Monday, April 9, 2012

Sunbelt Conference: Posturing for the Future

Today the Sunbelt welcomed Georgia St as its 11th football playing member and 12th total members as Arkansas-Little Rock doesn't field a team.  This is certainly a move to position the league for long term survival whereas the WAC is destined to fall.  I believe, either through insider information or just a hunch, that the SBC believes that C-USA and the MWC are both going to 10 members each.  The MWC seems to be going for Utah St and San Jose St while I believe C-USA's favors North Texas and Florida International.  So where does the Sunbelt fit in and why is the Georgia St move significant?  I believe that the SBC sees its future as being a 12-member football league.  The net gain after picking up Georgia St and losing North Texas and FIU is -1.  Adding 3 more would bring the league to the stated goal of 12.  The aforementioned move by the the MWC destabilizes the already fragile WAC and the SBC will be there to sweep up the refugees.  UTSA, and LA Tech seem like logical pick ups with the last slot being a toss up between New Mexico St and Texas St. If evening out things on the basketball side is a concern then UT-Arlington would be a logical counterbalance.  At this point the WAC is liable to close its doors--the only schools it could possibly add that would be desperate enough to join them are Cal St Bakersfield and Utah Valley St.

In the end, only 10 FBS conferences will remain.  FCS to FBS transition becomes virtually impossible as the SBC and MAC are the only entry-level conferences and both of them seem to be firm and stable after this SBC move and all the best candidates are either out west or along the East Coast.  The SBC would also be safely positioned to survive the next seismic shift in college football--the souring of the MWC/C-USA pact and the  renewed expansion of those leagues.  UTSA likely moves up with C-USA likely calling dibs since they have a solid Texas presence. The other C-USA promotion is a toss up between Middle Tennessee, South Alabama, and Florida Atlantic.  The MWC's options are somewhat slimmer with the Texas options are off the board; New Mexico St is really the only western school, aside from maybe Montana that would be of remote value.  Schools like Georgia Southern, Appalachian St, and Charlotte are there for SBC restocking.

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