Much has occurred since my last post. Butler left the Horizon for the A-10. WAC disintegration is in full swing with Utah St and San Jose St being claimed by the MWC, while C-USA has grabbed LA Tech and UTSA, Texas St is a lock for the Sunbelt and UT-Arlington is on their way too. C-USA also made a wild move by going to 13 and possibly soon to 14 with the aforementioned adds plus the Sunbelt's FIU and North Texas and the A-10's Charlotte. Old Dominion is in line to be #14 but they need to get their house in order before the move is official. So where does this leave us?:
MWC-- 9/10 and very stable
C-USA--13/13 with member #14 in the works
SBC--12/10 and could potentially be still growing, could help out NMSU and Idaho.
WAC--5/2 and rapidly falling apart, will take anyone they can
A-10--at 13, needs 1 or 3 more members, CAA schools likely targets
CAA--11 full members, 5 of whom play fb and 4 fb affiliates, probably losing ODU, will need to make some moves (Big South and America East are targets),
Horizon--down to 9, needs a 10th probably a Summit school
Summit--still at 9, likely to be down to 8, North Dakota, Denver, and Chicago St are options
Southland--11/9 and still have a spot open that will likely go to New Orleans or UT Pan Am, unless NMSU downgrades
Big Sky--still at 11 plus 2 football affiliates, shake ups could cost them their outliers North Dakota and Sacramento St for Olympic sports, could take in WAC refugees
Big West--still at 10 but might lose new acquisition San Diego St, Sacramento St, Cal St Bakersfield, UC San Diego are all options.
WCC--stable at 10 but could be generous and help out Denver and/or Seattle
What's to come
Out West its really a matter of what options New Mexico St and Idaho find themselves. The four possibilities are A) landing full membership in an FBS conference, B) landing a football only membership in an FBS conference, C) downgrading to FCS and joining the Southland or Big Sky, D) becoming an FBS independent
If these schools stick around then the WAC will attempt to rebuild with whoever they can find albeit some of the candidates would like another conference better and would be quick to jump ship if their dream conference came a calling. The collapse of the WAC and Boise and San Diego St's return to the MWC is my dream scenario but the Big Sky could always shelter the Broncos and become their new conference of convenience. The Big Sky is likely to lose ND to the Summit and possibly ND football to the MVFC; Sacramento St's Olympic sports to the Big West is also a real possibility as their baseball and men's soccer are already there.
The Northeast and Atlantic seaboard are going to be hit by the expansion wave next as the A-10 refills its ranks and the CAA figures out which who they have left and what direction they could go. The America East, NEC, MAAC, and maybe even the Patriot could see the cascade impact them and should be on alert. I'm really unsure what FCS football in the region is going to end up looking like and whose banner it will be under: CAA or America East.
If the CAA maintains their football conference and takes the Big South's Stony Brook (fb only) and/or Coastal Carolina or Liberty that league would be devastated and would have to look for relief from the myriad of A-Sun teams with non-scholarship football up and going or in the works. The South, particularly the SoCon could also be subject to FCS to FBS upgrades by Georgia Southern and Appalachian St, further destabilizing the region's football landscape. Through the domino effect, entry-level conference A-Sun might have to turn to DII for upgrades.
In the Midwest its simply a matter of Horizon reloading from the Summit and the Summit turning to the DI options available to it or looking to DII for an upgrade like UM-St Louis.
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