The fates of several schools' athletic programs are hanging in a state of limbo right now. Ultimately a handful of schools have the power to make or break conferences, one conference commissioner is trying to orchestrate a double play that could cement his league as the undisputed 6th best, and another desperately tries to hold onto what his league's western assets.
The MWC has the power to court 2-4 schools from the states of Texas and Oklahoma--namely from the pool of Houston, Southern Methodist, Tulsa, UTEP, and UTSA and if they are successful in attracting the right schools could strike a major blow to the Big East.
On the other hand Mike Aresco is trying to keep the Big East intact and secure its future albeit a diminished one in the new world order of college football. Aresco's Big East is down to 10 members in 2014 and presumably 11 in 2015 if Navy follows through with their plans to join. He desperately needs to keep both Houston and Southern Methodist in the league to keep it alive.
Fortunately for Aresco, it seems Southern Methodist prefers life in the Big East than the western frontier. SMU would be very comfortable with fellow private schools Tulane (already in the BE in 2014) and Tulsa (presumed to be the next BE target), and would like to see Houston honor their commitment and be a Big East member as well.
Houston on the other hand seems to be more open to the MWC's overtures. No one from Houston's administration has made any statements affirming their loyalty to the BE only that they were unhappy with Boise's decision to forego their BE plans.
The other schools in the region are essentially pawns in this chess match between the MWC and BE:
Tulsa seems to be in a good position no matter what happens. They will no doubt end up in either the BE or the MWC when all the dominoes fall. The best case scenario would be to be with both Houston and SMU in the BE. Going with them to the MWC wouldn't be bad either nor would ending up in the BE with SMU (and Tulane and Memphis) but without Houston. There's even the chance of going to the MWC with Houston too. In the worst case scenario they end up in the BE with the aforementioned Tulane and Memphis and probably some other Texas school while Houston and SMU end up in the MWC.
UTEP's future is somewhat more tenuous. The Miners need at least Houston to decide that the MWC is the way to go. This could give them an opening into the MWC and a lifeline out of the much depleted C-USA. UTEP would have to beat out other suitors to get the spot though---Tulsa, UTSA, and even BYU if they are interested, could be in the mix for that spot.
UTSA is in a bit of a bind. They clearly have loads of potential but they seem to be overlooked by both leagues at the moment. If the MWC decided to go to 16 they could slip in while in the BE it seems as though academic snobbery could prevent UTSA from even becoming part of the conversation. It looks like they are probably going to have to bide their time in C-USA for a few more years until conference shifts occur elsewhere.
Rice has the potential to slip into the Big East if Houston passes on Big East membership. despite being a program living in the past and far removed from their glory years they have powerful friends in Southern Methodist and Tulane that could help them make them to jump. Tulsa is no doubt the BE's first choice but they could be the BE's second pick.
Southern Miss would love to get a BE call up but Southern Miss cannot even be considered by the BE until they get their Texas situation settled.
While not in the same region as the others, UMass is another school eying the BE. They too are left playing the waiting game.
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