In a span of 8 days, the landscape of college athletics was radically altered. First came the announcement that Maryland and Rutgers were headed to the Big 10. Then came word of a preemptive strike by the Big East who took Tulane as a full member and East Carolina for football only. After a few days of mulling, the faction of the ACC led by Boston College and Florida St prevailed over the Tobacco Road voting block and Louisville became an ACC school, much to the chagrin of Connecticut, who thought they were the obvious choice, and Cincinnati, who at the eleventh hour had started to campaign for inclusion. C-USA, having lost 2 schools opted to get their numbers back to 14 by taking Middle Tennessee and Florida Atlantic of the Sunbelt Conference. Somewhere in that melee Denver decided to depart the dying WAC for the more stable Summit Conference and was promptly replaced with Grand Canyon University from Division II in an effort to keep the WAC alive for another season or two.
While on the surface it looks like things may have subsided, I am doubtful that this round of expansion has come to a halt. The ACC took Louisville with the understanding that Cincinnati and Connecticut would still be around if they needed them. This would, of course be because the Big 12 decided to raid the ACC. There is also an internet rumor circulating that the Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC will work in tandem to strip the ACC of its best universities, creating larger shares of the playoff and television pot for themselves. The theory is that the Big Ten would take Virginia and North Carolina, which would them allow the SEC to take North Carolina St and Virginia Tech. The Big 12 could then take their pick of what is left, either selecting their 6 favorite schools to become a 16 member conference like the SEC and Big Ten, or merging with the remaining ACC programs. Do I believe this rumor? No; but stranger things have happened in the wacky world of college sports.
Things are also not completely settled out in the Big East. As of now, the Big East has 16 all-sports members for 2014--7 non-football and 9 football playing members. Should all the affiliates stay their will be 3 football affiliates in 2014--Boise St, San Diego St, and East Carolina, with a fourth, Navy, coming in 2015. Even if the Big East maintains all of it members and those schools who have pledged to join in the near future they will still need one more football school in 2015 to get to an even 14. It might require handing out a full membership at this point to entice a school to join at this point. If so, then ECU probably gets full membership as well.
Big East expansion will likely come at the expense of C-USA. Tulsa could perhaps be their choice. This would mean that once more C-USA would have to look for the Sunbelt for replacements. One rumor is that they would likely consider Western Kentucky and or WAC orphan New Mexico St.
The Sunbelt is already down to 10 members, 8 of whom play football. They will inevitably have to look to FCS for their replacements but there is a wide selection to choose from--leading candidates are Georgia Southern and Appalachian St but other possibilities include Jacksonville St, James Madison, Liberty, Lamar, and Sam Houston St. Taking back former member New Mexico St is another option on the table for the Sunbelt.
The Sunbelt dipping into FCS to replenish its ranks would spread the cascade. The SoCon would look to the Big South or perhaps the OVC to replace its lost schools. Big South football is already down to 6 programs and the loss of any more would bring the question of the league's survival as a football conference into question. Then there is the unstable Colonial Athletic Association; should other FCS dominoes start to move this hybrid league could face serious trouble and be forced to reevaluate its future and possibly let America East take over administration of the football league.
There is also the what ifs of the Big East's western gambit. If Boise St is no longer satisfied with the Big East's line up and no longer see that league as an upgrade then they could decide to forgo those plans and stay in the MWC and San Diego St would follow. Perhaps, for the right financial incentives BYU might move back as well. This would likely mean robbing C-USA of 1 to 3 schools or sending New Mexico St a lifeline by including them in their plans.
In conclusion, realignment is not yet over; it has only begun.
Thursday, November 29, 2012
Monday, November 19, 2012
The Big East Divorce
With the loss of Rutgers and presumed loss of UConn the Big East is left dazed and confused. ESPN is reporting that future football affiliates San Diego St and Boise St are in discussions with the Mountain West about cancelling their Big East departure and remaining in the conference. Furthermore, it's been speculated that the Big East's top remaining Catholic basketball schools--Georgetown, Villanova, and St John's, could be part of a bold move by the ACC to claim the Eastern Seaboard and capture the basketball glory of the old Big East. The Big East could also potentially be losing some of their best remaining football programs to an expanding Big 12. The US Naval Academy is supposed to be joining the BE for football in 201 but at this point if I'm Navy I'd be cancelling those plans and remaining independent.
Provided UConn, Rutgers, San Diego St, Boise St, and Navy are all lost on the football side and in basketball the Big East loses Georgetown, Villanova, and St John's, we're looking at a Big East consisting of:
Providence
Seton Hall
DePaul
Marquette
Temple*
Cincinnati*
Louisville*
Memphis*
USF*
UCF*
Southern Methodist*
Houston*
At this point I think its time for a divorce. The football and basketball factions are better of separate than together at this point.
For the four basketball schools I would consider asking the top members of the Atlantic 10 about joining them in a new league. St Louis, Xavier, Dayton, UMass, Richmond, George Washington and Duquesne are schools I'd be looking at but that's not to say that I'd take them all. I think the goal should be 12 schools, 6 in the Midwest and 6 in the Northeast. If Villanova no longer in the picture I'd consider adding St Joeseph's as well to keep the Philadelphia market--or--I'd see if Temple could work out a deal to go with the basketball schools but play as a football only member of the new conference created by the old BE football schools. This conference would be attractive in large markets in the Northeast and Midwest.
As for the football schools, I think their best is to recapture the essence of the old Metro/C-USA. I would go after the best programs and markets remaining in the current C-USA to do it. East Carolina, Tulane, and Tulsa all seem like logical picks but I think I'd also gamble on a couple up-an-comers like UTSA and Charlotte. This league could potentially look like this:
WEST EAST
UTSA Charlotte
SMU East Carolina
Houston USF
Tulsa UCF
Tulane Cincinnati
Memphis Louisville
Provided UConn, Rutgers, San Diego St, Boise St, and Navy are all lost on the football side and in basketball the Big East loses Georgetown, Villanova, and St John's, we're looking at a Big East consisting of:
Providence
Seton Hall
DePaul
Marquette
Temple*
Cincinnati*
Louisville*
Memphis*
USF*
UCF*
Southern Methodist*
Houston*
At this point I think its time for a divorce. The football and basketball factions are better of separate than together at this point.
For the four basketball schools I would consider asking the top members of the Atlantic 10 about joining them in a new league. St Louis, Xavier, Dayton, UMass, Richmond, George Washington and Duquesne are schools I'd be looking at but that's not to say that I'd take them all. I think the goal should be 12 schools, 6 in the Midwest and 6 in the Northeast. If Villanova no longer in the picture I'd consider adding St Joeseph's as well to keep the Philadelphia market--or--I'd see if Temple could work out a deal to go with the basketball schools but play as a football only member of the new conference created by the old BE football schools. This conference would be attractive in large markets in the Northeast and Midwest.
As for the football schools, I think their best is to recapture the essence of the old Metro/C-USA. I would go after the best programs and markets remaining in the current C-USA to do it. East Carolina, Tulane, and Tulsa all seem like logical picks but I think I'd also gamble on a couple up-an-comers like UTSA and Charlotte. This league could potentially look like this:
WEST EAST
UTSA Charlotte
SMU East Carolina
Houston USF
Tulsa UCF
Tulane Cincinnati
Memphis Louisville
The Big Ten Appocalypse--Delany opens Pandora's Box What does this mean for everyone else?
Well, just when you think things are about to settle in college sports all chaos ensues. The Big Ten is taking Maryland and Rutgers in order to penetrate Eastern television markets. This is a big blow to both the ACC and the Big East and could in fact end the Big East as we know it depending on how the ACC reacts to the loss of Maryland.
It is strongly believed by most the Connecticut of the Big East will get tapped to replace Maryland in the ACC. There is also conjecture that the ACC will not stop at Connecticut and in order to regain their lost eastern markets they could reach out and take Villanova, Georgetown, and St. John's of the Big East to shore up eastern basketball and the result would be a 14 member football conference and an 18 member basketball conference. This would be the best end result for the ACC. The problem is that the Big 12 could get nervous about this realignment and start making overtures to ACC members like Clemson and Florida St. The loss of these members could potentially cripple the ACC as a football conference.
And now we come to the Big East: If the ACC expansion comes to pass we are potentially looking at a Big East consisting of Providence, Seton Hall, Marquette, DePaul, Temple, Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, South Florida, Central Florida, Houston, Southern Methodist, and football affiliates Boise St, San Diego St, and Navy. I don't even know if a league like that has the will to stay together as a cogent athletic conference. They would be devoid of all of their most attractive members and markets and the basketball product would not be that great as I only see maybe 4 marketable programs on that list. There is also the possibility that the Big 12 becomes active in the expansion game and seeks out schools like Louisville, BYU, and other programs that I'm hesitant to speculate about.
The Big East's survival really depends on who is left there when this conference bloodbath is finished. It might be best for the remaining members to go their separate ways, with the upper south, Florida, and Texas schools starting a new league reminiscent of the old Metro Conference with their old C-USA friends Tulsa, Tulane, East Carolina, and up-and-comers UTSA and Charlotte. Marquette, DePaul, Seton Hall, Providence, and Temple could seek refuge in the Atlantic 10 or attempt to cherry pick the A-10 for its most attractive programs.
This expansion is bound to send shock waves across the landscape of college athletics--the A-10 will be effected and likely the CAA as well and once the shock wave hits the CAA is impacted so too could every small conference on the Eastern seaboard--the SoCon, the Patriot, America East, NEC, MAAC, Big South, Atlantic Sun, and maybe even in land with the Ohio Valley Conference. The shuffling panic caused by the football contingent will no doubt create a cascade among C-USA, the Sunbelt, and FCS super powers, among them Appalachian St and Georgia Southern. Should the Big 12 get caught up in the ruckus then the raids will spread to the heartland and no conference would be safe.
It is strongly believed by most the Connecticut of the Big East will get tapped to replace Maryland in the ACC. There is also conjecture that the ACC will not stop at Connecticut and in order to regain their lost eastern markets they could reach out and take Villanova, Georgetown, and St. John's of the Big East to shore up eastern basketball and the result would be a 14 member football conference and an 18 member basketball conference. This would be the best end result for the ACC. The problem is that the Big 12 could get nervous about this realignment and start making overtures to ACC members like Clemson and Florida St. The loss of these members could potentially cripple the ACC as a football conference.
And now we come to the Big East: If the ACC expansion comes to pass we are potentially looking at a Big East consisting of Providence, Seton Hall, Marquette, DePaul, Temple, Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, South Florida, Central Florida, Houston, Southern Methodist, and football affiliates Boise St, San Diego St, and Navy. I don't even know if a league like that has the will to stay together as a cogent athletic conference. They would be devoid of all of their most attractive members and markets and the basketball product would not be that great as I only see maybe 4 marketable programs on that list. There is also the possibility that the Big 12 becomes active in the expansion game and seeks out schools like Louisville, BYU, and other programs that I'm hesitant to speculate about.
The Big East's survival really depends on who is left there when this conference bloodbath is finished. It might be best for the remaining members to go their separate ways, with the upper south, Florida, and Texas schools starting a new league reminiscent of the old Metro Conference with their old C-USA friends Tulsa, Tulane, East Carolina, and up-and-comers UTSA and Charlotte. Marquette, DePaul, Seton Hall, Providence, and Temple could seek refuge in the Atlantic 10 or attempt to cherry pick the A-10 for its most attractive programs.
This expansion is bound to send shock waves across the landscape of college athletics--the A-10 will be effected and likely the CAA as well and once the shock wave hits the CAA is impacted so too could every small conference on the Eastern seaboard--the SoCon, the Patriot, America East, NEC, MAAC, Big South, Atlantic Sun, and maybe even in land with the Ohio Valley Conference. The shuffling panic caused by the football contingent will no doubt create a cascade among C-USA, the Sunbelt, and FCS super powers, among them Appalachian St and Georgia Southern. Should the Big 12 get caught up in the ruckus then the raids will spread to the heartland and no conference would be safe.
Wednesday, November 14, 2012
Looking at Big East Expansion Candidates (Again)
Alright, same story different day. The Big East still needs to add a member and no one is really jumping up and down screaming "Pick me! Pick me!" right now. So let's take a look at the candidates in order of appeal:
Brigham Young---BYU is the best program available. They have a broad nationwide following among Mormons. They are also a western school, which fits with the Big East's plan to secure its new western flank. BYU does has its setbacks. They are quite demanding in what they want from the Big East regarding televsion revenue and media rights for byuTV. Joining the Big East would mean giving up a lucrative tv deal with ESPN and giving up their new found scheduling independence. BYU also has its eyes on the Big 12.
Air Force---This service academy has a nationwide following and a ton of appeal to media partners. They also fit into the Big East's master western plan. They would be a natural cross-division rival for Navy as well. The problem that the Big East has ran into with AFA is that they are steadfastly loyal to the Mountain West Conference. This is surprising because of their old voting block, "The Gang of Five", Colorado St and Wyoming are the only other members that remain in the league. It would be nice if AFA would simply make arrangements to play these two schools annually out-of-conference (along with their other rival Army) and join up with the Big East.
Army---Army is in this discussion only because they have national appeal and could be used as leverage to get Air Force into the conference. Army struggled when it spent a few seasons in the old C-USA and this conference is better than the first generation of C-USA. Army doesn't want that kind of embarrassment again. Army would really only make sense in the Big East desired to go to 16 members and they were part of a package deal with AFA.
Fresno St---The Bulldogs make it onto this list as an alternative to BYU and AFA should neither of those schools avail themselves to the Big East. They are a solid western mid major, thus fitting into Aresco's plan to secure Boise and San Diego St's membership. Fresno St would jump at the opportunity if it presented itself.
East Carolina--I still hold out hope for the Pirates. They don't fit into the western scheme at all but what I like about them is that they pack their 50,000+ seat stadium each week and they travel well to bowl games. It would be prudent to add them in order to secure bowl tie ins with southern bowl games. In 2014 the bowl deals all get renegotiated and current Big East bowls like the Russell Athletic, Belk, BBVA Compass, and Beef O'Brady Bowls will all be free to pursue deals with the expanded ACC and SEC. It would behoove the Big East to pick up a southern school with a large fan base known for traveling well.
Brigham Young---BYU is the best program available. They have a broad nationwide following among Mormons. They are also a western school, which fits with the Big East's plan to secure its new western flank. BYU does has its setbacks. They are quite demanding in what they want from the Big East regarding televsion revenue and media rights for byuTV. Joining the Big East would mean giving up a lucrative tv deal with ESPN and giving up their new found scheduling independence. BYU also has its eyes on the Big 12.
Air Force---This service academy has a nationwide following and a ton of appeal to media partners. They also fit into the Big East's master western plan. They would be a natural cross-division rival for Navy as well. The problem that the Big East has ran into with AFA is that they are steadfastly loyal to the Mountain West Conference. This is surprising because of their old voting block, "The Gang of Five", Colorado St and Wyoming are the only other members that remain in the league. It would be nice if AFA would simply make arrangements to play these two schools annually out-of-conference (along with their other rival Army) and join up with the Big East.
Army---Army is in this discussion only because they have national appeal and could be used as leverage to get Air Force into the conference. Army struggled when it spent a few seasons in the old C-USA and this conference is better than the first generation of C-USA. Army doesn't want that kind of embarrassment again. Army would really only make sense in the Big East desired to go to 16 members and they were part of a package deal with AFA.
Fresno St---The Bulldogs make it onto this list as an alternative to BYU and AFA should neither of those schools avail themselves to the Big East. They are a solid western mid major, thus fitting into Aresco's plan to secure Boise and San Diego St's membership. Fresno St would jump at the opportunity if it presented itself.
East Carolina--I still hold out hope for the Pirates. They don't fit into the western scheme at all but what I like about them is that they pack their 50,000+ seat stadium each week and they travel well to bowl games. It would be prudent to add them in order to secure bowl tie ins with southern bowl games. In 2014 the bowl deals all get renegotiated and current Big East bowls like the Russell Athletic, Belk, BBVA Compass, and Beef O'Brady Bowls will all be free to pursue deals with the expanded ACC and SEC. It would behoove the Big East to pick up a southern school with a large fan base known for traveling well.
Friday, October 19, 2012
CAA set to snag College of Charleston--What does this mean for realignment?
ESPN's Andy Katz is reporting that College of Charleston will be announcing that they have accepted a CAA invitation today. This would give the once 12 member league 10 members and C of C will be the southernmost member of a conference that extends north all the way to Boston. I am not going to discuss the impact this move will have on the Cougar's program because frankly I don't care. What I am more focused on is what it means for the CAA and SoCon and the rest of the conferences in the region that will feel the shock waves of this long awaited announcement.
Since Davidson and Appalachian St have rebuffed the CAA's advances I think what this means for the CAA is that they will be staying at 10 members and play double round robin schedules. Its going to mean a great deal of travel for members of this league but hopefully they can work out a plan for travel partners to ease that burden.
If CAA's full-time membership is indeed capped at 10 it means that the football conference will have 11 members. 11 can work for a football league--the Big Ten did it for twenty years--but what I think we are going to see is NEC member Central Connecticut St, the lone state school in a private school league, get an invitation to join the now 8 member America East and that the Blue Devils football team will become the 12th member of the CAA football conference with their new conference mates Albany, Stony Brook, New Hampshire, and Maine. The other New England member of CAA football, Rhode Island, will be the 6th member of the CAA's North Division for that sport. I think its a match made in heaven, pardon the pun blue devils.
Should Central Connecticut St depart the NEC for AmEast it creates an interesting imbalance between the 3 confererences in the region. AmEast would be at 9 members, a number they once rested at but in basketball 10 is ideal, particularly when it comes to creating travel partners. The NEC would be at 11 full members only 6 of whom play football (they also have Duquesne as a football affiliate so the fb league would be at 7) leaving that league in a somewhat weakened state particularly since Robert Morris, a football playing member has been flirting with the Horizon League. The MAAC, which consists entirely of private schools is sitting at 9 members right now because Loyola darted for the Patriot League. Will the more elite AmEast and MAAC try to return to the magic number of 10, thus leaving the NEC weakened and in need of a transfusion of DII teams to stay cogent?
As for the status of the SoCon and southern sports I think it ultimately depends on how the SoCon approaches its future. Since football drives the bus and there is the everpresent chance that league standard barers Appalachian St and Georgia Southern have FBS aspirations do they add a school with a football program? The best programs out there with football programs are public schools Coastal Carolina and Jacksonville St. However the private schools hold a great deal of sway in this league and they could be targeting a private school with less than stellar football because they want a better institutional fit. The SoCon could also preserve the delicate 9/12 fb/bb hybrid model and target a southern school without roundball in order to refill their ranks.
If Jacksonville St is picked to go to the SoCon then the fallout is minimal---the OVC replaces them with DII powerhouse North Alabama and while DII is left reeling DI is relatively unchanged. if Coastal Carolina goes then the Big South is left with 11 members, only 5 of whom play football. The league might have to consider merging with an also depleted NEC or restructure their football conference to include the plethora of southern schools who play non-scholarship football and/or are starting up programs. Davidson, Campbell, Mercer, Kennesaw St, Jacksonville, and Stetson could come in as a block and keep Big South football alive.
The conferences that will be hit the hardest will be the so called "Gateway Conferences" at the bottom of the pecking order who are the ones who will be forced to look to DII for new blood because as the conferences above them raid each other the impact trickles down to them. In the north it means the NEC will be left hurting--unless they are able to use the one trump card they hold--football sponsorship--to their advantage. While Big South football may become a causality (or at minimum the walking wounded) of this expansion round I think the A-Sun will be hurt more because the Big South can use football to lure away their membership which includes 4 schools who play or will soon be playing that sport.
Since Davidson and Appalachian St have rebuffed the CAA's advances I think what this means for the CAA is that they will be staying at 10 members and play double round robin schedules. Its going to mean a great deal of travel for members of this league but hopefully they can work out a plan for travel partners to ease that burden.
If CAA's full-time membership is indeed capped at 10 it means that the football conference will have 11 members. 11 can work for a football league--the Big Ten did it for twenty years--but what I think we are going to see is NEC member Central Connecticut St, the lone state school in a private school league, get an invitation to join the now 8 member America East and that the Blue Devils football team will become the 12th member of the CAA football conference with their new conference mates Albany, Stony Brook, New Hampshire, and Maine. The other New England member of CAA football, Rhode Island, will be the 6th member of the CAA's North Division for that sport. I think its a match made in heaven, pardon the pun blue devils.
Should Central Connecticut St depart the NEC for AmEast it creates an interesting imbalance between the 3 confererences in the region. AmEast would be at 9 members, a number they once rested at but in basketball 10 is ideal, particularly when it comes to creating travel partners. The NEC would be at 11 full members only 6 of whom play football (they also have Duquesne as a football affiliate so the fb league would be at 7) leaving that league in a somewhat weakened state particularly since Robert Morris, a football playing member has been flirting with the Horizon League. The MAAC, which consists entirely of private schools is sitting at 9 members right now because Loyola darted for the Patriot League. Will the more elite AmEast and MAAC try to return to the magic number of 10, thus leaving the NEC weakened and in need of a transfusion of DII teams to stay cogent?
As for the status of the SoCon and southern sports I think it ultimately depends on how the SoCon approaches its future. Since football drives the bus and there is the everpresent chance that league standard barers Appalachian St and Georgia Southern have FBS aspirations do they add a school with a football program? The best programs out there with football programs are public schools Coastal Carolina and Jacksonville St. However the private schools hold a great deal of sway in this league and they could be targeting a private school with less than stellar football because they want a better institutional fit. The SoCon could also preserve the delicate 9/12 fb/bb hybrid model and target a southern school without roundball in order to refill their ranks.
If Jacksonville St is picked to go to the SoCon then the fallout is minimal---the OVC replaces them with DII powerhouse North Alabama and while DII is left reeling DI is relatively unchanged. if Coastal Carolina goes then the Big South is left with 11 members, only 5 of whom play football. The league might have to consider merging with an also depleted NEC or restructure their football conference to include the plethora of southern schools who play non-scholarship football and/or are starting up programs. Davidson, Campbell, Mercer, Kennesaw St, Jacksonville, and Stetson could come in as a block and keep Big South football alive.
The conferences that will be hit the hardest will be the so called "Gateway Conferences" at the bottom of the pecking order who are the ones who will be forced to look to DII for new blood because as the conferences above them raid each other the impact trickles down to them. In the north it means the NEC will be left hurting--unless they are able to use the one trump card they hold--football sponsorship--to their advantage. While Big South football may become a causality (or at minimum the walking wounded) of this expansion round I think the A-Sun will be hurt more because the Big South can use football to lure away their membership which includes 4 schools who play or will soon be playing that sport.
Wednesday, October 10, 2012
A Big East Update
I have neglected to mention that Notre Dame has dumped the Big East in favor the ACC where it will play it Olympic sports as a full member while maintaining its independence in football. The ACC was smart and learned from the Big East's mistakes: while the Big East was okay with a gentlemen's agreement from the Irish to face their football programs the ACC insisted that the Irish will play 5 ACC teams a year on a rotating basis.
The ACC is suddenly stable for at least another decade while the Big East is left reeling and the Big 12 is left scratching its head now that their pipedream of landing Notre Dame is gone--not that they ever had a realistic shot at ever landing them. The Big Ten is similarly infuriated that they have been jilted by the Irish for basketball league. The Irish added insult to injury by cancelling their series with Michigan and I would not be surprised to see the Michigan St and Purdue games also go by the wayside.
It once again brings up questions concerning the Big East's stability? With the Irish gone and no longer providing a bridge between the two factions do the Catholic schools finally consider asking for a divorce settlement?
Then there is the issue of the television deal and that elusive 14th football school. Aresco is getting desperate. We are in that exclusive negotiating window with ESPN and it seems that neither BYU or Air Force like the numbers enough to commit to the Big East for football. Mike got caught airing the conference's dirty laundry when it came out that he was trying to coax Navy into coming sooner than the agreed 2015 date. Mike needs the national audience that the Midshipmen will draw in order to bump up the dollar value of the media deal and presumably get that 14th school, BYU, interested. Navy has no interest in coming early; they aren't ready and an early entry date would mean cancelling contracts against scheduled opponents which would both be costly and potentially burn bridges for Annapolis. The Midshipmen are men and women of integrity and are not about to renig on their contracts. I am still of the opinion that Navy is better off remaining an independent and staying out of this Big East mess. The same goes for the other service academies.
Then we have to wonder if the Big East will consider filling Notre Dame's vacancy with a Catholic basketball school. Xavier and St Louis come to mind. Scheduling for a 17 member basketball league is sure to be a daunting task
The ACC is suddenly stable for at least another decade while the Big East is left reeling and the Big 12 is left scratching its head now that their pipedream of landing Notre Dame is gone--not that they ever had a realistic shot at ever landing them. The Big Ten is similarly infuriated that they have been jilted by the Irish for basketball league. The Irish added insult to injury by cancelling their series with Michigan and I would not be surprised to see the Michigan St and Purdue games also go by the wayside.
It once again brings up questions concerning the Big East's stability? With the Irish gone and no longer providing a bridge between the two factions do the Catholic schools finally consider asking for a divorce settlement?
Then there is the issue of the television deal and that elusive 14th football school. Aresco is getting desperate. We are in that exclusive negotiating window with ESPN and it seems that neither BYU or Air Force like the numbers enough to commit to the Big East for football. Mike got caught airing the conference's dirty laundry when it came out that he was trying to coax Navy into coming sooner than the agreed 2015 date. Mike needs the national audience that the Midshipmen will draw in order to bump up the dollar value of the media deal and presumably get that 14th school, BYU, interested. Navy has no interest in coming early; they aren't ready and an early entry date would mean cancelling contracts against scheduled opponents which would both be costly and potentially burn bridges for Annapolis. The Midshipmen are men and women of integrity and are not about to renig on their contracts. I am still of the opinion that Navy is better off remaining an independent and staying out of this Big East mess. The same goes for the other service academies.
Then we have to wonder if the Big East will consider filling Notre Dame's vacancy with a Catholic basketball school. Xavier and St Louis come to mind. Scheduling for a 17 member basketball league is sure to be a daunting task
Cal State Bakersfield and Utah Valley to the WAC
It's been some time since I have written a blog article but that is mainly because there has been little movement in the college sports world as everyone is either watching and waiting to find out what the Big East does regarding its future television contract and membership or they are waiting for the stalemate the CAA is facing with its desired expansion candidates showing little interest in joining a basketball conference spanning from Boston to Wilmington, NC and possibly further.
Well yesterday the WAC, yes the WAC still exists, added Cal State Bakersfield and Utah Valley to its ranks bringing total membership to a whopping 6---the others are Idaho, New Mexico St, Denver, and Seattle. This is a great thing for the Roadrunners and Wolverines but I doubt much of the rest of the NCAA landscape took notice. The decision to keep the WAC going through at least the 2013-2014 academic year, and possibly the 2014-2015 one as well appears to me nothing more than a stall tactic. Despite Craig Thompson telling them it isn't happening, New Mexico St and Idaho are holding out for some dramatic change involving a MWC member defecting to the Big East for football thus garnering one of them, likely NMSU a slot in the more prestigious and stable MWC. My belief is that the two schools have a gentleman's agreement to try out FBS independence for two years to see if A) they can make it work and, B) to hold out a little while longer for the MWC to let them in. Once one (NMSU) gets an invite, the other (Idaho) will bid them adieu and promptly join the Big Sky and downgrade to FCS. This seems logical as Idaho has actually been talking to Big Sky officials and got permission from their board of regents for permission to make the move. At which point, the WAC would be no more. My guess is there thinking is that they can make independence work so long as there are the two of them--one cannot make it alone without the other and while Idaho could move to the Big Sky immediately they are holding out hope and trying to help out New Mexico St. The Vandals are not doing this purely out of altruism however: both Idaho and New Mexico St stand to collect paychecks for playing guarantee (body bag) games against major conference foes. Idaho will get paychecks from Ole Miss and Washington St in 2013 and Florida in 2014. New Mexico St similarly, will collect a handsome sum in 2013 for putting teams on the field against Texas and UCLA.
Denver and Seattle are also content with keeping the WAC alive a little while longer. Neither has any where to go at the moment so a conference schedule, albeit a small and weak one, and access to the NCAA Men's basketball tournament is preferable to being on their own. Denver, Seattle, and the pair of football schools also have a financial incentive to keep the WAC alive because they can reap whatever television monies that are due to the WAC as well as collect any exit fees from the departing schools. Denver and Seattle are playing a waiting game of their own with the private school league WCC. The West Coast Conference seems content with 10 but Seattle and Denver are still hoping that the respective television markets they reside in, even if they are only delivering a tiny share, will catch the attention of the WCC. There is also the matter of BYU and should they ever go to the Big 12 it could provide an opportunity for one of those schools to get into the WCC.
That #12 slot in the Big West is also still sitting there too. It could go to a MWC-to BEfb defector or be filled by another program like Cal St Bakersfield or Sacramento St
In short, there is nothing to dramatic or revealing about the WAC expansion announced this week. In fact, their won't be anything conclusive until the Big East finally makes a move. If 2014 rolls around and nothing has happened and we still have the same 6 schools residing in the WAC when the WAC's two-year waiver with the NCAA regarding their membership falling below 7 is up expect them to call up the Grand Canyon University Antelopes to prolong the life of the conference a little longer. Grand Canyon is already positioned itself to where it can make a move it simply needs an invite now.
Well yesterday the WAC, yes the WAC still exists, added Cal State Bakersfield and Utah Valley to its ranks bringing total membership to a whopping 6---the others are Idaho, New Mexico St, Denver, and Seattle. This is a great thing for the Roadrunners and Wolverines but I doubt much of the rest of the NCAA landscape took notice. The decision to keep the WAC going through at least the 2013-2014 academic year, and possibly the 2014-2015 one as well appears to me nothing more than a stall tactic. Despite Craig Thompson telling them it isn't happening, New Mexico St and Idaho are holding out for some dramatic change involving a MWC member defecting to the Big East for football thus garnering one of them, likely NMSU a slot in the more prestigious and stable MWC. My belief is that the two schools have a gentleman's agreement to try out FBS independence for two years to see if A) they can make it work and, B) to hold out a little while longer for the MWC to let them in. Once one (NMSU) gets an invite, the other (Idaho) will bid them adieu and promptly join the Big Sky and downgrade to FCS. This seems logical as Idaho has actually been talking to Big Sky officials and got permission from their board of regents for permission to make the move. At which point, the WAC would be no more. My guess is there thinking is that they can make independence work so long as there are the two of them--one cannot make it alone without the other and while Idaho could move to the Big Sky immediately they are holding out hope and trying to help out New Mexico St. The Vandals are not doing this purely out of altruism however: both Idaho and New Mexico St stand to collect paychecks for playing guarantee (body bag) games against major conference foes. Idaho will get paychecks from Ole Miss and Washington St in 2013 and Florida in 2014. New Mexico St similarly, will collect a handsome sum in 2013 for putting teams on the field against Texas and UCLA.
Denver and Seattle are also content with keeping the WAC alive a little while longer. Neither has any where to go at the moment so a conference schedule, albeit a small and weak one, and access to the NCAA Men's basketball tournament is preferable to being on their own. Denver, Seattle, and the pair of football schools also have a financial incentive to keep the WAC alive because they can reap whatever television monies that are due to the WAC as well as collect any exit fees from the departing schools. Denver and Seattle are playing a waiting game of their own with the private school league WCC. The West Coast Conference seems content with 10 but Seattle and Denver are still hoping that the respective television markets they reside in, even if they are only delivering a tiny share, will catch the attention of the WCC. There is also the matter of BYU and should they ever go to the Big 12 it could provide an opportunity for one of those schools to get into the WCC.
That #12 slot in the Big West is also still sitting there too. It could go to a MWC-to BEfb defector or be filled by another program like Cal St Bakersfield or Sacramento St
In short, there is nothing to dramatic or revealing about the WAC expansion announced this week. In fact, their won't be anything conclusive until the Big East finally makes a move. If 2014 rolls around and nothing has happened and we still have the same 6 schools residing in the WAC when the WAC's two-year waiver with the NCAA regarding their membership falling below 7 is up expect them to call up the Grand Canyon University Antelopes to prolong the life of the conference a little longer. Grand Canyon is already positioned itself to where it can make a move it simply needs an invite now.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)