In they nasty, uncivilized world of college sports realignment there are sometimes casualties. It has happened before and it has happened again. Sometimes a band of misfits steps in and takes over a dying conference when its on death's doorstep like Seattle, Utah Valley, Cal St Bakersfield, Gran Canyon, Texas-PanAm, and Chicago St have done with the WAC. However, as a result of the spawning of the Catholic 7 Conference--it's just a working name, I'm sure it will eventually be called the Big East--I think another conference will in turn die. The round of realignment caused by this new league's formation will surely leave one of the conferences in the northeastern United States so depleted that they will have to close up shop. Let's look at the conferences and what their fates might be:
Catholic 7
Number of Members: 7
States Covered: Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Washington D.C., Illinois, Wisconsin
The Scoop: This league is going to grow and it will be at the expense of the Atlantic 10. Expect them to take at least 3 A-10 schools with Xavier, Butler, and Dayton being the first to go and St Louis, Duquesne, Richmond and the MVC's Creighton also being in consideration.
Atlantic Ten
Number of Members: 14
States Covered: MA, RI, NY, PA, DC, VA, OH, IN, MO
The Scoop: The A-10 is going to be striped of its best schools, there is no doubt about that. The question is how many and will the Midwestern flank be completely gone? Even if they lose 3 of their 4 Midwestern schools they may want to jettison the fourth (likely St Louis) because there are no more candidates left in the Midwest for A-10 inclusion. The A-10 is not without options. The CAA is a likely source for new members with both private school options--Northeastern, Hofstra, and Drexel, as well as public ones--George Mason. If the A-10 options don't suit their fancy or their aren't enough there are also additional private school options from the MAAC as well as public schools in America East that they could choose from. I don't see this conference dying but the direction their reloading takes may very well determine which conference does.
Colonial Athletic Association
Number of Members: 10
States Covered: MA, NY, PA, DE, MD, VA, NC, SC
The Scoop: This conference is still trying to recover from its last round of defections. These conference's large footprint and hybrid conference model makes it particularly vulnerable to being raided to the point that it cannot be repaired. It the A-10 guts the geographic middle of the conference it will be difficult for the northern and southern wings to stick together as a conference. Furthermore, this conference is vulnerable to raids from conferences beneath it in stature as a result of geography and academic emphasis. William & Mary and possibly Towson could very well be lured by the scholarly focused Patriot League. If they were to lose members to both the A-10 and Patriot League the Northern schools could very well find themselves petitioning to join a conference like America East while the Southern schools (UNC-Wilmington and College of Charleston) would be left looking for a southern home. The northern schools joining up with America East might not be a terrible idea because a number of the schools are former AmEast members.
America East:
Number of Members: 8
States Covered: ME, NH, VT, CT, NY, MD
The Scoop: This conference is made up of 7 public schools and one private one, Hartford. The current small size of the league is concerning because the loss of just a few members could kill the league. The CAA should find many of these schools to be attractive replacements if that conference is in a state where their remaining membership can reach a consensus on who to add. America East would be wise to make a pre-emptive strike on the CAA and hope they can force the CAA to negotiate terms amicable to America East.
Patriot
Number of Members: 10
States Covered: MA, NY, PA, MD, DC
The Scoop: This conference is not at risk of losing members but they could become predatory and try to take advantage of the weakened state of other leagues--particularly the CAA. They could easily grab William and Mary and Towson (both football schools, as well as Richmond's football program) to solidify their own football conference. They have been proactive in recent months, taking Boston University and Loyola of Maryland when there was no threat of any Patriot schools departing. Should they be proactive again it could hasten the death of another league by denying them two potential members.
MAAC
Number of Members: 11
States Covered: CT, NY, NJ
The Scoop: This private school league recently suffered a defection (Loyola of MD) and in turn added two replacements--Quinnipiac and Monmouth, and nearly added a third in Wagner. The MAAC has some private schools that could be attractive to the A-10 like Siena. Should this league suffer losses and as result decide to find its equilibrium at 12 it could spell disaster to the league beneath it--the NEC. Much like the Patriot, this league is not at risk at folding but could be a key player in causing the death of another.
NEC
Number of Members: 10
States Covered: RI, CT, NY, NJ, PA, MD
The Scoop: The NEC is the Northeast's gateway league--its where DII upgrades find their first home in the big leagues. This makes the NEC particularly vulnerable when realignment has a cascade effect, which it almost always does. Sponsorship of a football conference was once the NEC's chief bargaining chip but that might not be enough to keep members in the league as Monmouth has left and Wagner would have too had their been enough yes votes for their inclusion in the MAAC. This is primarily a private school league but its lone public school Central Connecticut St has longed to be part of America East and if America East feels like there is a threat to their stability then the Blue Devils will be gone. On the opposite end of the geographic footprint Robert Morris has been hoping to land an invite to the Horizon League which currently has an opening but that league has been tightlipped about their own expansion intentions (or lack thereof). This is also the go to place for the MAAC when they need new members and Wagner is next on deck to depart. The NEC will no doubt see changes in this expansion--either by being forced to shut its doors or dig deep into DII for replacements or by being a parachute conference for refugees of another conference that fell apart.
My money is on CAA or AmEast being the conference sacrificed. I just see too much infighting among the CAA's members and I just don't see the Northern and Southern wings cooperating and the temptation to go elsewhere will just be too great for George Mason, Drexel, Northeastern, Hofstra, William & Mary, and Towson should a more stable offer come there way. America East could easily swoop in and swallow up most of the leftovers after the A-10 and Patriot have taken what they wanted.
The other way this could go is that the CAA is able to keep itself together but they hit America East so hard the remaining schools are forced to scatter or pull in replacements to the point that the NEC dries up or the CAA offers America East a full merger (or vice versa) and the other party accepts.
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