of college basketball before transitioning to the NBA and have had successful careers many others have gone pro early only to find themselves unprepared for the next level. I believe that the front offices of NBA franchises would benefit from having more than one season of play (30 some games) to evaluate players who they will be making multi-million dollar investments in.
I also have concerns about young players coming out early having the maturity to handle the money that comes being a professional athlete. A large share of the players in the NBA came from relatively modest or below poverty-line homes and suddenly they have huge piles of money handed to them with no idea how to manage it wisely. Staying in college a year or two longer would give them the opportunity to mature. On a side note I think that the NBA should implement a program in which players under the age of 21 have a portion of their salaries go into a trust that they cannot access until after their rookie contracts expire in order to ensure that these young athletes have a nest egg and do not go broke. Perhaps set it up in such a way that players a rewarded for leaving that money in that trust longer by having the league match whatever interest that money accrues.
I think that when high schoolers sign letters of intent to play college basketball they should be required to stay at least two years. After the end of their sophomore year they can then declare for the draft if they so choose but they should be required to repay the university they played for the cost of the tuition, room, board, and books by the end of their first NBA season. Players who leave after their junior year would be free to forego their senior seasons and go to the NBA early and would not be obligated to reimburse their university.
The one-and-done rule is infuriating to the college basketball fan. The most gifted and talented players in the sport will play one season before packing their bags, declaring for the draft, and collecting a big paycheck in the process. The one-and-done rule undermines the principle of the college athletes being students first and athletes second. Programs like John Calipari's Kentucky Wildcats exploit this rule to create a revolving carousel of talented players who regularly make deep NCAA Tournament runs while the bench players go to class, study hard, and graduate to keep the program from facing probation and other sanctions for not meeting the NCAA's requirements for APR (Academic Progress Rating).
While many players have played a season of college basketball before transitioning to the NBA and have had successful careers many others have gone pro early only to find themselves unprepared for the next level. I believe that the front offices of NBA franchises would benefit from having more than one season of play (30 some games) to evaluate players who they will be making multi-million dollar investments in.
I also have concerns about young players coming out early having the maturity to handle the money that comes being a professional athlete. A large share of the players in the NBA came from relatively modest or below poverty-line homes and suddenly they have huge piles of money handed to them with no idea how to manage it wisely. Staying in college a year or two longer would give them the opportunity to mature. On a side note I think that the NBA should implement a program in which players under the age of 21 have a portion of their salaries go into a trust that they cannot access until after their rookie contracts expire in order to ensure that these young athletes have a nest egg and do not go broke. Perhaps set it up in such a way that players a rewarded for leaving that money in that trust longer by having the league match whatever interest that money accrues.
I think that when high schoolers sign letters of intent to play college basketball they should be required to stay at least two years. After the end of their sophomore year they can then declare for the draft if they so choose but they should be required to repay the university they played for the cost of the tuition, room, board, and books by the end of their first NBA season. Players who leave after their junior year would be free to forego their senior seasons and go to the NBA early and would not be obligated to reimburse their university.
Friday, July 20, 2012
The Big Sky---WAC Merger
I love the idea of the floundering WAC working in tandem with the more stable Big Sky Conference. However their are two ways to approach this collaboration: a full merger in which the Big Sky absorbs the 5 WAC members or an ingenious bait and switch move in which some of the Big Sky members voluntarily move their Olympic sports to the weaker WAC and the two leagues operate independently but the "WAC" schools participate in the Big Sky for FCS football.
The Merger
The merger would work like this:
You take the 11 all-sports members of the Big Sky:
Eastern Washington*
Portland St*
Idaho St*
Montana*
Montana St*
Weber St*
S Utah*
N Arizona*
N Colorado*
North Dakota*
Sacramento St*
...and throw in the 5 newcomers:
Idaho*
Boise St
Seattle
Denver
New Mexico St*
...then create two 8 team divisions based on geography--probably a north/south alignment or some 4-Four team Pods model. For football they would have 15 members playing (all the asterisked teams plus associate members UC Davis and Cal Poly)
The Bait and Switch
The bait and switch is A) financially more lucrative, B) far more complicated and unstable, and C) borderline in violation of NCAA regulations prohibiting "umbrella" conferences. What complicates this move is how do you decide who goes where? Is it a purely geographic move? Or is it more a matter of deciding which schools want to be associated with which other schools? This gets complicated as schools will have conflicting interests and could lead to infighting among the leagues. Who is going to stop a school from deciding they would rather be in the other conference and unbalancing the fragile balance between the two league?.
The Flight Risks
Regardless of how this all shakes out, their are certain schools in this conglomeration are clear flight risks, albeit the departure of certain schools could be beneficial: New Mexico St (or maybe Montana) could potentially be asked to join the MWC to replace a member departing for Big East football--the loss of NMSU would shrink the footprint; the loss of Montana would deprive the league of its strongest football school. North Dakota, on the other hand, could depart for the Summit/MVFC) and the Big Sky confederation would be just fine--they are really more of a Midwestern school anyway and they are better off with the other Dakota schools and Nebraska-Omaha. Sacramento St moving its Olympic sports to the Big West is another potential shake up that might be helpful in slimming down the size of the league if they go with the full merger model. The Hornets are simply a better fit in a league with other CSU and UC schools.
The Spare Parts
The Big Sky Conference box set comes with some extra pieces--namely Cal St Bakersfield and Utah Valley, that could be thrown into the mix to fill the void of a member who backs out or simply used as a filler to get to an even number.
My Personal Preference
I'd like to see a merger but one that leaves out Sacramento St (for Olympic Sports only--they can get into the Big West easy enough and would probably be happier there) and all of North Dakota's sports (left to find an invitation to the Summit). This would create a 14 member league for Olympic sports that spans 8 states and creating a Pacific Northwest Division and a "Four Corners" Division. It also means 14 for football with the 3 California schools (Sacramento St, UC Davis, and Cal Poly) replacing Boise St, Denver, and Seattle in two slightly realigned divisions.
Looking Back at the Bait and Switch
Provided that both Idaho and New Mexico St are both serious about playing FCS football (I'm not convinced that NMSU is as they are waiting for an 11th hour MWC invite should a MWC school go to the Big East/Big West), there is a way to align both the Big Sky and WAC as FCS football conferences and thus this confederation would not only get two automatic berths the NCAA Men's basketball tournament but the FCS Playoffs as well. These conferences would be non-geographic and would be more about grouping the historically stronger schools together in one group and the weaker ones in the other:
UC Davis and Cal Poly become WAC football affiliates (in order to balance the fact that the WAC has 3 non-football schools)
Sacramento St goes to the WAC so they can play football with their instate rivals
Montana and Montana St both go the WAC
This creates a WAC that looks like this: While the Big Sky looks like this:
Seattle (no fb) Eastern Washington
Idaho Portland St
Boise St (no fb) Idaho St
Montana Weber St
Montana St Southern Utah
Denver (no fb) Northern Arizona
New Mexico St Northern Colorado
Sacramento St North Dakota
***UC Davis
***Cal Poly
You then create some sort of scheduling alliance between the two conferences and maybe a revenue sharing plan too in order to compensate the poorer Big Sky schools for facilitating the whole set up. You also have to work something out with the Olympic sports where if one 8-member conference doesn't have enough members in a sport the other conference will allow the members who do play that sport play in their league.
The Merger
The merger would work like this:
You take the 11 all-sports members of the Big Sky:
Eastern Washington*
Portland St*
Idaho St*
Montana*
Montana St*
Weber St*
S Utah*
N Arizona*
N Colorado*
North Dakota*
Sacramento St*
...and throw in the 5 newcomers:
Idaho*
Boise St
Seattle
Denver
New Mexico St*
...then create two 8 team divisions based on geography--probably a north/south alignment or some 4-Four team Pods model. For football they would have 15 members playing (all the asterisked teams plus associate members UC Davis and Cal Poly)
The Bait and Switch
The bait and switch is A) financially more lucrative, B) far more complicated and unstable, and C) borderline in violation of NCAA regulations prohibiting "umbrella" conferences. What complicates this move is how do you decide who goes where? Is it a purely geographic move? Or is it more a matter of deciding which schools want to be associated with which other schools? This gets complicated as schools will have conflicting interests and could lead to infighting among the leagues. Who is going to stop a school from deciding they would rather be in the other conference and unbalancing the fragile balance between the two league?.
The Flight Risks
Regardless of how this all shakes out, their are certain schools in this conglomeration are clear flight risks, albeit the departure of certain schools could be beneficial: New Mexico St (or maybe Montana) could potentially be asked to join the MWC to replace a member departing for Big East football--the loss of NMSU would shrink the footprint; the loss of Montana would deprive the league of its strongest football school. North Dakota, on the other hand, could depart for the Summit/MVFC) and the Big Sky confederation would be just fine--they are really more of a Midwestern school anyway and they are better off with the other Dakota schools and Nebraska-Omaha. Sacramento St moving its Olympic sports to the Big West is another potential shake up that might be helpful in slimming down the size of the league if they go with the full merger model. The Hornets are simply a better fit in a league with other CSU and UC schools.
The Spare Parts
The Big Sky Conference box set comes with some extra pieces--namely Cal St Bakersfield and Utah Valley, that could be thrown into the mix to fill the void of a member who backs out or simply used as a filler to get to an even number.
My Personal Preference
I'd like to see a merger but one that leaves out Sacramento St (for Olympic Sports only--they can get into the Big West easy enough and would probably be happier there) and all of North Dakota's sports (left to find an invitation to the Summit). This would create a 14 member league for Olympic sports that spans 8 states and creating a Pacific Northwest Division and a "Four Corners" Division. It also means 14 for football with the 3 California schools (Sacramento St, UC Davis, and Cal Poly) replacing Boise St, Denver, and Seattle in two slightly realigned divisions.
Looking Back at the Bait and Switch
Provided that both Idaho and New Mexico St are both serious about playing FCS football (I'm not convinced that NMSU is as they are waiting for an 11th hour MWC invite should a MWC school go to the Big East/Big West), there is a way to align both the Big Sky and WAC as FCS football conferences and thus this confederation would not only get two automatic berths the NCAA Men's basketball tournament but the FCS Playoffs as well. These conferences would be non-geographic and would be more about grouping the historically stronger schools together in one group and the weaker ones in the other:
UC Davis and Cal Poly become WAC football affiliates (in order to balance the fact that the WAC has 3 non-football schools)
Sacramento St goes to the WAC so they can play football with their instate rivals
Montana and Montana St both go the WAC
This creates a WAC that looks like this: While the Big Sky looks like this:
Seattle (no fb) Eastern Washington
Idaho Portland St
Boise St (no fb) Idaho St
Montana Weber St
Montana St Southern Utah
Denver (no fb) Northern Arizona
New Mexico St Northern Colorado
Sacramento St North Dakota
***UC Davis
***Cal Poly
You then create some sort of scheduling alliance between the two conferences and maybe a revenue sharing plan too in order to compensate the poorer Big Sky schools for facilitating the whole set up. You also have to work something out with the Olympic sports where if one 8-member conference doesn't have enough members in a sport the other conference will allow the members who do play that sport play in their league.
Wednesday, July 18, 2012
Should the Cavs Pull the Trigger On A Deal For Bynum?
It has recently been reported that the Cavs have entered into talks with the LA Lakers and the Orlando Magic that would send Dwight Howard to LA, Andrew Bynum to Cleveland, and Anderson Varejao and a package of picks to Orlando. At a glance you would think LA would be the biggest winners in this deal but after taking a closer look Cleveland stands to benefit the most from this deal.
LA gets a franchise center who will give you 20 and 10 on a nightly basis as well as 2+ blocks a night. This looks great on paper but when you add in the fact that he ran Stan Van Gundy out of Orlando and doesn't have the mental toughness to deal with criticism. Luckily for him however the Lakers are, and will be, Kobe Bryants team.
Now on to the main point of this piece, Andrew Bynum to the Cavs. If this trade is agreed upon by the previous 2 parties the Cavs have to pull the trigger. Bynum is without a doubt a top center in the NBA and given another year or to could possibly push Howard for the top slot. This benifits the Cavs for 3 reasons. Reason number 1 is that they get a franchise center that will hold down the paint for years to come. Legit centers are hard to come by and if you have a chance at a good one you have to lock him up for years to come.
2nd is that it frees up playing time for younger players to develop. I personally love Anderson Varejao and everything he brings to the court. His skills may be average but you can't coach the hustle and heart he displays every minute of every game he plays. But the facts are he will be 30 at the start of this season and has missed significant time the past two years due to injury. This is certainly due to his style of play but I see no reason to keep a player who can not stay healthy. Just ask the Indians how Grady Sizemore is working out this year. With Varejao out of the picture it frees up Tristan Thompson to start full time and allows for Tyler Zeller to get the minutes he will need to develop. With Bynum drawing much of the attention in the paint it will take the pressure off of those two to contribute at a top level immediatly (provided they both pan out).
The final reason is that their strengths will now match up with the Miami Heat's weakness's. The Heat are going to be the team to beat to get to the finals for a while now. But the two positions the are weak at are center and point guard. Kyrie Irving is arguably a top 5 point guard already and Bynum is hands down in the top 2 of centers currently playing in the Association. Joel Anthony can not handle Bynum and this would present a large problem if the two were to meet in the playoffs. Also Mario Chalmers is a servicable NBA point guard but he will not be able to contain Kyrie Irving for a full 4 quarters. Now I do realize that the Heat have strengths that also match up with are weaknesses but I am looking down the road. Possibly 2 to 3 years from now. At that point Dion Waiters should have developed into a solid starter and Dwayne Wade should have lost a step or two simply due to age. Tristan Thompson has never been looked at as an offensive threat so as long as he can turn into a Serge Ibaka-esque defender he will have lived up to his high draft pick in my eyes. And if Alonzo Gee continues to develop his game he will be a solid contributer as well. Add in Zeller coming in off the bench and Daniel Gibson spotting up from beyond the Arc and you have a team that is built for success. So in conclusion if the Cavs want to speed up the rebuilding process and become a conference finals and possibly even a NBA finals contender they should get this deal done as soon as possible.
LA gets a franchise center who will give you 20 and 10 on a nightly basis as well as 2+ blocks a night. This looks great on paper but when you add in the fact that he ran Stan Van Gundy out of Orlando and doesn't have the mental toughness to deal with criticism. Luckily for him however the Lakers are, and will be, Kobe Bryants team.
Now on to the main point of this piece, Andrew Bynum to the Cavs. If this trade is agreed upon by the previous 2 parties the Cavs have to pull the trigger. Bynum is without a doubt a top center in the NBA and given another year or to could possibly push Howard for the top slot. This benifits the Cavs for 3 reasons. Reason number 1 is that they get a franchise center that will hold down the paint for years to come. Legit centers are hard to come by and if you have a chance at a good one you have to lock him up for years to come.
2nd is that it frees up playing time for younger players to develop. I personally love Anderson Varejao and everything he brings to the court. His skills may be average but you can't coach the hustle and heart he displays every minute of every game he plays. But the facts are he will be 30 at the start of this season and has missed significant time the past two years due to injury. This is certainly due to his style of play but I see no reason to keep a player who can not stay healthy. Just ask the Indians how Grady Sizemore is working out this year. With Varejao out of the picture it frees up Tristan Thompson to start full time and allows for Tyler Zeller to get the minutes he will need to develop. With Bynum drawing much of the attention in the paint it will take the pressure off of those two to contribute at a top level immediatly (provided they both pan out).
The final reason is that their strengths will now match up with the Miami Heat's weakness's. The Heat are going to be the team to beat to get to the finals for a while now. But the two positions the are weak at are center and point guard. Kyrie Irving is arguably a top 5 point guard already and Bynum is hands down in the top 2 of centers currently playing in the Association. Joel Anthony can not handle Bynum and this would present a large problem if the two were to meet in the playoffs. Also Mario Chalmers is a servicable NBA point guard but he will not be able to contain Kyrie Irving for a full 4 quarters. Now I do realize that the Heat have strengths that also match up with are weaknesses but I am looking down the road. Possibly 2 to 3 years from now. At that point Dion Waiters should have developed into a solid starter and Dwayne Wade should have lost a step or two simply due to age. Tristan Thompson has never been looked at as an offensive threat so as long as he can turn into a Serge Ibaka-esque defender he will have lived up to his high draft pick in my eyes. And if Alonzo Gee continues to develop his game he will be a solid contributer as well. Add in Zeller coming in off the bench and Daniel Gibson spotting up from beyond the Arc and you have a team that is built for success. So in conclusion if the Cavs want to speed up the rebuilding process and become a conference finals and possibly even a NBA finals contender they should get this deal done as soon as possible.
Wednesday, July 11, 2012
The Two Most Exciting Landing Spots for Dwight
So, I promised myself I would not write about this, but here it goes anyway. After all I like to speculate too.
The most exciting option - Like most of the sports world, I have fallen completely head over heels in love with the four team deal sending Dwight to Brooklyn and a range of other players and draft picks all over the place. While sources are reporting this deal has fallen through, the Nets are allegedly still attempting to nab Howard. A deal involving Howard and the Nets, likely makes the franchise an instant contender with a starting lineup that would include Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, Gerald Wallace, and Dwight Howard. Finally, New York is a basketball city again and the Eastern Conference has another formidable team, of which it is in desperate need.
The second most exciting option - Last night on NBA Gametime, David Aldridge exclaimed that if he were running the Thunder he would be attempting to trade James Harden and Serge Ibaka for Dwight Howard. Howard, of course, has said that he would only re-sign with Brooklyn, but who could say no to playing for Thunder? This is exciting because the Thunder would obtain the single best center and defensive player in the league. Perhaps Howard would be the added boast the Thunder need to win a championship. The downside to this is that even more talent leaves the East, and the Heat will likely stroll right to the finals.
The most exciting option - Like most of the sports world, I have fallen completely head over heels in love with the four team deal sending Dwight to Brooklyn and a range of other players and draft picks all over the place. While sources are reporting this deal has fallen through, the Nets are allegedly still attempting to nab Howard. A deal involving Howard and the Nets, likely makes the franchise an instant contender with a starting lineup that would include Deron Williams, Joe Johnson, Gerald Wallace, and Dwight Howard. Finally, New York is a basketball city again and the Eastern Conference has another formidable team, of which it is in desperate need.
The second most exciting option - Last night on NBA Gametime, David Aldridge exclaimed that if he were running the Thunder he would be attempting to trade James Harden and Serge Ibaka for Dwight Howard. Howard, of course, has said that he would only re-sign with Brooklyn, but who could say no to playing for Thunder? This is exciting because the Thunder would obtain the single best center and defensive player in the league. Perhaps Howard would be the added boast the Thunder need to win a championship. The downside to this is that even more talent leaves the East, and the Heat will likely stroll right to the finals.
Saturday, July 7, 2012
The Pro's and Con's of Air Force joining the Big East for football
The Big East is actively recruiting a football affiliate in the West and they would love to have Air Force. The Falcons would certainly pull their own weight in the Big East television contract as the Academy has a national following and brand appeal but would they do it?
Pro's for going to the Big East
Increase in television money. The MWC's tv deals have been notoriously bad. While the Big East certainly is not going to bring in Big Ten dollars the Big East will earn them considerably more than they are making now.
Increase in exposure. MWC games are notoriously hard to find on television unless you subscribe to the mtn. which is only available out west. The Big East, regardless of who they ink a tv contract with, will give Air Force exposure throughout the country. Also, membership in this now nationwide conference would give Air Force away games all over the country thus allowing more former airmen and their families the opportunity to see their team live and in person.
Insuring that the Air Force-Navy is preserved. Several months ago Navy was posturing, claiming that the OOC rivalry games that were most important for them to preserve once they went to the BE were Army and Notre Dame. Air Force was the one glaring omission to that list. If they were conference mates Air Force would be guaranteed a game with the Midshipmen on an annual basis.
The WCC offers a very favorable home for Olympic sports. Army and Navy park their other sports in an elite small private school league so why shouldn't Air Force? Air Force would be more likely to compete for conference crowns in a lower profile conference. They would also be reunited with an old friend: BYU.
Even if the Big East thing doesn't work out long term the MWC will definitely take you back. I have no doubt the this conference would soon forgive its wayward upwardly mobile members from betraying the league because their return would raise the MWC profile and put money in its coffers.
If they don't go to the Big East with San Diego St and Boise St there is a good chance another MWC member (UNLV? Fresno St?) will go instead.
Con's for going to the Big East
They would be leaving a stable conference for an unstable conference. The MWC, while not the sexiest in its newest configuration, is not going to collapse. The Big East is comparable to a house of cards--remove the right school and the whole thing falls apart. The conference also has a number of clear flight risks--Louisville, UConn, and Rutgers.
Increased travel expenditures. Joining the Big East would mean probably mean 2 flights a year east of the Mississippi for conference games. Add a third trip in there every other year when they play Army at West Point.
Another looming concern is whether or not Air Force be competitive in the Big East. They do just fine in the MWC but the BE competition will be slightly harder. The last thing Air Force wants to do is become a perrenial cellar dweller.
What does the Big East really offer them? The BE was effectively stripped of its elite status during the playoff negotiations so as far as post season access is involved their position at best would only be modestly improves.
There will probably be financial implications if Air Force ever decides it wants to leave.
This conference is notorious for being a basketball first league and the 8 Catholic basketball schools in the Big East are never going to allow football to reign supreme. In the MWC AFA has an equal stake in conference decision making; as a BE affiliate they would effectively be handing over control of football decisions to the likes of Notre Dame, Providence, and DePaul.
Yet another WAC disbanding blog post
The Denver Post recently published an article with WAC commissioner Jeff Hurd's comments about the future of his dying league: http://www.denverpost.com/colleges/ci_21002204/western-athletic-conference-considers-becoming-non-football-league
Personally, I think Hurd owes it to the universities he works for to be doing all he can to find them homes in new conferences rather than trying to rebuild a conference that is truly on its last leg and any replacement schools they brought in are either A) serious flight risks or B) lousy programs.
I think Hurd should be doing all he can to urge MWC member Air Force to become a football affiliate of the Big East and take their Olympic sports to the West Coast Conference. This does a number of things to help out his remaining members:
The WCC will need a 12th school with the admission of Air Force. Denver ( a WAC school) is the logical choice as they are a natural travel partner for the Falcons.
Air Force going to the Big East for football insures that Boise St and San Diego St will indeed go East as well thus preventing the MWC from reabsorbing them and getting to 12 members which would spell disaster for the remaining WAC schools as the MWC door would essentially be slammed closed, thus preventing anyone from ever getting in.
Air Force's departure opens a spot in the MWC for New Mexico St, the slightly better of the two remaining football schools.
I am also working under the assumption that Boise St will weasel/bribe their way into the Big West. There is a slight caveat here: should Boise take a MWC member with them to the BWC (as opposed to AFA going to the WCC) it probably means that New Mexico St still slips into the MWC but Denver gets left behind.
This leaves Seattle and Idaho. My guess is that Idaho will cozy up to the idea of FCS and the Big Sky thus landing them a stable home.
As for Seattle, they are likely the only team that gets left out (for the time being). There is a chance they can work something out with the Big Sky but my guess is they go back to independent status. If/when BYU gets an invitation to the Big 12 the Redhawks would naturally assume their spot in the WCC.
My guess is that every school I mentioned above would much rather be in the hypothetical conference home I placed them in as opposed to sitting around in a depleted WAC (well, maybe not Seattle as they'd be stuck as an independent). The future WAC, in the best case scenario, that is if everyone stays, would look like this:
Seattle
Idaho
Boise St
Utah Valley
Denver
Cal St Bakersfield
New Mexico St
Texas-PanAm
New Orleans
It is very likely that at least one of those schools will get an invitation to go somewhere else before this league could even coalesce. My advice to the schools left would be "Keep trying to claw your way off this sinking ship before you decide to let on more passengers."
Personally, I think Hurd owes it to the universities he works for to be doing all he can to find them homes in new conferences rather than trying to rebuild a conference that is truly on its last leg and any replacement schools they brought in are either A) serious flight risks or B) lousy programs.
I think Hurd should be doing all he can to urge MWC member Air Force to become a football affiliate of the Big East and take their Olympic sports to the West Coast Conference. This does a number of things to help out his remaining members:
The WCC will need a 12th school with the admission of Air Force. Denver ( a WAC school) is the logical choice as they are a natural travel partner for the Falcons.
Air Force going to the Big East for football insures that Boise St and San Diego St will indeed go East as well thus preventing the MWC from reabsorbing them and getting to 12 members which would spell disaster for the remaining WAC schools as the MWC door would essentially be slammed closed, thus preventing anyone from ever getting in.
Air Force's departure opens a spot in the MWC for New Mexico St, the slightly better of the two remaining football schools.
I am also working under the assumption that Boise St will weasel/bribe their way into the Big West. There is a slight caveat here: should Boise take a MWC member with them to the BWC (as opposed to AFA going to the WCC) it probably means that New Mexico St still slips into the MWC but Denver gets left behind.
This leaves Seattle and Idaho. My guess is that Idaho will cozy up to the idea of FCS and the Big Sky thus landing them a stable home.
As for Seattle, they are likely the only team that gets left out (for the time being). There is a chance they can work something out with the Big Sky but my guess is they go back to independent status. If/when BYU gets an invitation to the Big 12 the Redhawks would naturally assume their spot in the WCC.
My guess is that every school I mentioned above would much rather be in the hypothetical conference home I placed them in as opposed to sitting around in a depleted WAC (well, maybe not Seattle as they'd be stuck as an independent). The future WAC, in the best case scenario, that is if everyone stays, would look like this:
Seattle
Idaho
Boise St
Utah Valley
Denver
Cal St Bakersfield
New Mexico St
Texas-PanAm
New Orleans
It is very likely that at least one of those schools will get an invitation to go somewhere else before this league could even coalesce. My advice to the schools left would be "Keep trying to claw your way off this sinking ship before you decide to let on more passengers."
Tuesday, July 3, 2012
BYU Independence--Unsustainable
When BYU boldly declared independence when fellow Mountain West Conference heavyweights Utah and Texas Christian took their talents to Automatic Qualifying Conferences it looked as if all would be well for the Cougars. Independence would allow them the freedom to schedule more big time opponents and the remainder of the schedule could be filled with regional teams. Furthermore BYU would be free from Comcast and the mtn., the MWC's fledgling cable network that brought in only marginal television revenue. BYU was free to negotiate their own ESPN contract and quickly had a whole bunch of games slated for ESPN. What games that were not picked up by the worldwide leader in sports could be aired on byuTV, the university's widely distributed cable channel.
BYU's bold plan does not appear sustainable anymore. The plan was predicated on being able to fill out the schedule with games against WAC opponents, a conference that had been decimated and was down to 7 football schools and those schools would be desperate to fill their 6 out-of-conference openings and would be willing to ink two-for-one deals with the Cougars. The plan also counted upon big time schools stepping up to play Mormon U.
Today the WAC is dead in the water. All but two of its football schools have moved to the much more stable MWC and the remaining two, particularly Idaho, have to be flirting with downgrading to FCS. BYU can no longer count on being able to get advantageous contracts with regional schools. The MWC schools, still bitter over BYU's betrayal, probably are not eager to schedule BYU as none of the old guard members of the league have scheduled them yet. They surely won't be able to demand two-for-ones because the MWC schools will not be hurting to fill their schedules.
The other half of the equation --games against high profile opponents from across the country hasn't panned out either. In the next three seasons they currently have 2 games against Texas (part of a two-for-one deal), one against Washington St, one against Georgia Tech (the deal was originally a 4-game deal but GT backed out of 2 of those games), a road game at Nebraska, and one against Notre Dame (Notre Dame owes them 4 more games in South Bend and 2 in Provo but doesn't have an opening until 2016).
No more big names are stepping up to play BYU. The Pac 12 plays 9 conference games and starting in 2017 they will be playing an additional game against the Big Ten, The Big Ten only plays 8 conference games but will have a 9th against the Pac 12. The Big 12 has 9 conference games as does the ACC. The SEC refuses to play big names outside the south so BYU-SEC games are unlikely.
The other opponents that BYU has lined up aren't terribly exciting. They play Big East newcomers Houston, UCF, and Boise St; a home-and-home against C-USA's Southern Miss, and MWC opponents Utah St and Hawaii. In 2013 they only have 8 confirmed opponents. In 2014 they only have 7 and in 2015 they only have 5. This should make any athletic director nervous.
BYU's independence experiment cannot be sustained in the new environment where conferences are increasingly playing 9 league games and making alliances to play their big time OOC games against other leagues. To stay relevant BYU needs to take one of three courses:
1) Lighten up on their demands over Tier 3 rights so that they can reach a deal with the Big 12 for full membership. This is the best plan as it puts them in a truly elite conference that is for the most part stable. This is the ideal scenario for BYU because the financial upside would be huge. Also, should they be able to navigate a Big 12 conference schedule successfully they should be a lock for the 4-team playoff.
2) Finally return the Big East's calls about becoming a football affiliate of that league along with San Diego St and Boise St and hope that they are willing to let Mormon U keep their byuTV games. Not as alluring as option 1 but this one will definitely work because the BE is as desperate as a girl without a prom date. It also leaves the door open for option 1 down the road if/when that opportunity manifests itself. It achieves the "national" schedule BYU was hoping for in independence because that league has teams everywhere. It won't be nearly as lucrative and it means keeping all their other sports in the WCC but their share of the Big East's football revenue should be pretty nice.
3) Start their own league where BYU has the ability to call the shots. This might be the most intriguing option; its also pretty hard to pull off but I think it is doable. I would approach Boise St, San Diego St, Houston, and Southern Methodist and sell them on the idea of creating a league just as good as the new look Big East but without all the travel and without the meddling of Catholic basketball schools. Getting them on board is critical because these are going to be the schools that provide the backbone and credibility of this new conference. If they are interested the next step would be to find at least 4 more schools to fill out the league by cherry picking the MWC and C-USA. UTEP, Tulsa, and UTSA out of C-USA would all be great adds--UTSA is a young program but they are oozing with potential and have a great television market. Tulsa has had sustained success and they are in a decent sized metropolitan area. UTEP has taken a downturn in recent years but I think they are still a decent program to have in the new league. From the MWC I would consider Air Force, UNLV, Fresno St, and Hawaii (fb-only). AFA has been strong in recent years and they have a national following similar to BYU. UNLV brings a big market and great basketball--maybe someday their football catches up. Fresno St is a good program in an okay television market. The key to this league is to keep it small so that their are fewer mouths to feed and the schools that draw the most attention (like BYU) won't have to subsidize a bunch of weaker members who are there as fillers. Now that AQ is gone (or at least we're calling it something else and the Big East no longer has it) this league would be just as reputable and likely to make it into the playoff as the Big East. Here are the potential media markets it would have:
5. Dallas-Ft Worth (Southern Methodist)
10. Houston (Houston)
18. Denver/91. Colorado Springs (Air Force)
28. San Diego (San Diego St)
33. Salt Lake City (BYU)
37. San Antonio (UTSA)
42. Las Vegas (UNLV)
55. Fresno (Fresno St)
61. Tulsa (Tulsa)
72. Honolulu (Hawaii)
98. El Paso (UTEP)
112. Boise (Boise St)
While Boise St has a fairly weak home television market, they are a household name at the moment and pull a "national" audience like BYU does so the Broncos bring a lot more to the table than what it appears on the surface. Air Force is another school with a similar nationwide appeal.
Another radical idea would be to try to recruit UCF and USF to join them should they be left in the cold in the Big East-to-ACC shuffle. These schools would bring plenty of value to this new conference not to mention some excellent recruiting trips.
BYU's bold plan does not appear sustainable anymore. The plan was predicated on being able to fill out the schedule with games against WAC opponents, a conference that had been decimated and was down to 7 football schools and those schools would be desperate to fill their 6 out-of-conference openings and would be willing to ink two-for-one deals with the Cougars. The plan also counted upon big time schools stepping up to play Mormon U.
Today the WAC is dead in the water. All but two of its football schools have moved to the much more stable MWC and the remaining two, particularly Idaho, have to be flirting with downgrading to FCS. BYU can no longer count on being able to get advantageous contracts with regional schools. The MWC schools, still bitter over BYU's betrayal, probably are not eager to schedule BYU as none of the old guard members of the league have scheduled them yet. They surely won't be able to demand two-for-ones because the MWC schools will not be hurting to fill their schedules.
The other half of the equation --games against high profile opponents from across the country hasn't panned out either. In the next three seasons they currently have 2 games against Texas (part of a two-for-one deal), one against Washington St, one against Georgia Tech (the deal was originally a 4-game deal but GT backed out of 2 of those games), a road game at Nebraska, and one against Notre Dame (Notre Dame owes them 4 more games in South Bend and 2 in Provo but doesn't have an opening until 2016).
No more big names are stepping up to play BYU. The Pac 12 plays 9 conference games and starting in 2017 they will be playing an additional game against the Big Ten, The Big Ten only plays 8 conference games but will have a 9th against the Pac 12. The Big 12 has 9 conference games as does the ACC. The SEC refuses to play big names outside the south so BYU-SEC games are unlikely.
The other opponents that BYU has lined up aren't terribly exciting. They play Big East newcomers Houston, UCF, and Boise St; a home-and-home against C-USA's Southern Miss, and MWC opponents Utah St and Hawaii. In 2013 they only have 8 confirmed opponents. In 2014 they only have 7 and in 2015 they only have 5. This should make any athletic director nervous.
BYU's independence experiment cannot be sustained in the new environment where conferences are increasingly playing 9 league games and making alliances to play their big time OOC games against other leagues. To stay relevant BYU needs to take one of three courses:
1) Lighten up on their demands over Tier 3 rights so that they can reach a deal with the Big 12 for full membership. This is the best plan as it puts them in a truly elite conference that is for the most part stable. This is the ideal scenario for BYU because the financial upside would be huge. Also, should they be able to navigate a Big 12 conference schedule successfully they should be a lock for the 4-team playoff.
2) Finally return the Big East's calls about becoming a football affiliate of that league along with San Diego St and Boise St and hope that they are willing to let Mormon U keep their byuTV games. Not as alluring as option 1 but this one will definitely work because the BE is as desperate as a girl without a prom date. It also leaves the door open for option 1 down the road if/when that opportunity manifests itself. It achieves the "national" schedule BYU was hoping for in independence because that league has teams everywhere. It won't be nearly as lucrative and it means keeping all their other sports in the WCC but their share of the Big East's football revenue should be pretty nice.
3) Start their own league where BYU has the ability to call the shots. This might be the most intriguing option; its also pretty hard to pull off but I think it is doable. I would approach Boise St, San Diego St, Houston, and Southern Methodist and sell them on the idea of creating a league just as good as the new look Big East but without all the travel and without the meddling of Catholic basketball schools. Getting them on board is critical because these are going to be the schools that provide the backbone and credibility of this new conference. If they are interested the next step would be to find at least 4 more schools to fill out the league by cherry picking the MWC and C-USA. UTEP, Tulsa, and UTSA out of C-USA would all be great adds--UTSA is a young program but they are oozing with potential and have a great television market. Tulsa has had sustained success and they are in a decent sized metropolitan area. UTEP has taken a downturn in recent years but I think they are still a decent program to have in the new league. From the MWC I would consider Air Force, UNLV, Fresno St, and Hawaii (fb-only). AFA has been strong in recent years and they have a national following similar to BYU. UNLV brings a big market and great basketball--maybe someday their football catches up. Fresno St is a good program in an okay television market. The key to this league is to keep it small so that their are fewer mouths to feed and the schools that draw the most attention (like BYU) won't have to subsidize a bunch of weaker members who are there as fillers. Now that AQ is gone (or at least we're calling it something else and the Big East no longer has it) this league would be just as reputable and likely to make it into the playoff as the Big East. Here are the potential media markets it would have:
5. Dallas-Ft Worth (Southern Methodist)
10. Houston (Houston)
18. Denver/91. Colorado Springs (Air Force)
28. San Diego (San Diego St)
33. Salt Lake City (BYU)
37. San Antonio (UTSA)
42. Las Vegas (UNLV)
55. Fresno (Fresno St)
61. Tulsa (Tulsa)
72. Honolulu (Hawaii)
98. El Paso (UTEP)
112. Boise (Boise St)
While Boise St has a fairly weak home television market, they are a household name at the moment and pull a "national" audience like BYU does so the Broncos bring a lot more to the table than what it appears on the surface. Air Force is another school with a similar nationwide appeal.
Another radical idea would be to try to recruit UCF and USF to join them should they be left in the cold in the Big East-to-ACC shuffle. These schools would bring plenty of value to this new conference not to mention some excellent recruiting trips.
A (Somewhat) Radical Idea for the WCC and Air force
The West Coast Conference is the elite private school league of the western United States. With the recent shifts in college athletics the league is slated to have 10 members:
Gonzaga
Portland
Santa Clara
Pacific
St Mary's
San Francisco
Loyola Marymount
Pepperdine
San Diego
Brigham Young
But what if this conference could add Air Force to its membership?
The Big East, despite my strong urging to stay with 13 football schools, seems to be determined to find a way to cement their deal with Boise St and San Diego St as well as try to find a third western team as a football affiliate. Brigham Young and Air Force have to be their two favorites as they are both strong national brands and have good fan followings. My guess is that BYU will continue to test independence until the Big 12 gives them an all sports invitation. However, I think Air Force could put themselves in a great situation (well as great as one can be as a football affiliate to a house of cards) by joining their rival Navy in the Big East and taking the rest of their sports to the WCC. The other two service academies, Army and Navy, have their Olympic sports in the Patriot League, a league of academic minded private schools while pursuing big time football for both exposure and tradition's sake. It seems natural for Air Force to follow a similar plan and the WCC is the natural west coast equivalent. Air Force would be with institutions with similar academic goals as their own and would not have to compete with the large athletic budgets of state schools. Looking at their time in the MWC, which was founded in in 1999, Air Force has only claimed two conference titles, both in the 2003-2004 academic year, and they were in men's basketball and men's cross country. The student athletes at the academy would be much more likely to compete for conference crowns in the WCC.
Were Air Force to decide to make this move to the Big East/WCC the WCC could add Denver as its 12th school and Air Force's travel partner. The elite men's basketball programs might also have a chance to raise their RPI as a result of match ups against Big East schools as "compensation" for being Air Force's conference of convenience--similar to what Temple and the MAC did and the arrangement being worked out between the Big West and Big East as compensation for taking in Boise St and San Diego St.
As far as scheduling goes, the now 12 member WCC could choose not to align into divisions and instead use some sort of schedule rotation. If they did opt for divisions, to avoid the 7 California schools/5 non-California schools issue they should put the 2 Pacific Northwest schools with the 4 Northern California schools and the 3 Southern California schools with BYU, Air Force, and Denver. Travel would be very manageable in this model.
It is understandable that Air Force is hesitant to make the jump to the Big East. That conference hasn't necessarily been the poster child for stability as a college athletic conference. Let's way the pro's and con's"
Gonzaga
Portland
Santa Clara
Pacific
St Mary's
San Francisco
Loyola Marymount
Pepperdine
San Diego
Brigham Young
But what if this conference could add Air Force to its membership?
The Big East, despite my strong urging to stay with 13 football schools, seems to be determined to find a way to cement their deal with Boise St and San Diego St as well as try to find a third western team as a football affiliate. Brigham Young and Air Force have to be their two favorites as they are both strong national brands and have good fan followings. My guess is that BYU will continue to test independence until the Big 12 gives them an all sports invitation. However, I think Air Force could put themselves in a great situation (well as great as one can be as a football affiliate to a house of cards) by joining their rival Navy in the Big East and taking the rest of their sports to the WCC. The other two service academies, Army and Navy, have their Olympic sports in the Patriot League, a league of academic minded private schools while pursuing big time football for both exposure and tradition's sake. It seems natural for Air Force to follow a similar plan and the WCC is the natural west coast equivalent. Air Force would be with institutions with similar academic goals as their own and would not have to compete with the large athletic budgets of state schools. Looking at their time in the MWC, which was founded in in 1999, Air Force has only claimed two conference titles, both in the 2003-2004 academic year, and they were in men's basketball and men's cross country. The student athletes at the academy would be much more likely to compete for conference crowns in the WCC.
Were Air Force to decide to make this move to the Big East/WCC the WCC could add Denver as its 12th school and Air Force's travel partner. The elite men's basketball programs might also have a chance to raise their RPI as a result of match ups against Big East schools as "compensation" for being Air Force's conference of convenience--similar to what Temple and the MAC did and the arrangement being worked out between the Big West and Big East as compensation for taking in Boise St and San Diego St.
As far as scheduling goes, the now 12 member WCC could choose not to align into divisions and instead use some sort of schedule rotation. If they did opt for divisions, to avoid the 7 California schools/5 non-California schools issue they should put the 2 Pacific Northwest schools with the 4 Northern California schools and the 3 Southern California schools with BYU, Air Force, and Denver. Travel would be very manageable in this model.
It is understandable that Air Force is hesitant to make the jump to the Big East. That conference hasn't necessarily been the poster child for stability as a college athletic conference. Let's way the pro's and con's"
Pro's for going to the Big East
Increase in television money. The MWC's tv deals have been notoriously bad. While the Big East certainly is not going to bring in Big Ten dollars the Big East will earn them considerably more than they are making now.
Increase in exposure. MWC games are notoriously hard to find on television unless you subscribe to the mtn. which is only available out west. The Big East, regardless of who they ink a tv contract with, will give Air Force exposure throughout the country. Also, membership in this now nationwide conference would give Air Force away games all over the country thus allowing more former airmen and their families the opportunity to see their team live and in person.
Insuring that the Air Force-Navy is preserved. Several months ago Navy was posturing, claiming that the OOC rivalry games that were most important for them to preserve once they went to the BE were Army and Notre Dame. Air Force was the one glaring omission to that list. If they were conference mates Air Force would be guaranteed a game with the Midshipmen on an annual basis.
The WCC offers a very favorable home for Olympic sports. Army and Navy park their other sports in an elite small private school league so why shouldn't Air Force? Air Force would be more likely to compete for conference crowns in a lower profile conference. They would also be reunited with an old friend: BYU.
Even if the Big East thing doesn't work out long term the MWC will definitely take you back. I have no doubt the this conference would soon forgive its wayward upwardly mobile members from betraying the league because their return would raise the MWC profile and put money in its coffers.
If they don't go to the Big East with San Diego St and Boise St there is a good chance another MWC member (UNLV? Fresno St?) will go instead.
Con's for going to the Big East
They would be leaving a stable conference for an unstable conference. The MWC, while not the sexiest in its newest configuration, is not going to collapse. The Big East is comparable to a house of cards--remove the right school and the whole thing falls apart. The conference also has a number of clear flight risks--Louisville, UConn, and Rutgers.
Increased travel expenditures. Joining the Big East would mean probably mean 2 flights a year east of the Mississippi for conference games. Add a third trip in there every other year when they play Army at West Point.
Another looming concern is whether or not Air Force be competitive in the Big East. They do just fine in the MWC but the BE competition will be slightly harder. The last thing Air Force wants to do is become a perrenial cellar dweller.
What does the Big East really offer them? The BE was effectively stripped of its elite status during the playoff negotiations so as far as post season access is involved their position at best would only be modestly improves.
There will probably be financial implications if Air Force ever decides it wants to leave.
This conference is notorious for being a basketball first league and the 8 Catholic basketball schools in the Big East are never going to allow football to reign supreme. In the MWC AFA has an equal stake in conference decision making; as a BE affiliate they would effectively be handing over control of football decisions to the likes of Notre Dame, Providence, and DePaul.
I say pull the trigger and do this. In the worst case scenario, the Big East experiment fails and the MWC takes them back. The WCC offers a stable and comfortable home for their other sports and Air Force gets national exposure with their football brand while still having a manageable travel itinerary for their Olympic sports.
I say pull the trigger and do this. In the worst case scenario, the Big East experiment fails and the MWC takes them back. The WCC offers a stable and comfortable home for their other sports and Air Force gets national exposure with their football brand while still having a manageable travel itinerary for their Olympic sports.
Monday, July 2, 2012
Another Look at Colonial Athletic Conference Expansion
I've been on a college football hiatus but I'm glad to be writing about college pigskin again. The CAA recently announced that they weren't going to push for an announcement by July 1st but will instead wait until Christmas to make their decision. Based on the rumoring and conjecture going on I am guessing the three schools they WANT to add are Stony Brook, Davidson, and College of Charleston.
This demonstrates that the 5 basketball schools are in the driver's seat and that CAA football could be turmoil as the conference will only have 5 full members playing football (along with 4 affiliates). In some ways this is financially prudent as the conference inked a television deal for basketball so right now basketball is paying the bills but Delaware and James Madison are clear FBS flight risks and should one bolt William and Mary and Towson might start considering other options like the Patriot, who, with their recent Boston U. grab, has demonstrated they are willing to grow their elite league.
I think this new look CAA can succeed but it will be very delicate and the health of the football side of the league will be predicated upon UMass's expulsion from the MAC (and subsequent return to the CAA) and/or finding more football affiliates. Central Connecticut St or Albany might be willing to upgrade their programs and sustain CAA football. Coastal Carolina is not going to be an option because the moment an opening appears in the SoCon they will jump on it.
This demonstrates that the 5 basketball schools are in the driver's seat and that CAA football could be turmoil as the conference will only have 5 full members playing football (along with 4 affiliates). In some ways this is financially prudent as the conference inked a television deal for basketball so right now basketball is paying the bills but Delaware and James Madison are clear FBS flight risks and should one bolt William and Mary and Towson might start considering other options like the Patriot, who, with their recent Boston U. grab, has demonstrated they are willing to grow their elite league.
I think this new look CAA can succeed but it will be very delicate and the health of the football side of the league will be predicated upon UMass's expulsion from the MAC (and subsequent return to the CAA) and/or finding more football affiliates. Central Connecticut St or Albany might be willing to upgrade their programs and sustain CAA football. Coastal Carolina is not going to be an option because the moment an opening appears in the SoCon they will jump on it.
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