Disbanding the WAC

The Western Athletic Conference was once a strong and proud mid major.  in 1984, BYU won a national title in football under their conference banner.  Over expansion in 1996, an expansion that I firmly believe would have worked if the schools involved would have remained patient and allowed it to mature rather than 8 members, mostly from the old guard abandoning it to create the Mountain West Conference.  We all know the story that followed--Utah and Texas Christian went on to BCS bowl games as did WAC member Boise St and when it looked as if they were going get an AQ bid to the BCS the AQ conferences cherry-picked theMWC which in turn did the same to the WAC.  Today, the WAC is a shadow of its former self.  San Jose St, its longest tenured member, was part of that 1996 expansion.  The league only has 7 participants in football and 2 are expansion teams from FCS.  To stay afloat non-football schools were brought in so it currently looks like such:

San Jose St (1996)
Louisiana Tech (2001)
Idaho (2005)
New Mexico St (2005)
Utah St (2005)
UT-San Antonio (2012)
Texas St (2012)
Denver (2012) -no football
Seattle (2012) -no football
UT-Arlington (2012) no football
In addition Boise St is slated to bring all of its sports but football back to the league in 2013.

The league will only survive if it can bring in more schools from FCS and while there are plenty of schools who could potentially make the move (Montana, Montana St, Portland St, Sacramento St) none of them are foolish enough to risk investing in an upgrade to a conference that is on the verge of falling apart.  The current state of the MWC and Conference USA as both of those leagues will be below full strength after experiencing defections to the Big East.  The WAC will inevitably be where they go to replenish their numbers as its ripe for the taking and no school would turn them down to stay on this sinking ship. At this point, the loss of of even two schools would put this league under.  Below I'll discuss where I believe each of the current WAC schools will be headed or at least what they should hope for when the league finally disbands.

San Jose St
San Jose St is one of the schools who has the brightest future.  Since they are in the Bay Area I think the MWC will surely pick the Spartans up.  If for some reason they don't their back up plan should be the Big West with their football playing at the FCS level in the Big Sky.  MAY 4TH UPDATE: HEADED TO THE MWC

Utah St
Utah St is another program that I think will bounce back and get a MWC invite.  They got one once before when the MWC launched countermeasures against the WAC when they WAC offered BYU a home for their Olympic sports.  Utah St somewhat foolishly decided to stay true to the WAC while Nevada and Fresno St jumped at the opportunity to upgrade.  Utah St fills a giant whole in the middle of the MWC footprint left vacant by BYU and Utah.  The Utah St Aggies will be a MWC school.  MAY 4TH UPDATE: HEADED TO THE MWC

New Mexico St
I believe these Aggies are also MWC bound but their is a chance that their instate rival might block them.  C-USA could be an alternative but it would require UTEP to actively campaign for them and for UTEP's wishes to be heard over all the various factions within that league.  Worst case scenario for New Mexico St is the Sunbelt, a conference that they were briefly in from 2001-2005. However, if the Sunbelt decides to go another direction with some of their eastern candidates the Aggies could be stuck in conference purgatory trying to hold the WAC together or face dropping to FCS and going to the Big Sky or Southland.

Idaho
Unlike the rest of the WAC expansion class of 2005 I do not think Idaho has a happy future as an FBS program.  Boise St far outshines the Vandals within their own state and the Kibbie Dome, home of the Vandals, only seats 16,000 which is far below the standard set for FBS membership.  There is no reason for the MWC to offer Idaho any charity so I think Idaho needs to come to the realization that their future is in FCS and the Big Sky, who would glad welcome them back into the fold.  If they don't come to terms with the fact that their FBS football is dead in the water they, like NMSU, could be among the last trying to keep the league going.

UTSA
UTSA is a baby program; they played their first down of football in 2011.  But unlike the other WAC schools UTSA has incredible growth potential and the other conferences would be foolish to ignore a program that is likely to be the next South Florida.  UTSA is the biggest show in town in San Antonio I wouldn't be surprised if filling the Alamo Dome became a regular occurrence in a few years.  With that said either the MWC or C-USA will pick them up.  UTSA might even end up in the unique situation of having both leagues approach them as suitors and getting to choose their new home.  C-USA would likely have the geographic edge but I could also see the MWC pitching them with an offer to bring North Texas along too as a travel partner.  Like with New Mexico St, the Sunbelt is always there as a back up plan and a few years there incubating their nascent program could be a good temporary home until one of the bigger leagues gives them a call up.   APRIL 28, 2012 UTSA JOINS C-USA

Louisiana Tech
The Sunbelt has pretty much had an open invitation for the Bulldogs since they started sponsoring football in 2001 but Louisiana Tech stuck with what they felt was a more prestigious league, the WAC.  Louisiana Tech has always had their eye on C-USA and they could finally get their shot to play in the best mid-major conference in the South but if not I think the SBC buries their hatchet and brings in LA Tech.  MAY 4TH UPDATE: HEADED TO C-USA

Texas St
The Bobcats don't have the cache that their sister program UTSA has.  I don't see Texas St getting calls from the MWC or C-USA.  They are simply too small, too unproven, and don't have the upside that the Roadrunners have.  Fear not, the Sunbelt will take you in.  The Sunbelt is inevitably going to lose somebody, if not multiple teams, to C-USA and will need to reload.  SBC Commissioner Karl Benson, the same Karl Benson who invited them into the WAC, has gone on record saying that he wants to expand so Texas St will have a home in FBS football and will not have to face the embarrassment of returning to the Southland and FCS.  MAY 4TH UPDATE: HEADED TO SUNBELT

Denver and Seattle 
Ultimately I think the futures of these two schools are intertwined and where one goes the other could follow.  Both of these schools aspire to be in the elite private school league the West Coast Conference.  The WCC recently added the University of the Pacific to bring their membership to 10 and expanding to 12 and gaining a presence in these two large television markets would seem to be a prudent move for the conference to explore.  The other possibility is that the Big Sky would take on these two schools on and waive their "all members must have football" rule.  It would make geographic sense to do so.  There is also the possibility that the MWC would decide to take one of these schools to offset the the fact that Hawaii is only a football member so that in all other sports their would be an even number of members.  Denver could also be courted by the Summit League to refill its depleted ranks.

UT Arlington
Without a football program up and going (I'm speculating that when they were in talks with the WAC that they used reviving their dormant program as a lure) a WAC collapse would mean a return to the Southland.  The Southland is well aware of this fact and i believe it is for that reason that they are holding at 11, having only replaced UTSA and Texas St with Oral Roberts and Houston Baptist respectively, rather than return to full strength.  The fact that there are two programs that would slot nicely into the Southland, Arkansas-Little Rock and Texas-PanAmerican, but neither has been invited is a testament to the fact that Arlington still has a home there if they need it.  Another opportunity that the Mavericks might have would be if the SBC decided to balance UALR's lack of football.  However an SBC invitation might require a legitimate timeline to FBS football, a condition likely applicable to UALR too.  MAY 4TH UPDATE: FINALIZING TALKS WITH SUNBELT FOR MEMBERSHIP

Boise St
Boise St spurned the MWC for the Big East and that is something that the MWC schools will not soon forget.  While Boise St could be Hawaii's placeholder in all sports but football to even out the membership I don't see the MWC doing the Broncos any favors.  Boise's best bet would be for the Big Sky to take in their Olympic sports as they are in proximity to many of the old guard Big Sky members.  There is also a scenario in which the WAC runs out of members and closes down shop and the Big Sky denies them entry, forcing Boise (and by extension San Diego St) to bring all their sports back to the MWC.

Concluding Thoughts
The WAC is living on borrowed time.  As soon as the MWC and C-USA determine what format they are going to pursue for football and conference dominoes start falling schools will be jumping ship left and right.  In my most probable scenario Utah St and San Jose St will be the first to go, heading to the MWC (UTSA could take SJSU's slot).  Without enough schools to sponsor football the eastern teams will be be clawing to get into the SBC--UTSA is a shoe in, LA Tech is probable, with Texas St and New Mexico St vying for a slot too.  UT Arlington has a good chance of being admitted as well despite not having a football team.  That  leaves Idaho, Seattle*, Denver*, and Boise for sure, probably New Mew Mexico St, and possibly UT Arlington, and a slight chance that San Jose St is still around. The list of possible replacements is so short--Utah Valley, Cal St Bakersfield, UTPA, New Orleans--I don't see them holding the league together and eventually everyone will find a new home or be left independent.  MAY 4TH UPDATE: LEAGUE IS AT 5 MEMBERS: IDAHO, NEW MEXICO ST, BOISE ST*, DENVER*, AND SEATTLE*