When BYU boldly declared independence when fellow Mountain West Conference heavyweights Utah and Texas Christian took their talents to Automatic Qualifying Conferences it looked as if all would be well for the Cougars. Independence would allow them the freedom to schedule more big time opponents and the remainder of the schedule could be filled with regional teams. Furthermore BYU would be free from Comcast and the mtn., the MWC's fledgling cable network that brought in only marginal television revenue. BYU was free to negotiate their own ESPN contract and quickly had a whole bunch of games slated for ESPN. What games that were not picked up by the worldwide leader in sports could be aired on byuTV, the university's widely distributed cable channel.
BYU's bold plan does not appear sustainable anymore. The plan was predicated on being able to fill out the schedule with games against WAC opponents, a conference that had been decimated and was down to 7 football schools and those schools would be desperate to fill their 6 out-of-conference openings and would be willing to ink two-for-one deals with the Cougars. The plan also counted upon big time schools stepping up to play Mormon U.
Today the WAC is dead in the water. All but two of its football schools have moved to the much more stable MWC and the remaining two, particularly Idaho, have to be flirting with downgrading to FCS. BYU can no longer count on being able to get advantageous contracts with regional schools. The MWC schools, still bitter over BYU's betrayal, probably are not eager to schedule BYU as none of the old guard members of the league have scheduled them yet. They surely won't be able to demand two-for-ones because the MWC schools will not be hurting to fill their schedules.
The other half of the equation --games against high profile opponents from across the country hasn't panned out either. In the next three seasons they currently have 2 games against Texas (part of a two-for-one deal), one against Washington St, one against Georgia Tech (the deal was originally a 4-game deal but GT backed out of 2 of those games), a road game at Nebraska, and one against Notre Dame (Notre Dame owes them 4 more games in South Bend and 2 in Provo but doesn't have an opening until 2016).
No more big names are stepping up to play BYU. The Pac 12 plays 9 conference games and starting in 2017 they will be playing an additional game against the Big Ten, The Big Ten only plays 8 conference games but will have a 9th against the Pac 12. The Big 12 has 9 conference games as does the ACC. The SEC refuses to play big names outside the south so BYU-SEC games are unlikely.
The other opponents that BYU has lined up aren't terribly exciting. They play Big East newcomers Houston, UCF, and Boise St; a home-and-home against C-USA's Southern Miss, and MWC opponents Utah St and Hawaii. In 2013 they only have 8 confirmed opponents. In 2014 they only have 7 and in 2015 they only have 5. This should make any athletic director nervous.
BYU's independence experiment cannot be sustained in the new environment where conferences are increasingly playing 9 league games and making alliances to play their big time OOC games against other leagues. To stay relevant BYU needs to take one of three courses:
1) Lighten up on their demands over Tier 3 rights so that they can reach a deal with the Big 12 for full membership. This is the best plan as it puts them in a truly elite conference that is for the most part stable. This is the ideal scenario for BYU because the financial upside would be huge. Also, should they be able to navigate a Big 12 conference schedule successfully they should be a lock for the 4-team playoff.
2) Finally return the Big East's calls about becoming a football affiliate of that league along with San Diego St and Boise St and hope that they are willing to let Mormon U keep their byuTV games. Not as alluring as option 1 but this one will definitely work because the BE is as desperate as a girl without a prom date. It also leaves the door open for option 1 down the road if/when that opportunity manifests itself. It achieves the "national" schedule BYU was hoping for in independence because that league has teams everywhere. It won't be nearly as lucrative and it means keeping all their other sports in the WCC but their share of the Big East's football revenue should be pretty nice.
3) Start their own league where BYU has the ability to call the shots. This might be the most intriguing option; its also pretty hard to pull off but I think it is doable. I would approach Boise St, San Diego St, Houston, and Southern Methodist and sell them on the idea of creating a league just as good as the new look Big East but without all the travel and without the meddling of Catholic basketball schools. Getting them on board is critical because these are going to be the schools that provide the backbone and credibility of this new conference. If they are interested the next step would be to find at least 4 more schools to fill out the league by cherry picking the MWC and C-USA. UTEP, Tulsa, and UTSA out of C-USA would all be great adds--UTSA is a young program but they are oozing with potential and have a great television market. Tulsa has had sustained success and they are in a decent sized metropolitan area. UTEP has taken a downturn in recent years but I think they are still a decent program to have in the new league. From the MWC I would consider Air Force, UNLV, Fresno St, and Hawaii (fb-only). AFA has been strong in recent years and they have a national following similar to BYU. UNLV brings a big market and great basketball--maybe someday their football catches up. Fresno St is a good program in an okay television market. The key to this league is to keep it small so that their are fewer mouths to feed and the schools that draw the most attention (like BYU) won't have to subsidize a bunch of weaker members who are there as fillers. Now that AQ is gone (or at least we're calling it something else and the Big East no longer has it) this league would be just as reputable and likely to make it into the playoff as the Big East. Here are the potential media markets it would have:
5. Dallas-Ft Worth (Southern Methodist)
10. Houston (Houston)
18. Denver/91. Colorado Springs (Air Force)
28. San Diego (San Diego St)
33. Salt Lake City (BYU)
37. San Antonio (UTSA)
42. Las Vegas (UNLV)
55. Fresno (Fresno St)
61. Tulsa (Tulsa)
72. Honolulu (Hawaii)
98. El Paso (UTEP)
112. Boise (Boise St)
While Boise St has a fairly weak home television market, they are a household name at the moment and pull a "national" audience like BYU does so the Broncos bring a lot more to the table than what it appears on the surface. Air Force is another school with a similar nationwide appeal.
Another radical idea would be to try to recruit UCF and USF to join them should they be left in the cold in the Big East-to-ACC shuffle. These schools would bring plenty of value to this new conference not to mention some excellent recruiting trips.
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