The Mountain West Conference would love to reclaim BYU as a member of their conference. However there is a slight problem--BYU seems content as an FBS independent and the West Coast Conference has proved to be an excellent conference of convenience for BYU. BYU is one of 3 stellar basketball programs in that conference--the other two being Gonzaga and St Mary's, and that great triumvirate will guarantee the WCC at least two bids for the foreseeable future.
When it comes to MWC-BYU affairs there are a few things to consider. BYU has television clout and can command a few million dollars a year for their home games in television revenue. What BYU lacks as an independent is ample access to the new playoff system--something that the MWC has so long as their champion is ranked higher than the champion of the Big East, Sunbelt, MAC, and C-USA. BYU on the other hand has to be ranked in the top 4 to be guaranteed a spot in one of these elite games. So far in discussions BYU has taken the attitude that the MWC needs them more than they need the MWC. For the most part this is true--so long as BYU has a stable home in the WCC for their Olympic sports.
Should the MWC create instability within the WCC this could all change. The MWC currently has 11 full members and Hawaii as a football only affiliate. This was due to an arrangement with Hawaii when the WAC was collapsing where the MWC would take in their football program if Hawaii parked the rest of their sports in the less prestigious Big West. 11 is an awkward number for scheduling purposes; 12 would be more ideal. This is where Gonzaga fits in. Gonzaga, who does not sponsor football and has no aspirations to do so, could even out the MWC and take Hawaii's spot in Olympic sports. Gonzaga has already demonstrated that they would be willing to knife their private school WCC brethren in the back when they announced that they would be willing to join the Catholic 7 if the Catholic 7 wanted to become a nationwide conference (and presumably St Mary's would come too). The MWC is a better basketball conference than the WCC. According to ESPN's Joe Lunardy's Bracketology for 15 January 2013 the MWC is a 6 bid league--5) San Diego St, 5) New Mexico 7) UNLV, 8) Boise St, 10) Wyoming, and 11) Colorado St. Meanwhile only BYU and Gonzaga of the WCC are currently predicted to make the tournament. If Gonzaga could be convinced to jump to the MWC it would severely weaken the WCC and might give the MWC the leverage needed to land BYU.
If they were successful in pressuring the Cougars into returning another football school would be needed to balance out the league at 14 and UTEP would be a natural fit. They have a decent football pedigree and a strong basketball program. The MWC also has another strong basketball program coming in for 2013--Utah St. If this gambit was successful it would make the MWC the undisputed top basketball conference in the West and reduce the WCC to a one-bid league. The addition of BYU to the MWC for football would likely give the MWC a stranglehold on the bid for a big money bowl in the new playoff system. As far as divisions go Boise St would anchor the Western Disvison while BYU would anchor the Eastern (Mountain) Division:
Mountain (East)
BYU
Utah St
Wyoming
Colorado St
Air Force
New Mexico
UTEP
West
Boise St
Nevada
UNLV
San Diego St
Fresno St
San Jose St
Hawaii (fb)/Gonzaga (Olympics)
Another side effect of this move is that Gonzaga would be a convenient travel partner for Boise St.
With all of this considered the Mountain West should make a gutsy attempt to lure Gonzaga and BYU into the conference. Even if bringing in Gonzaga isn't enough to lure BYU it would still bring the MWC some basketball revenue and relieve a few scheduling headaches for the commissioner's office.
Saturday, January 19, 2013
Friday, January 11, 2013
What's the hold up with San Diego St?
If you've been following college sports realignment than you know that San Diego St was part of a package deal with Boise St to become football only members of the Big East Conference. Since then the Big East has lost Automatic Qualifying status to the BCS, which is being replaced by a 4-team playoff and a system of "access" bowls, as well as a few members--Rutgers to the Big Ten, Louisville to the ACC, and the seven non-football schools to a new yet-to-be named conference. After considering all of this and the travel subsidies that they were going to have to pay the Big West for being their conference of convenience Boise st opted to renig on the Big East and stay in the Mountain West, which gave them a sweetheart deal to stay.
Part of the deal the MWC made with Boise St is that San Diego St has the right-of-first-refusal until January 31st. What this deal didn't specify was what terms the MWC had to offer San Diego St. So San Diego St is sitting in limbo. The MWC schools are being childish and trying to take the Aztecs to the cleaners for their transgressions (which Boise St encouraged them to make but somehow has gotten forgiven for).
San Diego is stuck in this bad situation where they are stuck in between the Big East and Mountain West. The Big East deal wasn't incredibly awful for SDSU. It meant paying a ton to fly the football team to the other side of the country but in the long run the athletic department was set to save $100,000 a year compared to what they would pay as an all sports member of the MWC by having the rest of their sports in the Big West which is essentially a California bus league (+Hawaii).
San Diego St is in a position where the MWC makes the most sense but the MWC has opted to be dicks about the situation and make San Diego St pay for a move that was ultimately Boise's idea. Where on the other side you have Mike Aresco of the Big East begging you to stay in his league.
Personally I would like to see the MWC wisen up, drop the air of pretension and recognize that SDSU is essential to the health of the MWC. San Diego is one of the MWC's biggest television markets so it makes sense to hold onto the Aztecs. Also, it seems in poor taste to be creating bad blood with San Diego St. If these schools are going to coexist peacefully in the same league then they need to drop the threats of not admitting SDSU and let them in and waive their MWC exit fees and MWC entrance fees. Leaving the Aztecs in the Big East is bad for business. A Jilted Aztec program is going to be looking to get back at the MWC and potentially deprive it of Frenso St or UNLV by working with the Big East and Big West to bring them into a football membership in the former and all sports member of the later.
Part of the deal the MWC made with Boise St is that San Diego St has the right-of-first-refusal until January 31st. What this deal didn't specify was what terms the MWC had to offer San Diego St. So San Diego St is sitting in limbo. The MWC schools are being childish and trying to take the Aztecs to the cleaners for their transgressions (which Boise St encouraged them to make but somehow has gotten forgiven for).
San Diego is stuck in this bad situation where they are stuck in between the Big East and Mountain West. The Big East deal wasn't incredibly awful for SDSU. It meant paying a ton to fly the football team to the other side of the country but in the long run the athletic department was set to save $100,000 a year compared to what they would pay as an all sports member of the MWC by having the rest of their sports in the Big West which is essentially a California bus league (+Hawaii).
San Diego St is in a position where the MWC makes the most sense but the MWC has opted to be dicks about the situation and make San Diego St pay for a move that was ultimately Boise's idea. Where on the other side you have Mike Aresco of the Big East begging you to stay in his league.
Personally I would like to see the MWC wisen up, drop the air of pretension and recognize that SDSU is essential to the health of the MWC. San Diego is one of the MWC's biggest television markets so it makes sense to hold onto the Aztecs. Also, it seems in poor taste to be creating bad blood with San Diego St. If these schools are going to coexist peacefully in the same league then they need to drop the threats of not admitting SDSU and let them in and waive their MWC exit fees and MWC entrance fees. Leaving the Aztecs in the Big East is bad for business. A Jilted Aztec program is going to be looking to get back at the MWC and potentially deprive it of Frenso St or UNLV by working with the Big East and Big West to bring them into a football membership in the former and all sports member of the later.
Tuesday, January 8, 2013
(Big) EAST or (Mountain) WEST?: The Waiting Game Continues
The fates of several schools' athletic programs are hanging in a state of limbo right now. Ultimately a handful of schools have the power to make or break conferences, one conference commissioner is trying to orchestrate a double play that could cement his league as the undisputed 6th best, and another desperately tries to hold onto what his league's western assets.
The MWC has the power to court 2-4 schools from the states of Texas and Oklahoma--namely from the pool of Houston, Southern Methodist, Tulsa, UTEP, and UTSA and if they are successful in attracting the right schools could strike a major blow to the Big East.
On the other hand Mike Aresco is trying to keep the Big East intact and secure its future albeit a diminished one in the new world order of college football. Aresco's Big East is down to 10 members in 2014 and presumably 11 in 2015 if Navy follows through with their plans to join. He desperately needs to keep both Houston and Southern Methodist in the league to keep it alive.
Fortunately for Aresco, it seems Southern Methodist prefers life in the Big East than the western frontier. SMU would be very comfortable with fellow private schools Tulane (already in the BE in 2014) and Tulsa (presumed to be the next BE target), and would like to see Houston honor their commitment and be a Big East member as well.
Houston on the other hand seems to be more open to the MWC's overtures. No one from Houston's administration has made any statements affirming their loyalty to the BE only that they were unhappy with Boise's decision to forego their BE plans.
The other schools in the region are essentially pawns in this chess match between the MWC and BE:
Tulsa seems to be in a good position no matter what happens. They will no doubt end up in either the BE or the MWC when all the dominoes fall. The best case scenario would be to be with both Houston and SMU in the BE. Going with them to the MWC wouldn't be bad either nor would ending up in the BE with SMU (and Tulane and Memphis) but without Houston. There's even the chance of going to the MWC with Houston too. In the worst case scenario they end up in the BE with the aforementioned Tulane and Memphis and probably some other Texas school while Houston and SMU end up in the MWC.
UTEP's future is somewhat more tenuous. The Miners need at least Houston to decide that the MWC is the way to go. This could give them an opening into the MWC and a lifeline out of the much depleted C-USA. UTEP would have to beat out other suitors to get the spot though---Tulsa, UTSA, and even BYU if they are interested, could be in the mix for that spot.
UTSA is in a bit of a bind. They clearly have loads of potential but they seem to be overlooked by both leagues at the moment. If the MWC decided to go to 16 they could slip in while in the BE it seems as though academic snobbery could prevent UTSA from even becoming part of the conversation. It looks like they are probably going to have to bide their time in C-USA for a few more years until conference shifts occur elsewhere.
Rice has the potential to slip into the Big East if Houston passes on Big East membership. despite being a program living in the past and far removed from their glory years they have powerful friends in Southern Methodist and Tulane that could help them make them to jump. Tulsa is no doubt the BE's first choice but they could be the BE's second pick.
Southern Miss would love to get a BE call up but Southern Miss cannot even be considered by the BE until they get their Texas situation settled.
While not in the same region as the others, UMass is another school eying the BE. They too are left playing the waiting game.
The MWC has the power to court 2-4 schools from the states of Texas and Oklahoma--namely from the pool of Houston, Southern Methodist, Tulsa, UTEP, and UTSA and if they are successful in attracting the right schools could strike a major blow to the Big East.
On the other hand Mike Aresco is trying to keep the Big East intact and secure its future albeit a diminished one in the new world order of college football. Aresco's Big East is down to 10 members in 2014 and presumably 11 in 2015 if Navy follows through with their plans to join. He desperately needs to keep both Houston and Southern Methodist in the league to keep it alive.
Fortunately for Aresco, it seems Southern Methodist prefers life in the Big East than the western frontier. SMU would be very comfortable with fellow private schools Tulane (already in the BE in 2014) and Tulsa (presumed to be the next BE target), and would like to see Houston honor their commitment and be a Big East member as well.
Houston on the other hand seems to be more open to the MWC's overtures. No one from Houston's administration has made any statements affirming their loyalty to the BE only that they were unhappy with Boise's decision to forego their BE plans.
The other schools in the region are essentially pawns in this chess match between the MWC and BE:
Tulsa seems to be in a good position no matter what happens. They will no doubt end up in either the BE or the MWC when all the dominoes fall. The best case scenario would be to be with both Houston and SMU in the BE. Going with them to the MWC wouldn't be bad either nor would ending up in the BE with SMU (and Tulane and Memphis) but without Houston. There's even the chance of going to the MWC with Houston too. In the worst case scenario they end up in the BE with the aforementioned Tulane and Memphis and probably some other Texas school while Houston and SMU end up in the MWC.
UTEP's future is somewhat more tenuous. The Miners need at least Houston to decide that the MWC is the way to go. This could give them an opening into the MWC and a lifeline out of the much depleted C-USA. UTEP would have to beat out other suitors to get the spot though---Tulsa, UTSA, and even BYU if they are interested, could be in the mix for that spot.
UTSA is in a bit of a bind. They clearly have loads of potential but they seem to be overlooked by both leagues at the moment. If the MWC decided to go to 16 they could slip in while in the BE it seems as though academic snobbery could prevent UTSA from even becoming part of the conversation. It looks like they are probably going to have to bide their time in C-USA for a few more years until conference shifts occur elsewhere.
Rice has the potential to slip into the Big East if Houston passes on Big East membership. despite being a program living in the past and far removed from their glory years they have powerful friends in Southern Methodist and Tulane that could help them make them to jump. Tulsa is no doubt the BE's first choice but they could be the BE's second pick.
Southern Miss would love to get a BE call up but Southern Miss cannot even be considered by the BE until they get their Texas situation settled.
While not in the same region as the others, UMass is another school eying the BE. They too are left playing the waiting game.
Wednesday, December 26, 2012
An 18-team Mountain West Conference---One big happy family
I previously posted a blog entry where I argued for a 16-member MWC that resembled the old 16-member WAC. In that article I considered Boise St, San Diego St, Houston, and Southern Methodist as locks for this conference and speculated that BYU, Tulsa, UTSA, and UTEP could be considered to help fill out the league. But what if they were able to add all of those schools and have 18 members? Sure the league would be over-sized but the champion of this league would have to be a lock for the new football playoffs. You could set it up two different ways--two divisions of 9 or three divisions of 6:
East--SMU, Houston, Tulsa, UTSA, UTEP, New Mexico, Air Force, Colorado St, Wyoming
West--BYU, Utah St, Boise St, Nevada, UNLV, San Jose St, Fresno St, San Diego St, Hawaii
OR
Pacific--Nevada, UNLV, San Jose St, Fresno St, San Diego St, Hawaii
Mountain--BYU, Utah St, Boise St, Air Force, Colorado St, Wyoming
Central--SMU, Houston, Tulsa, UTSA, UTEP, New Mexico
Each of these models would require some creative scheduling but I think they do I good job of keeping rivals together. The likelihood of something like this getting adopted is probably minuscule because a larger conference diminishes the value that the more profitable schools bring the league but its an intriguing thought.
East--SMU, Houston, Tulsa, UTSA, UTEP, New Mexico, Air Force, Colorado St, Wyoming
West--BYU, Utah St, Boise St, Nevada, UNLV, San Jose St, Fresno St, San Diego St, Hawaii
OR
Pacific--Nevada, UNLV, San Jose St, Fresno St, San Diego St, Hawaii
Mountain--BYU, Utah St, Boise St, Air Force, Colorado St, Wyoming
Central--SMU, Houston, Tulsa, UTSA, UTEP, New Mexico
Each of these models would require some creative scheduling but I think they do I good job of keeping rivals together. The likelihood of something like this getting adopted is probably minuscule because a larger conference diminishes the value that the more profitable schools bring the league but its an intriguing thought.
Thursday, December 20, 2012
One of the Northeastern Conferences is going to Die
In they nasty, uncivilized world of college sports realignment there are sometimes casualties. It has happened before and it has happened again. Sometimes a band of misfits steps in and takes over a dying conference when its on death's doorstep like Seattle, Utah Valley, Cal St Bakersfield, Gran Canyon, Texas-PanAm, and Chicago St have done with the WAC. However, as a result of the spawning of the Catholic 7 Conference--it's just a working name, I'm sure it will eventually be called the Big East--I think another conference will in turn die. The round of realignment caused by this new league's formation will surely leave one of the conferences in the northeastern United States so depleted that they will have to close up shop. Let's look at the conferences and what their fates might be:
Catholic 7
Number of Members: 7
States Covered: Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Washington D.C., Illinois, Wisconsin
The Scoop: This league is going to grow and it will be at the expense of the Atlantic 10. Expect them to take at least 3 A-10 schools with Xavier, Butler, and Dayton being the first to go and St Louis, Duquesne, Richmond and the MVC's Creighton also being in consideration.
Atlantic Ten
Number of Members: 14
States Covered: MA, RI, NY, PA, DC, VA, OH, IN, MO
The Scoop: The A-10 is going to be striped of its best schools, there is no doubt about that. The question is how many and will the Midwestern flank be completely gone? Even if they lose 3 of their 4 Midwestern schools they may want to jettison the fourth (likely St Louis) because there are no more candidates left in the Midwest for A-10 inclusion. The A-10 is not without options. The CAA is a likely source for new members with both private school options--Northeastern, Hofstra, and Drexel, as well as public ones--George Mason. If the A-10 options don't suit their fancy or their aren't enough there are also additional private school options from the MAAC as well as public schools in America East that they could choose from. I don't see this conference dying but the direction their reloading takes may very well determine which conference does.
Colonial Athletic Association
Number of Members: 10
States Covered: MA, NY, PA, DE, MD, VA, NC, SC
The Scoop: This conference is still trying to recover from its last round of defections. These conference's large footprint and hybrid conference model makes it particularly vulnerable to being raided to the point that it cannot be repaired. It the A-10 guts the geographic middle of the conference it will be difficult for the northern and southern wings to stick together as a conference. Furthermore, this conference is vulnerable to raids from conferences beneath it in stature as a result of geography and academic emphasis. William & Mary and possibly Towson could very well be lured by the scholarly focused Patriot League. If they were to lose members to both the A-10 and Patriot League the Northern schools could very well find themselves petitioning to join a conference like America East while the Southern schools (UNC-Wilmington and College of Charleston) would be left looking for a southern home. The northern schools joining up with America East might not be a terrible idea because a number of the schools are former AmEast members.
America East:
Number of Members: 8
States Covered: ME, NH, VT, CT, NY, MD
The Scoop: This conference is made up of 7 public schools and one private one, Hartford. The current small size of the league is concerning because the loss of just a few members could kill the league. The CAA should find many of these schools to be attractive replacements if that conference is in a state where their remaining membership can reach a consensus on who to add. America East would be wise to make a pre-emptive strike on the CAA and hope they can force the CAA to negotiate terms amicable to America East.
Patriot
Number of Members: 10
States Covered: MA, NY, PA, MD, DC
The Scoop: This conference is not at risk of losing members but they could become predatory and try to take advantage of the weakened state of other leagues--particularly the CAA. They could easily grab William and Mary and Towson (both football schools, as well as Richmond's football program) to solidify their own football conference. They have been proactive in recent months, taking Boston University and Loyola of Maryland when there was no threat of any Patriot schools departing. Should they be proactive again it could hasten the death of another league by denying them two potential members.
MAAC
Number of Members: 11
States Covered: CT, NY, NJ
The Scoop: This private school league recently suffered a defection (Loyola of MD) and in turn added two replacements--Quinnipiac and Monmouth, and nearly added a third in Wagner. The MAAC has some private schools that could be attractive to the A-10 like Siena. Should this league suffer losses and as result decide to find its equilibrium at 12 it could spell disaster to the league beneath it--the NEC. Much like the Patriot, this league is not at risk at folding but could be a key player in causing the death of another.
NEC
Number of Members: 10
States Covered: RI, CT, NY, NJ, PA, MD
The Scoop: The NEC is the Northeast's gateway league--its where DII upgrades find their first home in the big leagues. This makes the NEC particularly vulnerable when realignment has a cascade effect, which it almost always does. Sponsorship of a football conference was once the NEC's chief bargaining chip but that might not be enough to keep members in the league as Monmouth has left and Wagner would have too had their been enough yes votes for their inclusion in the MAAC. This is primarily a private school league but its lone public school Central Connecticut St has longed to be part of America East and if America East feels like there is a threat to their stability then the Blue Devils will be gone. On the opposite end of the geographic footprint Robert Morris has been hoping to land an invite to the Horizon League which currently has an opening but that league has been tightlipped about their own expansion intentions (or lack thereof). This is also the go to place for the MAAC when they need new members and Wagner is next on deck to depart. The NEC will no doubt see changes in this expansion--either by being forced to shut its doors or dig deep into DII for replacements or by being a parachute conference for refugees of another conference that fell apart.
My money is on CAA or AmEast being the conference sacrificed. I just see too much infighting among the CAA's members and I just don't see the Northern and Southern wings cooperating and the temptation to go elsewhere will just be too great for George Mason, Drexel, Northeastern, Hofstra, William & Mary, and Towson should a more stable offer come there way. America East could easily swoop in and swallow up most of the leftovers after the A-10 and Patriot have taken what they wanted.
The other way this could go is that the CAA is able to keep itself together but they hit America East so hard the remaining schools are forced to scatter or pull in replacements to the point that the NEC dries up or the CAA offers America East a full merger (or vice versa) and the other party accepts.
Catholic 7
Number of Members: 7
States Covered: Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Washington D.C., Illinois, Wisconsin
The Scoop: This league is going to grow and it will be at the expense of the Atlantic 10. Expect them to take at least 3 A-10 schools with Xavier, Butler, and Dayton being the first to go and St Louis, Duquesne, Richmond and the MVC's Creighton also being in consideration.
Atlantic Ten
Number of Members: 14
States Covered: MA, RI, NY, PA, DC, VA, OH, IN, MO
The Scoop: The A-10 is going to be striped of its best schools, there is no doubt about that. The question is how many and will the Midwestern flank be completely gone? Even if they lose 3 of their 4 Midwestern schools they may want to jettison the fourth (likely St Louis) because there are no more candidates left in the Midwest for A-10 inclusion. The A-10 is not without options. The CAA is a likely source for new members with both private school options--Northeastern, Hofstra, and Drexel, as well as public ones--George Mason. If the A-10 options don't suit their fancy or their aren't enough there are also additional private school options from the MAAC as well as public schools in America East that they could choose from. I don't see this conference dying but the direction their reloading takes may very well determine which conference does.
Colonial Athletic Association
Number of Members: 10
States Covered: MA, NY, PA, DE, MD, VA, NC, SC
The Scoop: This conference is still trying to recover from its last round of defections. These conference's large footprint and hybrid conference model makes it particularly vulnerable to being raided to the point that it cannot be repaired. It the A-10 guts the geographic middle of the conference it will be difficult for the northern and southern wings to stick together as a conference. Furthermore, this conference is vulnerable to raids from conferences beneath it in stature as a result of geography and academic emphasis. William & Mary and possibly Towson could very well be lured by the scholarly focused Patriot League. If they were to lose members to both the A-10 and Patriot League the Northern schools could very well find themselves petitioning to join a conference like America East while the Southern schools (UNC-Wilmington and College of Charleston) would be left looking for a southern home. The northern schools joining up with America East might not be a terrible idea because a number of the schools are former AmEast members.
America East:
Number of Members: 8
States Covered: ME, NH, VT, CT, NY, MD
The Scoop: This conference is made up of 7 public schools and one private one, Hartford. The current small size of the league is concerning because the loss of just a few members could kill the league. The CAA should find many of these schools to be attractive replacements if that conference is in a state where their remaining membership can reach a consensus on who to add. America East would be wise to make a pre-emptive strike on the CAA and hope they can force the CAA to negotiate terms amicable to America East.
Patriot
Number of Members: 10
States Covered: MA, NY, PA, MD, DC
The Scoop: This conference is not at risk of losing members but they could become predatory and try to take advantage of the weakened state of other leagues--particularly the CAA. They could easily grab William and Mary and Towson (both football schools, as well as Richmond's football program) to solidify their own football conference. They have been proactive in recent months, taking Boston University and Loyola of Maryland when there was no threat of any Patriot schools departing. Should they be proactive again it could hasten the death of another league by denying them two potential members.
MAAC
Number of Members: 11
States Covered: CT, NY, NJ
The Scoop: This private school league recently suffered a defection (Loyola of MD) and in turn added two replacements--Quinnipiac and Monmouth, and nearly added a third in Wagner. The MAAC has some private schools that could be attractive to the A-10 like Siena. Should this league suffer losses and as result decide to find its equilibrium at 12 it could spell disaster to the league beneath it--the NEC. Much like the Patriot, this league is not at risk at folding but could be a key player in causing the death of another.
NEC
Number of Members: 10
States Covered: RI, CT, NY, NJ, PA, MD
The Scoop: The NEC is the Northeast's gateway league--its where DII upgrades find their first home in the big leagues. This makes the NEC particularly vulnerable when realignment has a cascade effect, which it almost always does. Sponsorship of a football conference was once the NEC's chief bargaining chip but that might not be enough to keep members in the league as Monmouth has left and Wagner would have too had their been enough yes votes for their inclusion in the MAAC. This is primarily a private school league but its lone public school Central Connecticut St has longed to be part of America East and if America East feels like there is a threat to their stability then the Blue Devils will be gone. On the opposite end of the geographic footprint Robert Morris has been hoping to land an invite to the Horizon League which currently has an opening but that league has been tightlipped about their own expansion intentions (or lack thereof). This is also the go to place for the MAAC when they need new members and Wagner is next on deck to depart. The NEC will no doubt see changes in this expansion--either by being forced to shut its doors or dig deep into DII for replacements or by being a parachute conference for refugees of another conference that fell apart.
My money is on CAA or AmEast being the conference sacrificed. I just see too much infighting among the CAA's members and I just don't see the Northern and Southern wings cooperating and the temptation to go elsewhere will just be too great for George Mason, Drexel, Northeastern, Hofstra, William & Mary, and Towson should a more stable offer come there way. America East could easily swoop in and swallow up most of the leftovers after the A-10 and Patriot have taken what they wanted.
The other way this could go is that the CAA is able to keep itself together but they hit America East so hard the remaining schools are forced to scatter or pull in replacements to the point that the NEC dries up or the CAA offers America East a full merger (or vice versa) and the other party accepts.
Friday, December 14, 2012
What now for Big East Football?
The departure of the Catholic 7 really jeopardizes things for the Big East football conference. As it stands now, this is what we are looking at for 2014:
UConn
Temple
Cincinnati
East Carolina (fb only)
South Florida
Central Florida
Memphis
Tulane
Southern Methodist
Houston
Boise St (fb only)
San Diego St (fb only)
*Navy is set to join for football only in 2015.
It's hard to tell if all of these schools will still be there and how this league can go about the rebuilding process. UConn and Cincinnati are still actively trying to woo a suitor from the Power 5 Conferences and escape the Big East. The others would be too if they thought they had a real shot at hearing a yes. Navy may want to back out of this mess. You also have the real possibility of the pair of Western Football-Only members backing out and returning to full membership in the Mountain West Conference. There is even the threat that they could take the pair of Texas schools with them.
The first thing the Big East needs to do is give East Carolina full membership. It's not like their are any Catholic schools who are going to veto the move any more. Doing so gives the Big East or whatever the league will be called, an air of stability.
BEST CASE SCENARIO
The next thing to do is gauge where Boise St and San Diego St stand on the future of the conference and what it will take to keep them part of the league. This might require going to a 16-member all-sports model and letting those two schools pick out western schools to round out the membership. Some of the schools that have previously turned down football-only membership like Air Force and Fresno St might change their mind if it was an all-sports offer and there would be an 8-team division of schools west of the Mississippi. This league might look something like this:
East--UConn, Temple, Cincinnati, East Carolina, South Florida, Central Florida, Memphis, Tulane
West--Houston, SMU, Tulsa, UTEP, Air Force, Boise St, San Diego St, Fresno St
I just threw out a few names--they could be swapped for just about any upper tier C-USA West or MWC member or even BYU if they could somehow get them on board.
The repercussions of this could be that the MWC limps away so weakened it has no choice but to add New Mexico St and Idaho or talk merger with the depleted Sunbelt. For every school C-USA loses they will no doubt go after a Sunbelt school to fill the void with Western Kentucky being the first to get the call up.
For a number of reasons I really do not like this idea. I am not a fan of a coast-to-coast league and I think that Boise St and San Diego St would be better served by sticking with the MWC and trying to coax SMU and Houston to come join them rather than putting their faith in a UConn and Cincy led conference whose name has forever been tarnished.
BOISE ST AND SAN DIEGO ST ARE NO LONGER INTERESTED SCENARIO
If Boise St and San Diego St cannot be kept in the fold then the Big East will have no choice but to rebuild within the footprint of the 2005-2012 version of C-USA. Adding 2 more members would get the league up to 12 members and the league would at least be in stable condition. However, with the loss of Boise St and San Diego St the Big East cannot be picky about markets or pick a developing program. They will need to pick someone who is solid now if they are going to be able to build a strength-of-schedule for their conference champion that will top that of the now strengthened Mountain West Conference. I think this is where Tulsa would come into play for member #11. After that it gets hazy. The other 2005-2012 C-USA schools are not that hot: Marshall, UAB, Southern Miss, Rice, UTEP. The Big East would either have to hold at 11, add one of those, or take a chance on a start up like UTSA.
BOISE ST AND SAN DIEGO ST ARE NO LONGER INTERESTED AND NOT ONLY THAT, THEY ARE TAKING THE TEXAS SCHOOLS WITH THEM SCENARIO
This would be the worst case scenario and if the MWC went to 16 and took two more programs in the vicinity of Texas (like Tulsa and Tulane) then things for the remaining Big East schools would be even worse. This would, at best, leave the Big East with:
UConn
Temple
Cincinnati
East Carolina
USF
UCF
Memphis
Tulane
The schools who departed C-USA can't simply go back because C-USA already replaced them with new schools like Old Dominion, Charlotte, FAU, FIU, Middle Tennessee, LA Tech, UTSA, and North Texas. They would have to get at least 4 of the 6 C-USA schools who still have voting rights (this could become 4 out of 5 should Tulsa or UTEP go to the MWC or 3 of the 4 if both go) to vote to dissolve C-USA and then invite those schools to all join the remaining Big East schools. Dissolution would save the C-USA schools millions each. This would then mean that all of the schools who were scheduled to become C-USA schools would have to join forces with the Sunbelt which potentially would be a 16 member football league with two non-fb schools.
UConn
Temple
Cincinnati
East Carolina (fb only)
South Florida
Central Florida
Memphis
Tulane
Southern Methodist
Houston
Boise St (fb only)
San Diego St (fb only)
*Navy is set to join for football only in 2015.
It's hard to tell if all of these schools will still be there and how this league can go about the rebuilding process. UConn and Cincinnati are still actively trying to woo a suitor from the Power 5 Conferences and escape the Big East. The others would be too if they thought they had a real shot at hearing a yes. Navy may want to back out of this mess. You also have the real possibility of the pair of Western Football-Only members backing out and returning to full membership in the Mountain West Conference. There is even the threat that they could take the pair of Texas schools with them.
The first thing the Big East needs to do is give East Carolina full membership. It's not like their are any Catholic schools who are going to veto the move any more. Doing so gives the Big East or whatever the league will be called, an air of stability.
BEST CASE SCENARIO
The next thing to do is gauge where Boise St and San Diego St stand on the future of the conference and what it will take to keep them part of the league. This might require going to a 16-member all-sports model and letting those two schools pick out western schools to round out the membership. Some of the schools that have previously turned down football-only membership like Air Force and Fresno St might change their mind if it was an all-sports offer and there would be an 8-team division of schools west of the Mississippi. This league might look something like this:
East--UConn, Temple, Cincinnati, East Carolina, South Florida, Central Florida, Memphis, Tulane
West--Houston, SMU, Tulsa, UTEP, Air Force, Boise St, San Diego St, Fresno St
I just threw out a few names--they could be swapped for just about any upper tier C-USA West or MWC member or even BYU if they could somehow get them on board.
The repercussions of this could be that the MWC limps away so weakened it has no choice but to add New Mexico St and Idaho or talk merger with the depleted Sunbelt. For every school C-USA loses they will no doubt go after a Sunbelt school to fill the void with Western Kentucky being the first to get the call up.
For a number of reasons I really do not like this idea. I am not a fan of a coast-to-coast league and I think that Boise St and San Diego St would be better served by sticking with the MWC and trying to coax SMU and Houston to come join them rather than putting their faith in a UConn and Cincy led conference whose name has forever been tarnished.
BOISE ST AND SAN DIEGO ST ARE NO LONGER INTERESTED SCENARIO
If Boise St and San Diego St cannot be kept in the fold then the Big East will have no choice but to rebuild within the footprint of the 2005-2012 version of C-USA. Adding 2 more members would get the league up to 12 members and the league would at least be in stable condition. However, with the loss of Boise St and San Diego St the Big East cannot be picky about markets or pick a developing program. They will need to pick someone who is solid now if they are going to be able to build a strength-of-schedule for their conference champion that will top that of the now strengthened Mountain West Conference. I think this is where Tulsa would come into play for member #11. After that it gets hazy. The other 2005-2012 C-USA schools are not that hot: Marshall, UAB, Southern Miss, Rice, UTEP. The Big East would either have to hold at 11, add one of those, or take a chance on a start up like UTSA.
BOISE ST AND SAN DIEGO ST ARE NO LONGER INTERESTED AND NOT ONLY THAT, THEY ARE TAKING THE TEXAS SCHOOLS WITH THEM SCENARIO
This would be the worst case scenario and if the MWC went to 16 and took two more programs in the vicinity of Texas (like Tulsa and Tulane) then things for the remaining Big East schools would be even worse. This would, at best, leave the Big East with:
UConn
Temple
Cincinnati
East Carolina
USF
UCF
Memphis
Tulane
The schools who departed C-USA can't simply go back because C-USA already replaced them with new schools like Old Dominion, Charlotte, FAU, FIU, Middle Tennessee, LA Tech, UTSA, and North Texas. They would have to get at least 4 of the 6 C-USA schools who still have voting rights (this could become 4 out of 5 should Tulsa or UTEP go to the MWC or 3 of the 4 if both go) to vote to dissolve C-USA and then invite those schools to all join the remaining Big East schools. Dissolution would save the C-USA schools millions each. This would then mean that all of the schools who were scheduled to become C-USA schools would have to join forces with the Sunbelt which potentially would be a 16 member football league with two non-fb schools.
The Catholic 7
The consortium of schools known as the Catholic 7 are parting ways with the football element of the Big East, that much we know. What we don't know is what their new league will look like or what it will be called. There are plenty of candidates out there for inclusion, most of whom come from the Atlantic 10. Here they are:
Xavier--this Jesuit school in Cincinnati is most definitely a lock to join the Catholic 7. They have a large fan base and plenty of basketball pedigree
St Louis--another Midwestern, big city, Catholic school. The Bilikens have had their ups and downs but right now they are on an upswing so I think they will be going too.
Butler--4 years ago I would have laughed at the notion of Butler joining up with the Catholic 7. Two National Championship appearances later things are different. No, they aren't Catholic, but they are a private school in a large Midwestern city in a state that passionate about basketball. had Notre Dame still been with the Catholic 7 they might have gotten passed over but I think they are definitely in the mix and one Minnesota newspaper has reported that the Bulldogs and Xavier were locks for membership in the Catholic 7
Dayton--an excellent Catholic basketball school in the Midwest with tons of success and pedigree. The only downside is that they are not in large city and they are in the shadow of Xavier.
Creighton--this Catholic school in Omaha has been mentioned frequently in expansion talks. I'm not a huge fan of their inclusion but they are definitely part of the discussion. They are a solid team however and they would deliver a new market, albeit not a huge one.
Duquesne--Duquesne hasn't had the most success of these candidates in recent years but they are in a large market that would help bridge the geographic gap between the Midwestern and East Coast flanks of the conference. They are a Catholic school too which might help their candidacy but they haven't really been mentioned much in discussion talks
Richmond--this private school isn't Catholic but they are a basketball power and they would provide a southern travel partner for Georgetown. Their name hasn't come up much in the expansion articles so far but I wouldn't rule them out quite yet.
If the Catholic 7 admitted all of these candidates into their conference they'd have 14 schools and a nice divisional split between the East Coast and Midwest. I wouldn't be surprised if they only went with 12 members in order to concentrate the wealth. The following weeks should reveal who gets in and who is left in the Atlantic 10.
Xavier--this Jesuit school in Cincinnati is most definitely a lock to join the Catholic 7. They have a large fan base and plenty of basketball pedigree
St Louis--another Midwestern, big city, Catholic school. The Bilikens have had their ups and downs but right now they are on an upswing so I think they will be going too.
Butler--4 years ago I would have laughed at the notion of Butler joining up with the Catholic 7. Two National Championship appearances later things are different. No, they aren't Catholic, but they are a private school in a large Midwestern city in a state that passionate about basketball. had Notre Dame still been with the Catholic 7 they might have gotten passed over but I think they are definitely in the mix and one Minnesota newspaper has reported that the Bulldogs and Xavier were locks for membership in the Catholic 7
Dayton--an excellent Catholic basketball school in the Midwest with tons of success and pedigree. The only downside is that they are not in large city and they are in the shadow of Xavier.
Creighton--this Catholic school in Omaha has been mentioned frequently in expansion talks. I'm not a huge fan of their inclusion but they are definitely part of the discussion. They are a solid team however and they would deliver a new market, albeit not a huge one.
Duquesne--Duquesne hasn't had the most success of these candidates in recent years but they are in a large market that would help bridge the geographic gap between the Midwestern and East Coast flanks of the conference. They are a Catholic school too which might help their candidacy but they haven't really been mentioned much in discussion talks
Richmond--this private school isn't Catholic but they are a basketball power and they would provide a southern travel partner for Georgetown. Their name hasn't come up much in the expansion articles so far but I wouldn't rule them out quite yet.
If the Catholic 7 admitted all of these candidates into their conference they'd have 14 schools and a nice divisional split between the East Coast and Midwest. I wouldn't be surprised if they only went with 12 members in order to concentrate the wealth. The following weeks should reveal who gets in and who is left in the Atlantic 10.
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