Thursday, November 29, 2012

The Thanksgiving 2012 Realignment

In a span of 8 days, the landscape of college athletics was radically altered.  First came the announcement that Maryland and Rutgers were headed to the Big 10.  Then came word of a preemptive strike by the Big East who took Tulane as a full member and East Carolina for football only.  After a few days of mulling, the faction of the ACC led by Boston College and Florida St prevailed over the Tobacco Road voting block and Louisville became an ACC school, much to the chagrin  of Connecticut, who thought they were the obvious choice, and Cincinnati, who at the eleventh hour had started to campaign for inclusion.  C-USA, having lost 2 schools opted to get their numbers back to 14 by taking Middle Tennessee and Florida Atlantic of the Sunbelt Conference.  Somewhere in that melee Denver decided to depart the dying WAC for the more stable Summit Conference and was promptly replaced with Grand Canyon University from Division II in an effort to keep the WAC alive for another season or two.

While on the surface it looks like things may have subsided, I am doubtful that this round of expansion has come to a halt.  The ACC took Louisville with the understanding that Cincinnati and Connecticut would still be around if they needed them.  This would, of course be because the Big 12 decided to raid the ACC.  There is also an internet rumor circulating that the Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC will work in tandem to strip the ACC of its best universities, creating larger shares of the playoff and television pot for themselves.  The theory is that the Big Ten would take Virginia and North Carolina, which would them allow the SEC to take North Carolina St and Virginia Tech.  The Big 12 could then take their pick of what is left, either selecting their 6 favorite schools to become a 16 member conference like the SEC and Big Ten, or merging with the remaining ACC programs.  Do I believe this rumor? No; but stranger things have happened in the wacky world of college sports.

Things are also  not completely settled out in the Big East.  As of now, the Big East has 16 all-sports members for 2014--7 non-football and 9 football playing members.  Should all the affiliates stay their will be 3 football affiliates in 2014--Boise St, San Diego St, and East Carolina, with a fourth, Navy, coming in 2015.  Even if the Big East maintains all of it members and those schools who have pledged to join in the near future they will still need one more football school in 2015 to get to an even 14. It might require handing out a full membership at this point to entice a school to join at this point.  If so, then ECU probably gets full membership as well.

Big East expansion will likely come at the expense of C-USA.  Tulsa could perhaps be their choice.  This would mean that once more C-USA would have to look for the Sunbelt for replacements.  One rumor is that they would likely consider Western Kentucky and or WAC  orphan New Mexico St.

The Sunbelt is already down to 10 members, 8 of whom play football.  They will inevitably have to look to FCS for their replacements but there is a wide selection to choose from--leading candidates are Georgia Southern and Appalachian St but other possibilities include Jacksonville St, James Madison, Liberty, Lamar, and Sam Houston St.  Taking back former member New Mexico St is another option on the table for the Sunbelt.

The Sunbelt dipping into FCS to replenish its ranks would spread the cascade.  The SoCon would look to the Big South or perhaps the OVC to replace its lost schools.  Big South football is already down to 6 programs and the loss of any more would bring the question of the league's survival as a football conference into question.  Then there is the unstable Colonial Athletic Association; should other FCS dominoes start to move this hybrid league could face serious trouble and be forced to reevaluate its future and possibly let America East take over administration of the football league.

There is also the what ifs of the Big East's western gambit.  If Boise St is no longer satisfied with the Big East's line up and no longer see that league as an upgrade then they could decide to forgo those plans and stay in the MWC and San Diego St would follow.  Perhaps, for the right financial incentives BYU might move back as well.  This would likely mean robbing C-USA of 1 to 3 schools or sending New Mexico St a lifeline by including them in their plans.

In conclusion, realignment is not yet over; it has only begun.

No comments:

Post a Comment