The departure of the Catholic 7 really jeopardizes things for the Big East football conference. As it stands now, this is what we are looking at for 2014:
UConn
Temple
Cincinnati
East Carolina (fb only)
South Florida
Central Florida
Memphis
Tulane
Southern Methodist
Houston
Boise St (fb only)
San Diego St (fb only)
*Navy is set to join for football only in 2015.
It's hard to tell if all of these schools will still be there and how this league can go about the rebuilding process. UConn and Cincinnati are still actively trying to woo a suitor from the Power 5 Conferences and escape the Big East. The others would be too if they thought they had a real shot at hearing a yes. Navy may want to back out of this mess. You also have the real possibility of the pair of Western Football-Only members backing out and returning to full membership in the Mountain West Conference. There is even the threat that they could take the pair of Texas schools with them.
The first thing the Big East needs to do is give East Carolina full membership. It's not like their are any Catholic schools who are going to veto the move any more. Doing so gives the Big East or whatever the league will be called, an air of stability.
BEST CASE SCENARIO
The next thing to do is gauge where Boise St and San Diego St stand on the future of the conference and what it will take to keep them part of the league. This might require going to a 16-member all-sports model and letting those two schools pick out western schools to round out the membership. Some of the schools that have previously turned down football-only membership like Air Force and Fresno St might change their mind if it was an all-sports offer and there would be an 8-team division of schools west of the Mississippi. This league might look something like this:
East--UConn, Temple, Cincinnati, East Carolina, South Florida, Central Florida, Memphis, Tulane
West--Houston, SMU, Tulsa, UTEP, Air Force, Boise St, San Diego St, Fresno St
I just threw out a few names--they could be swapped for just about any upper tier C-USA West or MWC member or even BYU if they could somehow get them on board.
The repercussions of this could be that the MWC limps away so weakened it has no choice but to add New Mexico St and Idaho or talk merger with the depleted Sunbelt. For every school C-USA loses they will no doubt go after a Sunbelt school to fill the void with Western Kentucky being the first to get the call up.
For a number of reasons I really do not like this idea. I am not a fan of a coast-to-coast league and I think that Boise St and San Diego St would be better served by sticking with the MWC and trying to coax SMU and Houston to come join them rather than putting their faith in a UConn and Cincy led conference whose name has forever been tarnished.
BOISE ST AND SAN DIEGO ST ARE NO LONGER INTERESTED SCENARIO
If Boise St and San Diego St cannot be kept in the fold then the Big East will have no choice but to rebuild within the footprint of the 2005-2012 version of C-USA. Adding 2 more members would get the league up to 12 members and the league would at least be in stable condition. However, with the loss of Boise St and San Diego St the Big East cannot be picky about markets or pick a developing program. They will need to pick someone who is solid now if they are going to be able to build a strength-of-schedule for their conference champion that will top that of the now strengthened Mountain West Conference. I think this is where Tulsa would come into play for member #11. After that it gets hazy. The other 2005-2012 C-USA schools are not that hot: Marshall, UAB, Southern Miss, Rice, UTEP. The Big East would either have to hold at 11, add one of those, or take a chance on a start up like UTSA.
BOISE ST AND SAN DIEGO ST ARE NO LONGER INTERESTED AND NOT ONLY THAT, THEY ARE TAKING THE TEXAS SCHOOLS WITH THEM SCENARIO
This would be the worst case scenario and if the MWC went to 16 and took two more programs in the vicinity of Texas (like Tulsa and Tulane) then things for the remaining Big East schools would be even worse. This would, at best, leave the Big East with:
UConn
Temple
Cincinnati
East Carolina
USF
UCF
Memphis
Tulane
The schools who departed C-USA can't simply go back because C-USA already replaced them with new schools like Old Dominion, Charlotte, FAU, FIU, Middle Tennessee, LA Tech, UTSA, and North Texas. They would have to get at least 4 of the 6 C-USA schools who still have voting rights (this could become 4 out of 5 should Tulsa or UTEP go to the MWC or 3 of the 4 if both go) to vote to dissolve C-USA and then invite those schools to all join the remaining Big East schools. Dissolution would save the C-USA schools millions each. This would then mean that all of the schools who were scheduled to become C-USA schools would have to join forces with the Sunbelt which potentially would be a 16 member football league with two non-fb schools.
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