C-USA has been one conference that has not shied away from radical expansion recently. In total they have lost six of the twelve members from their 2005 line up. It is expected that they will soon lose a seventh as Tulsa has set it's sights on the Big East and a reunion with many of its old conference mates. C-USA has not only restocked but raised their status quo from a 12 member league to a 14 member league. They've taken a fairly balanced approach to expansion--adding for both television markets and taking into consideration on field performance---North Texas, UTSA, FAU, FIU, Charlotte, Old Dominion, and to some extent Middle Tennessee augment the league's media presence in large southern cities while LA Tech and Middle Tennessee bring very competitive programs into the fold.
Tulsa's departure is probably going to necessitate adding at least one more member but they could go for three and bring league membership to 16 and in doing so probably cripple their less affluent rival the Sunbelt. Personally I am a fan of the Sunbelt and I would hate to see C-USA kill them just for the sake of eliminating rivals but college sports alignment is a cut throat world where only the most Darwinian and Machiavellian survive.
The options for C-USA are fairly obvious--there are the 8 Sunbelt football schools and New Mexico St available for discussion:
Western Kentucky--WKU is first on this list because they are the one of the most likely to get a call up. They have a good relationship and healthy rivalry with nearby Middle Tennessee and I think the Blue Raiders will campaign for, rather than try to block the Hill Toppers' inclusion.
UL Lafayette--The Ragin' Cajuns are among the top tier of the SBC. They have great attendance and they make bowl games most years. What they lack is a strong media market. There is also the fact that LA Tech styles itself the third best (if not 2nd best) school in Louisiana and may want to fend off competitors. For years the Bulldogs played in the far flung WAC rather than join the SBC because they felt they were superior to their instate rivals.
UL Monroe--Despite recent strong seasons the Warhawks prospects at getting a C-USA are even worse than UL Lafayette as they are the weaker of the two ULs and in LA Tech's backyard. They also have no television matket to speak of.
Arkansas St--the Redwolves don't have much of a market but their attendance and on field performance has been solid. On the bright side, C-USA has no schools within the state that would try to block them.
Troy--Good football, decent attendance, lousy location. UAB already gives them a presence in the state and I doubt the Blazers would want them in.
South Alabama--On the contrary, South Alabama is in Mobile which is an alright market. Including them probably means landing the GoDaddy.com Bowl and UAB is probably less likely to oppose their inclusion because unlike Troy, the Blazers are better than the Jaguars.
Georgia St--Great television market, lousy team, lousy attendance. People in Atlanta have yet to get excited about the Georgia St Panthers. Then again, expansion is often market driven so they could sneak in. They are just a start up and will hopefully get better...then again people said that about UAB two decades ago.
Texas St--The Bobcats could quickly become UTSA's little brother. Letting them in would give them in would solidify the san Antonio market and maybe get a sliver of Austin but the Bobcats are probably a superfluous add unless UTSA (and UTEP) are actively campaigning for them which I don't expect to happen.
New Mexico St--The lone non-SBC candidate. The only reason I see them getting in is if UTEP is pushing for them but UTEP is eying MWC membership so I am not sure that NMSU to C-USA is a realistic possibility. I'm under the impression that both UTEP and the MWC's New Mexico want to keep the Aggies down and I don't see either school having a sudden change of heart. It would also be silly for C-USA to replace a departed UTEP with NMSU because the loss of UTEP would allow the league to significantly shrink the conference footprint and eliminate some long and costly flights.
WKU is probably the first school to be taken by C-USA. If the idea is to indeed go to 16 then I think the next two call ups are Arkansas St and Georgia St. Should UTEP also leave necessitating 4 additions to get to 16 then either South Alabama or UL Lafayette would be the next in line.
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